Brexit process

Post by **clv101** » 18 Oct 2019, 12:56

I think Johnson will get the deal, if not Saturday at the inevitable second time of asking. There's very little appetite for a Lib Dem style revoke. There will be a short extension to facilitate, we'll certainly still be in the EU on 1st Nov.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Oct 2019, 14:28

clv101 wrote:There's very little appetite for a Lib Dem style revoke.

That's not the question. The question now is whether the Labour Party wants to fight an election in the immediate aftermath of blocking Johnson's new deal. It's better than May's deal, and they would lose some votes for having played party politics instead of delivering brexit. On the other hand, the alternative - fighting it after brexit on Johnson's deal - is probably worse.

I stick by my prediction: vote fails, extension, Johnson calls election, Labour backs the election.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 18 Oct 2019, 14:40

French and irish leaders both saying no more extensions.

They might be bluffing but do mps want to find out?

Post by **clv101** » 18 Oct 2019, 15:00

Lord Beria3 wrote:French and irish leaders both saying no more extensions.

They might be bluffing but do mps want to find out?

Of course they are bluffing. Even if Johnson wins the vote tomorrow there isn't enough time before 31st to get all the legal stuff in place. If he wins we're looking at a short extension, if he loses longer extension.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Oct 2019, 15:35

Lord Beria3 wrote:French and irish leaders both saying no more extensions.

They might be bluffing but do mps want to find out?

Of course they are bluffing

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Oct 2019, 16:58

OK...my baseline prediction has changed. This deal is closer to a "credible leave option" than May's, or anything I thought Labour could get, because Johnson has succeeded in getting rid of the backstop. He's got the EU to fudge the final solution.

But i don't think Labour will allow him to get the deal through, so we are heading for an election. That election will now be between Johnson campaigning on going straight for his deal, and Labour campaigning on tweaking the deal to protect worker's rights and then offering a referendum between the tweaked deal and remain.

I think the tories will narrowly lose that election, but I no longer believe the leave option will be boycotted. Instead it will be a real referendum with an actual leave option (which I will probably vote for).

I don't know what the outcome of the referendum will be. It will be very close.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 18 Oct 2019, 18:05

I'm tentatively predicting that boris will win the meaningful vote tomorrow by a tiny margin.

Looked at betfair and you can bet both ways, and make money either way.

Modest profit on a no outcome and a big profit on a yes outcome.

I see the FT are now predicting a majority of 1. Of course things can change fast!

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 18 Oct 2019, 18:06

All very exciting stuff! Anyone know when the vote happens tomorrow?

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 18 Oct 2019, 18:57

Tbh, voting for the deal is just delaying no-deal brexit until the end of next year. After all, this is just the first part of things. Imo, the ERG won't vote to extend the transition period beyond 31/12/20 and there is unlikely to be a trade deal by then. This was possibly BJs plan all along.

I also think the deal will pass tomorrow although it's just as unpalatable at TMs one (it's basically the same bar the backstop). I really hope all you brexit supporters are right, you're going to be fighting for the scraps of this country the rich brexit supporters leave behind otherwise. I'm sure they'll be thinking of you from their foreign mansions.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 18 Oct 2019, 19:14

cubes wrote:Tbh, voting for the deal is just delaying no-deal brexit until the end of next year. After all, this is just the first part of things. Imo, the ERG won't vote to extend the transition period beyond 31/12/20 and there is unlikely to be a trade deal by then. This was possibly BJs plan all along.

I also think the deal will pass tomorrow although it's just as unpalatable at TMs one (it's basically the same bar the backstop). I really hope all you brexit supporters are right, you're going to be fighting for the scraps of this country the rich brexit supporters leave behind otherwise. I'm sure they'll be thinking of you from their foreign mansions.

I think no deal is now extremely unlikely indeed. I think the possible outcomes are Johnson's deal, Johnson's deal tweaked by Labour, or revoke.

Post by **clv101** » 18 Oct 2019, 20:03

UndercoverElephant wrote:I think no deal is now extremely unlikely indeed. I think the possible outcomes are Johnson's deal, Johnson's deal tweaked by Labour, or revoke.

Indeed, as was ever so.

It looks like we'll have to go through all this again as we approach the end of the transition period - the future relationship and trading arrangements obviously not being agreed satisfactorily in time.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 18 Oct 2019, 23:14

I can't decide if the Johnson deal leaves the Tories in a better electoral position or worse. If it passes, and there's an election before the end of the year, then they'll face the Brexit party fighting on behalf of everyone who still sees the deal as brino. And I'm not convinced that there'll be much of a bounce for the Tories as a reward for getting a deal through. I suspect people will simply return to older tribes once the need to vote tactically for/against Brexit is over.

My main hope really is that the Tories are voted out, whether because Johnson's plan fails and he has to ask to extend, or because it succeeds and the Brexit Party suck away hardline Brexiteer votes while more moderate Brexiteers drift away from the Tories now Brexit is done.

The really nasty prospect from my perspective is the year of post-Brexit negotiations for a trade deal run by Johnson, where failure simply means we're back to the no-deal scenario, but with no alternatives. I'd much rather Labour did those negotiations.

I honestly can't decide if I want the deal to go through tomorrow.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 19 Oct 2019, 10:04

Well, the Letwin amendment might postpone the meaningful vote today (unclear) but the direction of travel is clear.

We are likely to get a orderly Brexit soon and probably without a 2nd referendum.

As a Brexiteer I am delighted.

Boris deal is materially harder then May (we are out of the backstop) and probably the hardest Brexit we can get through a formal negotiation with the EU.

I'm surprised LJ is calling this BINO - its quite the opposite. Yes, there are certain compromises - money being the big one - but overall this is a fairly hard Brexit.

It's a Brexit deal which I am very happy about.

The big change is that the EU also want an orderly Brexit.

https://twitter.com/Berenberg_Econ?ref_ ... r%5Eauthor

As BB note in their latest post on twitter, whilst 6 months ago the EU did want to reverse Brexit, the European elections (where the Brexit Party became biggest party in EU) and the chaos at Westminster has convinced them that it is in the blocs interests to see an orderly Brexit.

Whilst UE is probably right that Macron is bluffing there is nothing stopping him from vetoing a long extension or imposing conditions on even a short extension to protect the the interests of France and the EU.

Bottom line, the overwhelming mood across Europe and the UK is to get a orderly Brexit through and move on.

Remainers won many battles over the last few years but it is now looking like they have lost the war.

We will get Brexit.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 19 Oct 2019, 14:18

I have just read that the agreement leaves us on the hook for the EIB liabilities, open ended divorce bill etc - just another stitch-up:

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2019/10/19 ... ne-action/

Hopefully Boris is just lining up for no-deal, but I doubt it.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 19 Oct 2019, 15:43

It is another stitch up. But, even this level of stitch up is not enough for the Remainers in Parliament. Hence the Letwin bullshit