Brexit process

[Little John]

.....Labour's position has become trickier. Their problem is that their argument has been eroded from underneath them.....

Labour blocked three votes for a deal, as shitty as it was. They then blocked no deal. They then blocked a "people's vote" becasue they wanted an election... apparently. Then they said they would do anything to stop "no deal". Latterl, they are opposing an election any time soon. But, now they also oppose Johnson's deal, as shitty as that is. Meanwhile, they have absolutely no capacity to negotiate their own deal nor any reason to expect it is going to be any better than Johnson's

Labour along with the rest of the quislings in the Commons, are a national disgrace and everyone knows it now.

[Lord Beria3]

Why is the deal shitty LJ?

[UndercoverElephant]

.....Labour's position has become trickier. Their problem is that their argument has been eroded from underneath them.....

Labour blocked three votes for a deal, as shitty as it was. They then blocked no deal. They then blocked a "people's vote" becasue they wanted an election... apparently. Then they said they would do anything to stop "no deal". Latterl, they are opposing an election any time soon. But, now they also oppose Johnson's deal, as shitty as that is. Meanwhile, they have absolutely no capacity to negotiate their own deal nor any reason to expect it is going to be any better than Johnson's

Labour along with the rest of the quislings in the Commons, are a national disgrace and everyone knows it now.

Labour has, all along, been doing whatever maximises its chance of winning an election. Their problem now is that it is extremely hard to say anymore what will maximise their chance of winning an election. The situation is so unpredictable and confusing that it is impossible to link available causes to likely effects. How can you triangulate when there's more than three points and they are all moving?

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/arti ... ctory.html

Agree with this analysis.

Tories are on a jagged but upward path in the polls.

The increasingly bizarre antics of Farage will only drive more ex-Tory BxP voters back to the Tory fold.

[Lord Beria3]

UE, the best thing for Labour is to appear to oppose the deal, but discreetly allow it to get through in the next 2 weeks, so that they can focus on domestic issues in the coming ge.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rexit.html

This apparently is also Corbyn's view as well.

Hopefully Labour Leave MP's will take the hint and vote for the deal on Tuesday.

Whilst I dislike many of Corbyn's policies it is a fact that his left-wing economic policies are quite popular with the public.

Best thing for Labour is get the Brexit issue off the front pages so that the ge can focus around domestic bread and butter issues.

[Lord Beria3]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKBN1WX0WP

Goldman Sachs said it had raised its estimate on the probability of a Brexit deal to 65% from 60% after Britain struck a new divorce agreement with the European Union that still needs British parliamentary backing.

The bank lowered its odds on “no deal� to 10% from 15% and left its odds of no Brexit happening at all unchanged at 25%, it said, adding that it maintained its base case that Britain will leave the EU with a deal by Oct. 31.

European Union leaders unanimously backed a new Brexit deal with Britain on Thursday, leaving Prime Minister Boris Johnson facing a battle to secure parliament’s support for the agreement if he is to take Britain out of Europe on Oct. 31.

Lets hope they are right! GS were calling it for a orderly Brexit back when most informed commentators had written off the prospects of a deal.

[UndercoverElephant]

UE, the best thing for Labour is to appear to oppose the deal, but discreetly allow it to get through in the next 2 weeks, so that they can focus on domestic issues in the coming ge.

I'd say this is at least possible.

[RevdTess]

UE, the best thing for Labour is to appear to oppose the deal, but discreetly allow it to get through in the next 2 weeks, so that they can focus on domestic issues in the coming ge.

I'd say this is at least possible.

I agree that this looks like the Labour trajectory. The election, if/when it comes will be such a weird anti-climax as the WA will have gone through and everyone will be confused as to what to vote for any more. I wonder how clear any party might be about their plans for the trade negotiations to come?

It sounds like there'll be another half-hearted attempt at a referendum amendment to the withdrawal bill, but it would take so long and be so difficult to organise that there's no chance of it getting through. And Corbyn doesn't really want that anyway. Better to be seen to fight the WA but then aim to win the right to 'negotiate the peace' through an election.

Tactically, voting for a new referendum is more likely to lead to no deal, as I'm pretty sure Johnson would refuse to move any bill with a referendum attached. But in practice I bet no hard line Brexiteer could bring themselves to vote for such a thing unless Boris already intended it as a trap.

The Brexit party are still banging on about how this deal isn't Brexit, but it's unclear how many will actually care enough to vote for them.

[RevdTess]

The other thing that's unclear is what the likes of Grieve will do if the EU refuse an extension, or if they simply delay beyond the WA vote on Monday or whenever.

Will those Tory rebels admit defeat to Johnson and vote for the deal even if there's a fixed 31st Oct end date and the risk of 'no deal' remains? Have they played their final card? I'm not sure what else they could do except vote for a no confidence motion to install Corbyn as PM so that he can go a beg the EU for an extension in order to have a referendum.

If Corbyn triggered a VonC next week, would the DUP vote for it to prevent the deal passing? Or would they fear PM Corbyn more?

I guess I'm hoping for the EU to grant an extension so that Brexit is graceful and orderly, not rushed through in 10 days. And it'll annoy Johnson, so that's good.

[Little John]

.....Labour's position has become trickier. Their problem is that their argument has been eroded from underneath them.....

Labour blocked three votes for a deal, as shitty as it was. They then blocked no deal. They then blocked a "people's vote" becasue they wanted an election... apparently. Then they said they would do anything to stop "no deal". Latterl, they are opposing an election any time soon. But, now they also oppose Johnson's deal, as shitty as that is. Meanwhile, they have absolutely no capacity to negotiate their own deal nor any reason to expect it is going to be any better than Johnson's

Labour along with the rest of the quislings in the Commons, are a national disgrace and everyone knows it now.

Labour has, all along, been doing whatever maximises its chance of winning an election. Their problem now is that it is extremely hard to say anymore what will maximise their chance of winning an election. The situation is so unpredictable and confusing that it is impossible to link available causes to likely effects. How can you triangulate when there's more than three points and they are all moving?

That's what happens when you do not stand on principle. Labour are f***ed.

[UndercoverElephant]

. Labour are f***ed.

At this point I genuinely have no idea why you think that.

[Catweazle]

. Labour are f***ed.

At this point I genuinely have no idea why you think that.

Perhaps because the govt is spinning it that Boris has won a deal, and that Labour is constantly voting away Boris' negotiating power and "surrendering" to the EU.

Many people are falling for the "surrender" "traitor" narrative.

[Little John]

The reason they are so easily able to "spin" it is because it is not a narrative. It is the reality. And I say that as no defender of the latest incarnation of May's surrender treaty.

[Little John]

Why is the deal shitty LJ?

* In any dispute over trade matters, EU law will still prevail

* The UK will still be subject to certain EU fishing rights

* NI to be effectively annexed. The so-called "opt-out" every 4 years is bullshit when you read the fine details

To name just three things. There are others.

[raspberry-blower]

Kit Knightly: Brexit: Parliament tethers Britain to a failing experiment