Ukraine Watch...

[Stumuz2]

Todays test will be if Russia is kicked out of Swift.
50-50 at the mo'

What deal have they done with China to circumvent swift?

[adam2]

"Russia launches major military assault in Ukraine" Some reports state that this is a full scale invasion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60454795

Yes, it is a full-scale invasion. They are going to try to take Kiev.

And then re name Kiev as "Putingrad" perhaps !

[PS_RalphW]

This is the start of a new cold war, at least in Europe and US. The UK is too indebted to Russian money and needy of oil and gas exports to do much. Boris and the Tories are deeply compromised.

The mood music in the US is that most Americans couldn't find Ukraine on the map and really do not see what it is to with them.

Europe is also compromised by the need for oil and gas.

I suspect Putin will take Kiev and the east of the country in a matter of days, and leave a rump opposition in the west with a new iron curtain going up to stop population fleeing and insurgents entering.

I can't see a strong resistance evolving in the occupied territory, these are a westernised population, not medieval religious mountainous Afghanistan. If I am wrong, and large numbers of Russian soldiers are killed in the coming months, then Putin might suddenly find himself deposed by his own military. Short of the US pumping billions in high tech weapons into the country I can't see the military suffering any serious damage.

I suspect this will all simmer down in a few weeks and we will be facing a new normal. Putin has done a risk calculation and is 99% sure is going to end up stronger.

[Stumuz2]

The UK is too indebted to Russian money and needy of oil and gas exports to do much. Boris and the Tories are deeply compromised.

How?

I can't see a strong resistance evolving in the occupied territory, these are a westernised population, not medieval religious mountainous Afghanistan. If I am wrong, and large numbers of Russian soldiers are killed in the coming months, then Putin might suddenly find himself deposed by his own military. Short of the US pumping billions in high tech weapons into the country I can't see the military suffering any serious damage.

I suspect this will all simmer down in a few weeks and we will be facing a new normal. Putin has done a risk calculation and is 99% sure is going to end up stronger.

Agree that when serious losses mount, there will be a public backlash.
However, Putin has surrounded himself with kleptocrats. They are motivated by greed pure and simple. Chelsea is de jure owned by Abramovich, but de facto owned by a cabal of moneymen headed by Putin. When they see their lavish jet setting lifestyles, multiple girlfriends kept in palatial pads around the globe, cut off by travel bans and confiscations, dynamics change.

Being an autocrat is the loneliest job in the world. There is no succession plan. You will rule until the minute you suddenly don't.

[Vortex2]

FWIW Ukraine is NOT a bastion of democracy, whatever he media & politicians say.

[Potemkin Villager]

I don't know if it is related but flightradar 24 is running very slowly at the moment..........

I got a message saying I was in a 22 minute queue which sounds like a DOS attack.

[Potemkin Villager]

However, Putin has surrounded himself with kleptocrats. They are motivated by greed pure and simple.

So how is this any different from Doris Johnson and chums?

[adam2]

Is there any reasonable chance that Putin could be killed or otherwise deposed ?
And if so, would this help ? would the replacement pursue similar policies ? Or be more sensible.

[UndercoverElephant]

Todays test will be if Russia is kicked out of Swift.
50-50 at the mo'

Looks like it won't happen. Germany won't even commit to stopping buying Russian gas.

[PS_RalphW]

FWIW Ukraine is NOT a bastion of democracy, whatever he media & politicians say.

If I saw a description of Ukraine as a semi-failed state with a deeply corrupt and kleptocratic government and widespread racism and ethnic discrimination I would not be remotely surprised. However I have heard similar descriptions of about half the countries on the planet from one side or another.

The Guardian is repeating reports of special forces attacking and taking over civilian airports, so attacking flight monitoring web sites is hardly a surprise.

When I visited Poland close the Ukrainian and Belarus borders (which were unguarded and unfenced) 20 years ago the locals described Ukrainians as reasonable people but were frightened of the Belarusians.

(The locals were only local for 50 years, as the original inhabitants had been relocated by Stalin)

[clv101]

FWIW Ukraine is NOT a bastion of democracy, whatever he media & politicians say.

Indeed! Beware anyone making absolute, black and white statements. The situation and history is complex, no angels and devils here.

[Stumuz2]

Todays test will be if Russia is kicked out of Swift.
50-50 at the mo'

Looks like it won't happen. Germany won't even commit to stopping buying Russian gas.

Agree.

[kenneal - lagger]

..................
I suspect this will all simmer down in a few weeks and we will be facing a new normal. Putin has done a risk calculation and is 99% sure is going to end up stronger.

If Putin gets away with invading any portion of Ukraine we are more likely to see the start of uprisings among the considerable Russian populations of the Baltic States than any simmering down. That will be a more difficult situation for the UK and NATO because we already have a "trip wire" of troops in those countries to forestall any thoughts of invasion.

Those Russian populations were sent there by Stalin to Russify those countries and reduce demands for independence. Putin is quite likely to use then for that purpose again and might even instigate false flag operations against them to get their dander up! He won't use Novichok against them though.

[adam2]

FWIW Ukraine is NOT a bastion of democracy, whatever he media & politicians say.

I agree, punch ups seem to be a feature of the Ukrainian parliament.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gm_sU5m6N08 And others.

My sympathies are still with Ukraine as being the wronged party in this conflict.

[UndercoverElephant]

..................
I suspect this will all simmer down in a few weeks and we will be facing a new normal. Putin has done a risk calculation and is 99% sure is going to end up stronger.

If Putin gets away with invading any portion of Ukraine

Looks to me like he's going to get away with taking all of it. The western response is unbelievably pathetic. Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the west is responding with "really tough sanction". We're going to close the bank accounts of a few of Putin's mates in London and stop a few minor Russian banks from operating. But Germany isn't committed to stopping buying Russian gas, and the Russian Grad Prix is still going to go ahead in September. That is the West's response? Western leaders are basically saying "Go ahead and take the whole of Ukraine. But please don't go any further. Things can settle down a bit and we can all get back to normal."

Russia is going to go all the way to NATO's eastern border.