Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[adam2]

Reports suggest that both France and Australia face gas supply concerns for the coming winter, as well as Ireland as noted a few posts back.
The potential gas supply crunch in Australia is of only indirect relevance to the UK situation. They are however another buyer for LNG cargoes whom we have to outbid.
France is a bit more worrying, they are far less reliant on gas than we are for electricity production, but a lot is used for heating and industry, and SOME for electricity generation. France will be potentially outbidding us not just for LNG cargoes, but also for pipeline supplies. If French gas supplies are short, I doubt that they will be willing to burn it to generate electricity for export to us!

[BritDownUnder]

Reports suggest that both France and Australia face gas supply concerns for the coming winter, as well as Ireland as noted a few posts back.
The potential gas supply crunch in Australia is of only indirect relevance to the UK situation. They are however another buyer for LNG cargoes whom we have to outbid.
France is a bit more worrying, they are far less reliant on gas than we are for electricity production, but a lot is used for heating and industry, and SOME for electricity generation. France will be potentially outbidding us not just for LNG cargoes, but also for pipeline supplies. If French gas supplies are short, I doubt that they will be willing to burn it to generate electricity for export to us!

As far as I know, there is no LNG import terminal in Australia though there are discussions on building one in Melbourne. There are plenty of LNG export terminals here. I am currently working on one under construction.

What is not in dispute is that there is a gas shortage even in Australia.

[emordnilap]

I cant foresee any restrictions on the domestic use of gas as there is no realistic way to enforce any such restrictions.

There are however other ways of reducing gas consumption.

Increase coal burning for electricity production.
Increase oil burning for electricity production.
Prohibit the use of gas or electricity for heating leisure facilities.
Prohibit heating of public buildings and workplaces to over 16 degrees.
Prohibit external electric lighting of buildings.
Prohibit electrically illuminated advertising.
Restrict electric street lighting.
Prohibit gas street lighting.
Restrict operation of electric railways, substituting diesel or steam power.
Rota power cuts.
Restrict some or all trades to a 3 day week, for electricity consumption.

Require that all grid connected CCGT plant that is physically able to burn oil does convert to oil, even if this be otherwise prohibited. May need road closures etc for oil deliveries.

Look into hastening completion of any wind turbine installations that are already planned. Fast track any ancillary works that are delaying completion.

Most of the above would require that a state of emergency be declared.

Much of that sounds great, adam2. I'd vote for you.

[adam2]

MRS has increased to nearly 12,000 GWH but LNG stocks have declined to about 8,000 GWH, so total supplies are still only about 20,000.
Not much if anything goes wrong.

[kenneal - lagger]

We've got a year's supply of LPG in and we've just added some red diesel. Could fit some more in the tank before winter though which might be a good idea. Must get the extra PV panel on the roof to take us up to the 60A the controller will handle.

[woodburner]

What about several extra panels? When you need it the sunshine, and consequently the output, will be low anyway, so you won't be getting the quoted 60A.

[kenneal - lagger]

I would need another controller and more roof space for the extra panels. It is something that I am looking at doing but not at the moment

[adam2]

Natural gas prices have increased, to what MAY be a record for this time of year, though nothing remarkable by winter standards.
Stocks have declined to about 18,500GWH which I find a little concerning.
(excluding the dregs in the broken long range storage)

[adam2]

In only a few days, gas stocks have declined from 18,500 to 16,500GWH and winter has not even started yet.
At this rate of use, stocks will only last just over a month.
Hopefully some LNG tankers will arrive soon.

[vtsnowedin]

Of course all the interested parties, importers sellers, ,distributors and government regulators are all just as much aware of the facts of the distribution system and market as we are. It is probably too much to expect a sufficient level of competence at all levels of the system to forestall all major disruptions in supply, at some time brought about by some unforeseen cut in actual supplies delivered or on hand. After this shortfall takes place, if in fact it eventually does, what will be the remedy needed to keep it from happening repeatedly?
In other words what is wrong with the present system or infrastructure and what should they be doing to fix it to prevent people freezing to death in the dark?

[adam2]

Of course all the interested parties, importers sellers, ,distributors and government regulators are all just as much aware of the facts of the distribution system and market as we are. It is probably too much to expect a sufficient level of competence at all levels of the system to forestall all major disruptions in supply, at some time brought about by some unforeseen cut in actual supplies delivered or on hand. After this shortfall takes place, if in fact it eventually does, what will be the remedy needed to keep it from happening repeatedly?
In other words what is wrong with the present system or infrastructure and what should they be doing to fix it to prevent people freezing to death in the dark?

MOST of the UK natural gas infrastructure works fine and copes well with breakdowns, severe weather or exceptionally high demand.
The exception is that as a nation we have insufficient gas storage to meet even a relatively minor disruption to supply.

What is needed IMO, is at least a doubling of storage capacity, and a legal requirement to keep this reasonably full whilst times are normal.
It would be reasonable to build this additional storage at the public expense, since it is arguably a part of civil defence rather than for everyday use.
If the gas industry wish to fund extra storage for operational reasons, then that is a separate matter and should be funded by the gas industry.
Operational day to day gas storage, and national emergency gas stocks could of course be combined in the same physical facilities, provided that the publicly funded part of the storage is never drawn upon without government permission.

[vtsnowedin]

So the gas equivalent of a strategic petroleum reserve as it were? You could pay for it with a tax on all NG so tax payers pay for it in proportion to their use and benefit received from the use of NG. Managed by the right people it could even turn a profit most years buying low in summer and selling high in the winter season.

[cubes]

Maybe we're finally going to be in the shit this winter? Might kick some arses into gear.

Any ideas on whether autumn/winter is going to be colder than the last few years?

[Potemkin Villager]

Any ideas on whether autumn/winter is going to be colder than the last few years?

Without Dr Who's Tardis that is a bit like asking what is the secret of the Black Magic box or who is going to win the 3-30 at Aintree!

Based on the feelings in my old bones I reckon it will be incredibly mild and damp up until St Stephen's Day and thereafter we will enter a highly chaotic degree day period, everywhere apart from the fens, up until St Brigid's Day.

Thereafter all bets are off.

[cubes]

I know that long range forecasting isn't particularly accurate just wondering if anyone had heard any long-range forecasts.