Greece Watch...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2015, 14:34

1. The currently relatively large percentage of Greek GDP that is represented by pensions is, in large part, due to the massive economic depression inflicted on Greece via the Troika's imposed austerity measures.

2. The Greek population has a relatively poor demographic profile. One of the worst in the EU, in fact. Over 20% of Greeks are over 65.

When you account for both of the above, the cost, as a proportion of Greek GDP that is represented by pensions, is lower than the EU average.

The dirty little lie being pushed by the Troika/IMF and their pathetic UK shills, as exemplified by our very own Mr Hemmings, of lazy Greeks sucking their country dry with a bloated pension sector is just that: a dirty lie.

http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2015/02/2 ... after-all/

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 28 Jun 2015, 15:01

I know of a few UK policemen and army officers who have taken a pension at 50 and John will be familiar with the pension arrangements for our MPs.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2015, 15:53

johnhemming wrote:Yes, but the UK has also changed those arrangements. The EZ wants Greece to change them if Greece is to get financial support.

You should note in the tables that the Greek position is average, not at the bottom of the list. However, Greece wants countries at the bottom of the list to give them money to fund better schemes than Greece funds.

"little john" should be aware that abuse is no substitute for rational argument. However, if you have to be abusive please spell my name correctly.

Furthermore pensions are not the only issue. Why should the Aegean Islands be VAT low rated on hotels and restaurants?

Typical politician's response, change the goalposts of the debate and, if all else fails, focus on the process of the debate instead of its substance.

You have banged on about a bloated Greek pension sector and have generally insinuated, by that, that the Greeks are feckless scroungers living off the back of the rest of the EU. That assertion and the insinuations it implies are false. Either the EU political elites want their project to survive or they do not. As UE has already pointed out, they have that choice, The Greeks have no choice, If they must suffer, they may as well do so on their own terms with dignity and national honour. I understand such concepts are now alien to a spineless European political class that has sold its respective national souls to a failed EU fantasy and/or a Yank, neo-con agenda, but such concepts really do matter, when push comes to shove.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:07

Time for "Fallacy Man"
http://existentialcomics.com/comic/9

The straw Man/Aunt Sally
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

I have dealt with the detailed question of pension funding. I have actually read the proposals from the EZ which make detailed reference to retiring at 50 (and call for it to cease from 30th June 2015 which is not as harsh as saying anyone under 67 is now not to get a pension, for example).

I make the additional point that there are issues beyond the issue of pensions - and you should listen to the Slovakian Minister of Finance (inter alia)
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21 ... ward-squad

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 78789.html
"Hairdressers may retire early on generous pensions as their profession is still classed as "dangerous" because in the past they handled dangerous chemicals such as hair-straightener and blonde hair-dye. Pastry chefs, like trombonists, can retire because of the potential for breathing problems in later life."

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:22

johnhemming wrote:Time for "Fallacy Man"
http://existentialcomics.com/comic/9

The straw Man/Aunt Sally
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

I have dealt with the detailed question of pension funding. I have actually read the proposals from the EZ which make detailed reference to retiring at 50 (and call for it to cease from 30th June 2015 which is not as harsh as saying anyone under 67 is now not to get a pension, for example).

I make the additional point that there are issues beyond the issue of pensions - and you should listen to the Slovakian Minister of Finance (inter alia)
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21 ... ward-squad

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 78789.html
"Hairdressers may retire early on generous pensions as their profession is still classed as "dangerous" because in the past they handled dangerous chemicals such as hair-straightener and blonde hair-dye. Pastry chefs, like trombonists, can retire because of the potential for breathing problems in later life."

Okay, since you wish to make this a central issue and given that you have not contested the figures presented regarding the Troika imposed austerity measures and the specific demographic profile of Greece, what actual savings are you suggesting be made by Greece on the remaining issue of retiring at 50 on which the entire negotiations have apparently failed (and bearing in mind the Greek government do not deny that reforms on pensionable age are required, but that they consider that to impose them now is unconscionable given the parlous state of the finances of poor Greek households)?

I take it you do know this savings figure since you have made it such a central issue of your argument?

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:27

What is the relevance of the retirement age is in a country where the unemployment rate is over 25%?

Let's imagine that those hairdressers and trombonists continue working to 70, instead of retiring at 50. It seems to me that this just means that some older people will continue earning money, and therefore not require state support, but at the cost of removing the same number of job vacancies for the unemployed young people of Greece. Isn't this just re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic?

While I accept your arguments about some of these rules requiring updating, I don't understand how this changes the overall situation. I don't see how it gives hope to the Greek people. I don't see how it offers a route out of unrepayable national debt. There is a systemic problem here, that Greece is at the sharp end of, and I don't believe that pension arrangements are part of that systemic problem. The real problem is that Greece is locked into a shared currency with far more prosperous parts of Europe, and that without a fully integrated political and fiscal system, this simply does not work.

Post by **adam2** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:31

News reports re the ECB and Greece seem to have changed somewhat over recent hours.

Earlier it was reported, or at least strongly implied, that NO MORE money would be supplied to the Greek banking industry.
Now however it is reported or implied that a cap or limit on the total amount WONT BE RAISED, this of course would permit of further funding if the cap has not already been reached.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:37

adam2 wrote:News reports re the ECB and Greece seem to have changed somewhat over recent hours.

Earlier it was reported, or at least strongly implied, that NO MORE money would be supplied to the Greek banking industry.
Now however it is reported or implied that a cap or limit on the total amount WONT BE RAISED, this of course would permit of further funding if the cap has not already been reached.

The ECB has blinked first...

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:37

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:37

>What is the relevance of the retirement age is in a country where the unemployment rate is over 25%
The assumption in government financial plans is a long term assumption. The long term assumptions assume reducing unemployment hence although you have a partially reasonable argument in the short term in the long term it does not work.

It is also an issue that pensions tend to be paid at a higher rate than unemployment benefit.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 28 Jun 2015, 16:40

The greeks are still officially "in a programme". Hence the collateral for ELA is still valid. Whether there is enough money left to pay salaries and pensions I don't know. We don't get access to detailed real time figures for this sort of thing.

I think the Greeks are changing position on capital controls. Initially they did not want them.

I cannot predict the next few days in terms of who can get paid and whether the greek banks will remain open or indeed the cashpoints close as well.

Tarrel · Post by **Tarrel** » 28 Jun 2015, 17:12

http://www.theguardian.com/business/liv ... ilout-live

Greek cabinet meeting called for 6.00 pm UK time.

3rdRock · Post by **3rdRock** » 28 Jun 2015, 17:52

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... evo-moment

Greece crisis could be a Sarajevo moment for the eurozone

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 28 Jun 2015, 18:02

If one country behaves particularly badly and the others give in to that behaviour it would undermine the operation of the EZ.

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 28 Jun 2015, 18:14

A survey as to whether people in some northern countries want the greeks to remain in the EZ.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/c ... al_W_1.pdf