The long slow squeeze - Extrapolating Global Oil Production

[skeptik]

An analysis by Stuart Staniford posted at The Oil Drum

Excerpt:
"Note that the world economy achieved 4-5% annual reductions in oil usage between 1979-1983 without collapsing. So I continue to believe that all this modeling suggests the future decline rates are within the adaptive capacity of the economy -- it's a slow squeeze, as I put it last month. I'm not saying that there won't be major economic hard times, but it does appear to me that peak oil is something that society can handle for quite some time to come, unless these models are just worthless."

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[acrowe]

It was my understanding that the reasons for the decline in use was mostly accounted for by the switch from oil to gas for power and very easy energy savings. Plus of course the hard recession.

No one thinks of using oil as a serious electric power source now, and we have picked a lot of the low hanging fruit in terms of energy saving (not that there is not a lot left to do).

While i agree im sure we can adapt, i think the situation is quite different

[Joe]

we have picked a lot of the low hanging fruit in terms of energy saving (not that there is not a lot left to do).

We have in Europe, but not so much elsewhere. Even in the UK there's a hell of a lot of headroom for increased efficiency.

[Totally_Baffled]

No one thinks of using oil as a serious electric power source now, and we have picked a lot of the low hanging fruit in terms of energy saving (not that there is not a lot left to do).

I think there is a lot more to be had even in Europe.

I'm sure i have read that something like 60% of all car journeys in the UK are under 3 miles.

Also if you could get public transport usage rates to the same as London in other UK cities you could save a substantial amount of oil.

I agree that there is more to be saved in the US/Canada/Australia etc for example.