Current Oil Price

peaky2 · Post by **peaky2** » 16 Apr 2008, 17:02

Three wrong calls by the analysts in one news item - I think that's a record

Post by **mikepepler** » 16 Apr 2008, 19:07

$114.95 the high point so far today. Wonder where it will settle?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 16 Apr 2008, 19:48

emordnilap wrote:Those analysts again! They can't get a thing right, can they? I'd sack 'em.

Please... put me out of my misery...

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 16 Apr 2008, 20:04

115.07 says our ticker

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 16 Apr 2008, 20:23

Tess wrote:
emordnilap wrote:Those analysts again! They can't get a thing right, can they? I'd sack 'em.
Please... put me out of my misery...

Ahh... You simply MUST read The Black Swan. Highly enjoyable.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 16 Apr 2008, 22:37

MacG wrote: Ahh... You simply MUST read The Black Swan. Highly enjoyable.

There was an article about Taleb in this month's 'Bloomberg magazine'. A three or four page spread no less. He's really quite the celebrity at the moment with all these 'unexpected' events happening

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 16 Apr 2008, 22:38

Taleb seems rather arrogant to me ...

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 16 Apr 2008, 23:06

Vortex wrote:Taleb seems rather arrogant to me ...

Yes, of course, but he is a simple guy from Amioun in Lebanon, who in addition spent his adult life in the US. You can't expect the same degree of refinement as in a modest, humble and highly civilized English gentleman, such as yourself.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 16 Apr 2008, 23:13

Sorry . . .

This place should be like a morgue. It's more like the comedy channel!!!!

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 16 Apr 2008, 23:41

Can someone explain what is meant by refining margins?

I read on the bloomberg that refineries are running at 80% utilisation because these margins are too low to make it worthwhile producing gasoline and diesel etc.

I am guessing that with crude oil at $115, and gasoline at $2.92, that gasoline needs to rise further in price (perhaps another 50 cents or a dollar) to make it worthwhile for refineries to crank up production??

Is this sort of right?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 16 Apr 2008, 23:50

Totally_Baffled wrote:Can someone explain what is meant by refining margins?

Ah, refinery margins, how shall I count the hours...

The refinery margin is simply the difference between the total price a refinery can sell all the products it makes, and the cost of the crude it buys. Since refineries mostly make gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heavy fuel oil, the price of these products relative to crude determines the refinery margin (which is actually their 'gross profit margin' before wages and operating costs are taken into account).

When crude prices accelerate too quickly, and there's not enough demand for the products, then margins can fall dramatically, and if they get bad enough, refineries simply stop buying as much crude - thus the 'refinery utilisation' drops.

This typically brings things back into balance. Less crude buying and less products being made pushes crude prices down and product prices up, increasing the margins again.

Needless to say, most traders watch margins constantly.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 16 Apr 2008, 23:55

Tess wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote:Can someone explain what is meant by refining margins?
Ah, refinery margins, how shall I count the hours...

The refinery margin is simply the difference between the total price a refinery can sell all the products it makes, and the cost of the crude it buys. Since refineries mostly make gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heavy fuel oil, the price of these products relative to crude determines the refinery margin (which is actually their 'gross profit margin' before wages and operating costs are taken into account).

When crude prices accelerate too quickly, and there's not enough demand for the products, then margins can fall dramatically, and if they get bad enough, refineries simply stop buying as much crude - thus the 'refinery utilisation' drops.

This typically brings things back into balance. Less crude buying and less products being made pushes crude prices down and product prices up, increasing the margins again.

Needless to say, most traders watch margins constantly.

Thanks Tess!

I had something like that in my head - just wanted confirmation!

Post by **mikepepler** » 17 Apr 2008, 07:40

Settled at $114.93, reached an overnight high of $115.21

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 17 Apr 2008, 08:39

MacG wrote:
Vortex wrote:Taleb seems rather arrogant to me ...
Yes, of course, but he is a simple guy from Amioun in Lebanon, who in addition spent his adult life in the US. You can't expect the same degree of refinement as in a modest, humble and highly civilized English gentleman, such as yourself.

Bog off.

Post by **mikepepler** » 17 Apr 2008, 10:06

and now $115.45

wonder when we'll hit ?120?