Brexit process

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Little John

Post by Little John »

The making all of the problems you have just outlined are an ensconced rump of the political class who all share the same neo-liberal globalist agenda and don;t want Brexit to happen. In other words, they are not inherent problems, They are manufactured ones. And they can be un-manufactured.

And yes, I agree, the Irish simply need to be told, on both sides of the border Brexit is happening. Consequently, the border between NI and SI becomes a little bit harder no matter what and a lot harder if the EU plays silly buggers.

What happens to NI and SI after that will be down to the Irish.

So, why is this an existential crisis for the UK?
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:
So, why is this an existential crisis for the UK?
I didn't say it was. Whatever else happens, the UK will continue to exist. Scotland and Wales aren't going anywhere.
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Little John wrote:The making all of the problems you have just outlined are an ensconced rump of the political class who all share the same neo-liberal globalist agenda and don;t want Brexit to happen. In other words, they are not inherent problems, They are manufactured ones. And they can be un-manufactured.

And yes, I agree, the Irish simply need to be told, on both sides of the border Brexit is happening. Consequently, the border between NI and SI becomes a little bit harder no matter what and a lot harder if the EU plays silly buggers.

What happens to NI and SI after that will be down to the Irish.

So, why is this an existential crisis for the UK?
Agreed. The Irish have already stated that in the event of a no deal they have no intention to build a hard border.

A no deal will lead to a crisis of relations between the Irish republic and the EU26.

There is an opt out, the EU can declare northern Ireland under WTO a border region where custom rules do not apply. It's never been used before and the EU will only consider it if the Irish can't be bullied into building a hard border.
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

The southern Irish also have to decide just how much they want to continue the privileged access to the UK that they have enjoyed for years. The border with the mainland UK has been very much open for people and produce coming this way for decades.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html
It might be better to approach Brexit in the way Sherlock Holmes approached a crime scene: once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remaining option must be the truth. Eliminating the impossible does unfortunately not give us a single clean answer, but at least it gets rid of the nausea. Here are three candidates for elimination.

1. A no-deal Brexit is impossible because there is no majority for it in the British parliament

This argument seems to be popular among newspaper columnists who have not read Article 50, which we suspect is the majority. If the UK parliament rejects a withdrawal deal, or if no deal is agreed, a positive majority must be found for a means to avert a no-deal Brexit: force the government to revoke Brexit; or find a way to force elections and get the public to elect a pro-deal government. At no stage will there ever be a legally meaningful vote on a no-deal Brexit. It will simply happen when nothing else happens.

2. the Canada option

We read in Buzzfeed that Theresa May’s cabinet is preparing a Canada-type deal as a default position. Have they talked to the EU? A Canada model would require a customs border in the Irish Sea, since the EU is not giving up on the red line of an Irish backstop. The only Canada scenario we see possible is one following a no-deal Brexit. It would probably take five to ten years until the EU even agrees to sit down with UK officials again. So this is not an option that needs a lot of preparation right now.

One of the big misunderstandings by those in favour of a Canada-style deal is the role of the EU. The EU would, in principle, agree to a Canada deal, but only on condition of a customs border in the Irish channel which is an option already ruled out by the UK parliament. From the perspective of the EU, it would constitute the neatest option of all: a clean Brexit; respect for the unity of Ireland; and no funny stuff with the single market and the customs union. But the Irish question intrudes.

3 The EEA

A backbencher is now trying to find support for the Norway option. But the Irish backstop would remain in the withdrawal treaty. The same dilemmas would apply as above. Would the UK accept a customs border in the Irish Channel? Or would the UK join the EU customs union as well as the EEA? A time-limited EEA-plus-customs-union membership is a different matter, but this would give rise to a vassal-state argument.

We are not saying that EEA or Canada deals are theoretically impossible, but they both require U-turns in both the UK's and the EU’s negotiating positions. The EU may compromise on the political declaration about the future relationship, but has so far shown no signs of agreeing a fudge on the Irish backstop.

Simon Nixon makes an important point in his Times column, when he writes the Irish border question is what drives Theresa May’s Brexit policy more than the demands of business. This is the rationale behind the Chequers proposal. He writes that the Irish border, however, remains the single biggest obstacle to an orderly Brexit, and there has been no progress whatsoever on this issue, and no sign of any party giving in. A hard Brexit is entirely possible, with severe and fairly symmetric economic costs to both the UK and Ireland.

Sam Lowe argues in Prospect that both sides have an interest to draw out the negotiations to the last possible minute. May will need the threat of what Lowe calls attributable, actual peril. He is more optimistic on the Irish backstop, citing reports of a backstop to the backstop. His conclusion is that a factual capitulation is the only conceivable route out of a no-deal Brexit.

We disagree with Lowe’s last assertion. A capitulation that is seen as such will make it harder for pro-European Labour MPs to support it, and will give the Brexiteers the ammunition they are seeking. We believe that both the UK and the EU must move. A hard Brexit would also be a disaster for the EU — a fact often obscured by arguments that a no-deal Brexit is worse for the UK. While true, this does not make it any less bad for the EU: its pain tolerance is lower than the UK’s as nobody in the EU voted for Brexit. We are sure that several European member states, not only Poland, will question whether they should permanently fracture the relationship with an important strategic and commercial partner for the sake of the Irish border. Especially if you consider that a hard Brexit would be the worst imaginable outcome for Ireland itself.

That discussion hasn’t started yet in earnest because hardly anybody on the continent truly believes in a hard Brexit. For now hard Brexit has the quality of a scary bedtime story. But just wait to see what happens when that changes.
interesting analysis from the Euro-intelligence.

The Irish border remains the main challenge.

https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/09/t ... exit-deal/
One of those involved in the negotiations on the British side tells me, the EU ‘believe we will blink first’. But that won’t happen. One Brexit red line that Theresa May is adamant she’ll never cross is her insistence that no British PM could sign the EU’s proposed text on the Irish border, which would see Northern Ireland become part of the customs territory of the EU.

But unless some progress is made on the Northern Irish border then the two sides will end up with a no deal that neither of them is prepared for.
BRING ON NO-DEAL!
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

He is more optimistic on the Irish backstop, citing reports of a backstop to the backstop.
Turtles all the way down!
We disagree with Lowe’s last assertion. A capitulation that is seen as such will make it harder for pro-European Labour MPs to support it, and will give the Brexiteers the ammunition they are seeking. We believe that both the UK and the EU must move. A hard Brexit would also be a disaster for the EU — a fact often obscured by arguments that a no-deal Brexit is worse for the UK. While true, this does not make it any less bad for the EU: its pain tolerance is lower than the UK’s as nobody in the EU voted for Brexit. We are sure that several European member states, not only Poland, will question whether they should permanently fracture the relationship with an important strategic and commercial partner for the sake of the Irish border. Especially if you consider that a hard Brexit would be the worst imaginable outcome for Ireland itself.
This is absolutely spot on. Is the wider EU really going to back Ireland forcing a no-deal brexit in order to punish the UK for the Irish Border Problem when a no-deal brexit does nothing to actually solve the Irish Border Problem?
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

And yet...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... gotiations
Mr Varadkar said he could not see a hard border materialising, even in the event of a no deal scenario, because neither country wanted such an outcome.

He said: “I am confident that no matter what happens, the common travel area will remain in place because both UK and Ireland want that for each other's citizens.

"It benefits citizens in both countries and the European Union has taken the view that we can continue that."
So Varadkar says he "can't see a hard border materialising" and denies any preparations are taking place. But this cannot continue forever. Every day we get closer to a no deal brexit and no plans are made for the construction of a border, the closer we get to a brexit that is not only "no deal", but total chaos, because the moment it happens there will be a major conflict of requirements between the Republic and the rest of the EU.

This actually puts some power back into the hands of the UK, for the simple reason that there's no equivalent of the EU breathing down our necks telling us we need to erect a border. Technically the WTO can complain, because we're giving the EU an easier border than other WTO countries, but that isn't going to cause any immediate problems. But there's no way the EU can just ignore that situation, because it will have, de-facto, compromised the border of their single market.

So what happens next? The EU tells Ireland it has to build a border? At that point I cannot see any other possible outcome. The EU cannot just leave an open border with a non-EU country with which it has no deal but WTO.

The people involved would doubtless like to do some more fudging and can-kicking but I am getting the feeling that that is not going to work this time.

This whole negotiation process has been a total waste of time because the EU insisted the Irish Border Problem be solved before other things could be talked about in detail. At the end of the day the situation they were trying to avoid - the one where the UK uses a threat of a hard border in Ireland as a negotiating chip - is going to happen anyway. It is just going to happen with no time left to discuss the solution, and no time left to build a consensus in the UK or ratify any solution in Europe.
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Agreed UE.

There is NO WAY the Irish Republic will construct a hard border in the event of a no-deal/hard Brexit outcome (which I think is a 50:50 chance right now).

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ter-brexit
At face value, it seems straightforward -- the EU’s land frontier with Britain would need to be policed to uphold the rules of the single market. Yet, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar seems to take a different view. Speaking in Brussels on Thursday, he told reporters there are no preparations to install checks, and has consistently said Ireland won’t build a border.

“The U.K. has said they won’t do it,� Varadkar said in an interview with broadcaster TV3 this month. “And I’ve made it very clear to other European prime ministers and presidents that’s something Ireland will never do.�

It’s a position that puzzles some in Brussels. Speaking privately, one senior European official suggested the Irish should take a more measured approach or risk embarrassment if talks collapsed. Speaking on condition of anonymity, the EU official said there while there would be sympathy for Ireland in the event of the U.K. crashing out of the bloc without a deal, controls would eventually have to be implemented.
Already a difference of opinion between Brussels and Dublin.
France is among countries most concerned about protecting the single market and any failure to adequately police the frontier in the event of a no-deal Brexit would create major problems with the European Commission and other member states, officials said.

Even if a wide-ranging trade deal was reached with the U.K., border posts might still be needed to check the origin of goods and to make sure they meet the rules of the importing country, Fabbrini said.
A solution to the Irish Border question...
Fabbrini identifies one possible way to square the circle. If there’s no deal with Britain, the bloc could invoke a so-called frontier traffic exception to declare the whole territory of Northern Ireland as a border region to the EU, Fabbrini said, citing a never-before used clause linked to the General Agreement of Trade and Tariffs.
So there you go... the EU do have an emergency option if all else fails. And this is why Britain should call the EU bluff and go for a hard brexit deal with a fallback to WTO if the EU reject or refuse to budge on Ireland.
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Post by emordnilap »

Varadkar will do Brussels' bidding; he's too much to lose. He leads Fine Gael, the farmers' party (which was one of its original components).
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote: So there you go... the EU do have an emergency option if all else fails.
That is an emergency option that might prevent the need to erect new border infrastructure immediately, but the French and other EU players will not accept it as a long-term solution. Which means they also won't accept it as a solution with no ending date. It would be a permanent political crisis where the UK has some pretty severe leverage over the EU.

I honestly believe the UK should have used all the weapons at our disposal right from the start. The threat of a hard border in Ireland, non-payment of the divorce bill and the rights of EU citizens in the UK should all have been used to get concessions out of the EU. And if somebody argues that the EU wouldn't have allowed the UK to do this, then the response is that basically we'd just have ended up in a very similar position to the one we are in now anyway.
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

There is another option:

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-n ... k-13208919
here are now growing fears that the question of the border will now be left out of the negotiations right until the end while all the other elements of the deal are worked out.

This would put enormous pressure on the Leo Varadkar to accept a situation where a hard border would be reinstated or the Irish Government would be accused of scuppering the entire Brexit deal.

The Daily Telegraph has reported that Mr Raab’s challenge to Mr Barnier reflects British thinking that the EU will have to choose between forcing the Irish government to erect a border that would undermine the Good Friday Agreement or imposing customs checks between Ireland and the EU.
I have heard precious little talk of this until now. Much easier to police a sea border than a land border, and the GFA remains intact.
Little John

Post by Little John »

In which case, Northern Ireland would effectively remain part of the EU single market - in other words, effectively remain part of the EU.

That's not going to happen. Until and unless Northern Ireland holds a referendum to secede from the UK and become part of Southern Ireland, it remains a part of the UK.

There will be a border between the Westernmost frontier of the UK and Southern Ireland. How hard that border is, in terms of the free movement of the Southern and Northern Irish people and how hard it is in terms of the free movement of goods and services, is largely down to how much the Irish and EU political class want to play silly buggers.

But, Brexit is going to happen and it will include all of the UK.
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:In which case, Northern Ireland would effectively remain part of the EU single market - in other words, effectively remain part of the EU.
No it wouldn't. It would mean that the Republic was effectively no longer in the the EU customs union. The Republic would end up in a customs union with the UK instead.

A no deal brexit forces the EU to choose between compelling the Republic of Ireland to breach the Good Friday Agreement by erecting a border with NI, or kicking a member state out of its own customs union.

Meanwhile:

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingn ... 67674.html
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

The chances of Ireland leaving the EU are very slim at the moment.

Their political class are overwhelmingly pro-European.

I have updated my FI blog on Brexit.

https://forecastingintelligence.org/201 ... -of-march/

It's a long post but my conclusion is:
The political and financial elites of Europe assume that Britain will swallow whatever package is eventually hammered out by Barnier and his team since the prospect of a Hard Brexit is unthinkable. Yet, the same elites said the same thing before the Brexit referendum about the possibility of the British people voting Leave or the Americans voting for Donald Trump in November 2016.

Having read the various no-deal reports I’ve reached the conclusion that assuming that the UK ensures interim holding arrangements with its neighbours the worst-case scenarios of food and medicine running out will be proven wrong. A hard Brexit, with Britain falling back on WTO will likely lead to a degree of disruption for the first few months but the worse-case predictions are unlikely to come true.

There is a reasonable chance that the UK could economically boom post-March, thanks to the further fall in sterling, the saving of the 40 billion divorce bill (equivalent to 2% of the British economy) and inflationary wage pressures on the economy as the supply of foreign EU workers dries up. Rising real wages for the bottom 80% would increase consumer confidence and boost the UK economy.

As Bernard Connolly, the European Commission’s former currency director and founder of Connolly Associates, said a weaker pound has already led to a big improvement in the UK’s current account – when adjusted for the jobs boom and full employment, the metric that matters. A further slide would make the UK economy even more competitive and narrow the deficit further.

If I summed up my thoughts in one sentence, it would be that my head says there will be a deal but my gut is telling me it will be a no-deal/hard Brexit.

Overall, I now consider the chances of a no deal outcome (e.g. Hard Brexit) equally likely as a deal, whether based on a Canada-type deal or a Chequers Minus/Barnier package.
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

If I summed up my thoughts in one sentence, it would be that my head says there will be a deal but my gut is telling me it will be a no-deal/hard Brexit.
We are no closer to a solution on the Irish border than we were the morning after the referendum. No progress whatsoever.

The only way there's going to be a deal now is if there is some sort of major capitulation by the EU.

Theresa May has very limited scope for movement. So it looks like the EU will end up having to choose between:

a) No deal, then force Ireland to erect a border that contravenes the GFA
b) No deal, then kick Ireland out of the customs union
c) Offer the UK a huge concession on "splitting up the four freedoms" even though it poses an existential threat to the single market, and hope Theresa May can sell it to parliament.

We're heading straight for a no-deal, Beria. The only way the EU can avoid a no-deal is buy making the UK an offer it can't refuse (literally, rather than in a Godfather sense). And it simply isn't going to do that, because to do so would invite other members to leave.
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