Gas alert as demand and prices rise

[adam2]

I suspect that the exact amount of gas remaining may be unknown when low.
You know when it is empty because nothing comes out.
You know when it is full because you cant get any more in.

In between it may not be that precise, I presume that the storage levels are calculated by metering the flow in and out.
With repeated partial emptying and filling, even very small errors in metering the amount put in or taken out would add up.

The pressure in the reservoir is easily measured but is only a partial guide as to the contents. Natural gas is mainly methane but also contains small amounts of butane and propane, these components would turn to liquid at relatively modest pressures. A pressurised storage cavern would therefore contain a mix of liquid propane, liquid butane, and gaseous methane.

The short term store is AFAIK liquified gas, and the pressure would not be even a rough guide as to the contents.

[Tarrel]

The short term store is AFAIK liquified gas, and the pressure would not be even a rough guide as to the contents.

So, we don't even roughly know what's in Rough?

[Tarrel]

Mike, what sort of quantity of gas does the UK use on days like today (i.e. cold, but not desperately so)?

At the time you posted this RC, I was sitting outside, reading a book and having a break from chores, in glorious sunshine but with an icy breeze taking the edge off it.

There was no heating required for the house because (a) we kept warm outside working (not hard though) and (b) our small investment in a solar lean-to means we collect some of the sun's heat in the house.

Subsequently, we only needed a small fire (roughly one broken up pallet) during the evening and we had shedloads of solar-heated water.

Such situations don't suit everyone but it goes to show that simple ideas can easily reduce fossil energy demand. Imagine if every house - where it's feasible - installed passive devices that 'collected' solar energy. Nah, can't be done squire!

Sounds like the same weather we've got up here.

We have a slightly different approach with the Rayburn. We're still running it at the moment. Our aim is to shut it down at the end of April, until September. However, like you, we don't need much heat during the day, so we keep it ticking over with fuel, which is enough to be getting the thermal store nice and hot for the evening, so we can run the radiators. It also gives us hot water whenever we need it. It's also enough to keep the hotplates hot enough for cooking (though not the oven, unless we're doing something really long and slow in it). We find it doesn't respond well to repeated lighting and going out, so keeping it modestly hot all the time seems to work best.

The secret though, as you say, is to keep busy. I've been building double-glazing units in the garden this morning.

[mikepepler]

4pm update on gas at http://marketinformation.natgrid.co.uk/ ... gView.aspx

LRS down to 108 GWh (10 mcm)
MRS down to 2,301 GWh (209 mcm)
SRS down to 44 GWh (4 mcm)
LNG down to 7,047 GWh (640 mcm)

Bear in mind that was at 6am, and given the usage since then, it appears we are already eating into the 'cushion gas' at Rough LRS, as it will have gone 'negative' by now, which I think is a first. Withdrawals from MRS have continued today too, as have LNG (although there's plenty of this for now). Graphs are at: http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/efd/ezgraph.htm

I wonder if the press will say anything tomorrow at 4pm when Rough is officially announced to be 'below empty'?

[ujoni08]

So, excluding liquified natural gas coming onshore from ships, we have about 13 hours in all storage combined?

I can't believe the media is so quiet about this. Either they don't know/care, or they're being 'leant on' to keep quiet about it.

[clv101]

So, excluding liquified natural gas coming onshore from ships, we have about 13 hours in all storage combined?

That's not the best way to consider the data. It's not '13 hours' the maximum flow rates from storage aren't anything like high enough to extract it that fast. What the remaining storage represents is another week or so of around 10% contribution. Fingers crossed, the weather will have improved in a week such that any more isn't needed.

Interesting to see Rough still supplying ~20 mcm/day this morning!

[adam2]

So, excluding liquified natural gas coming onshore from ships, we have about 13 hours in all storage combined?

I can't believe the media is so quiet about this. Either they don't know/care, or they're being 'leant on' to keep quiet about it.

I think that it is a little more than 13 hours as there is also the "linepack", that is gas in effect stored in the pipeline system.
Demand can be reduced by cutting off large industrial users on interuptable tarrifs.
We could probably attract a bit more imported gas by paying more.
Gas burnt for electricity generation could be reduced a bit by attracting more electricity imports, again at a high price.
Demand should drop soon due to warmer weather.

My concern is not the next few days, but next winter. The long term storage takes about 6 months to fill and there must be some doubt as whether it can be filled before next winter, remembering that Summer imports may be limited by maintenance shutdowns.

[ujoni08]

Thanks, yes, I worded that poorly. I meant to say that the amount we have left in all storage combined equates to about half a day's UK Winter consumption (though of course we are still getting gas from ships and via the pipelines). That is a very poor state of affairs, and I agree with Mike's and Adam's concerns about re-filling the storage in time for next Winter. I believe Germany has about 80 days worth in storage.

[mikepepler]

Chris: yes, and more importantly Rough supplied 20-25/mcm in the 24 hours to 6am today, so that's at least 220 GWh, when there was only 108 GWh left in it. This means they are pumping out the 'cushion gas' - nice to know that there is a reserve there, albeit at reducing flow rates as it is used up I assume. I suppose there are no published figures on how long this can go on...

adam/ujoni: I agree, next winter is the real crunch point, especially with coal plants shutting down. The fact the Rough is going to be 'below empty' before refilling starts makes it worse still! Better pray for a mild winter!

[Tarrel]

Better pray for a mild winter

Or prepare alternative heating/cooking/hot water sources.

[adam2]

Better pray for a mild winter

Or prepare alternative heating/cooking/hot water sources.

Yes, it is always well to be prepared with alternatives to mains services. It is however most unlikely that the domestic natural gas supply would be cut off. There are serious safety implications both in reducing the pressure prior to it going off entirely, and in later re-instating the gas supply.

It is much more likely that energy intensive industries would be cut off, and that gas burning power stations would be cut off with rota power cuts resulting.
Many modern gas appliances also require electricity and would therefore be useless during power cuts, but should work fine afterwards.

[mikepepler]

I'd been puzzling over the Bacton Interconnector site, but it's becoming a bit clearer now. On the link below, look at the 'hourly nominations' charts - IBT refers to the Bacton end of the pipe, with green being imports and red being exports. The little black triangles show the net transfer of gas, as it looks like there are simultaneous trades in both directions, some of which cancel out.
http://www.interconnector.com/iuk/dailysum

There was a drop scheduled today around 2pm, and this does indeed show up on the National Grid site:
http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/efd/ezgraph.htm
Though I'm puzzled as to why it has dropped to zero, when the Interconnector website indicated there should still be some flowing. Anyway, it does it least give some forward indication of imports.

More to come at the 4pm National Grid update, as I'm interested to see how they represent a 'negative' storage level in Rough on their website!

[mikepepler]

Well, the numbers are out, and Rough is now 'below zero', at -132 GWh... I've done a write up here: http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... ained.html

it includes the graph below, which I only just thought of plotting - this gives us some idea of how injection and withdrawal rates at Rough vary according to the stock level:

UK Rough gas storage withdrawl-injection vs stock level by mikepepler, on Flickr

[RenewableCandy]

Beeb News sent me a survey, and among other things I said they don't cover the energy situation at all well. This stuff should be on the front page of "Business/Economy", if not the front page of "Home".

But we do have Gideon parking on a Disabled space, so I suppose that's nearly as good

[mikepepler]

I've just done another update, with some figures from Reuters. Apparently we can draw about 100mcm (1,100 GWh) our of Rough after it's 'empty'. But we'd already drawn 290 GWh out by 6am yesterday...
http://peakoilupdate.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... s-out.html