PowerSwitch

Just heard dearest Darling saying that public debt will remain high for many years (2016) ... right into Peak Oil Arrival territory ... great ..

Yes, 79% of GDP by 2013/14, sounds ridiculous.

Liabilities, so including things like pensions, are already 400% of GDP.

Actually I think I should have said 2018.

However if the proposed government gilts sale fails make that 3018 ...

Anyone think that there is any chance of a gentle descent now? or are we heading for a very rough fall?

After that budget I have extremely dark forbodings about the next decade in the UK ....

Can you imagine what would happen to the government if they really took the steps required to offset peak oil? And even if the UK did it would mean little to the rest of the world.

I saw Darling being interviewed on BBC Breakfast this morning. He kept saying he always knew we would come out of recession and was confident the recession would end and growth would restart. It sounded unconvincing to my ear, in fact I would say he was trying to convince himself!

I think there is a chance we will not come out of recession, but sink deeper into the quagmire.

Mind you, I hope I am wrong and Darling is right......

My view is that the year 2009 will be the first year of a global depression spiral which will last some 30-40 years.

The main point that nobody is picking up is this: as soon as the global economy shows any signs of recovery, the oil price will rise as companyies buy forward and speculators see possible profits. Within a few months the price will reach much the same levels as last years, if not higher and that will kill off any such recovery.

Once that happens, oil prices will slump again, killing off any investment plans for renewable energy.

This see saw process will probably be repeated several times.

In the medium term, oil prices will come up and stay high, as the production and the reduced consumption curves cross. Remember, consumption will reduce only marginally - so far it has gone down by about 2mbp, or about 3% - that postpones the Peak by about 10 working days - that's how insignificant it is.

Why 30-40 years?
Assuming depletion of 4%/year, = halving every 17 years of so, in 30-40 years time we will be done to about 25% of current energy consumption rates - and that may be sustainable purely from renewable sources.

The problem is that government may be so hopelessly indebted that they may not be able to support the necessary investment.

Cheers!

Time for us all to tighten our belts.

If you earn £30k and live off £30k you're heading for trouble. But if you can earn £30k and can live off £5k, you're x6 better off - and much better prepared for the future, psychologically as well as in terms of savings. IMHO.

A good dose of inflation needed I think.

Neil

2032 is another recovery date mooted on the Beeb this morning ... we will be WELL down the global oil production rate curve by then ... and I suspect that Natural gas in the European are won't be in plentiful supply either.

Oh joy.