Brexit process

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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:Also damages the lib dems who would be screwed if we left the EU.
If we leave the EU then the libdems are basically stuck trying to campaign to rejoin, which is rather a limiting place to be.

I'll be amazed if Johnson gets a deal through, but I'm certainly not ruling it out.

EDIT: based on what I am reading elsewhere on the internet, this proposed deal has very little chance of passing. A lot of brexiteers not buying it.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Current proposed deal is illegal under UK legislation:

https://twitter.com/StewartWood/status/ ... de%3Dfalse

EDIT: and has been rejected by "Labour Leave" as annexation of NI and BRINO

This deal will not pass.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

Laws can change UE.

Assuming deal is agreed, EU need to move to shutdown alternative options.

Rule out long extension - that kills 2nd referendum option in house of commons.

Only agree short extension to facilitate approval of deal.

If Commons votes down deal no extension of article 50 (other then final no deal preparations).

That leaves revoking by Commons as nuclear option.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

If the EU are smart they will go down this path.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:Laws can change UE.

Assuming deal is agreed, EU need to move to shutdown alternative options.

Rule out long extension - that kills 2nd referendum option in house of commons.
EU won't do that. They want a plan B if the deal fails.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

We'll see. What happens if the bloc collectively decides it isn't in their interests to see the UK reverse Brexit?

DUP holding out now.

Otherwise deal looks ready to go.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
Little John

Post by Little John »

It's a stitch up. It's May's shitty capitulation treaty rehashed. In other words, it's Brino.

It will either not pass or it does pass and this shit does not end.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:It's a stitch up. It's May's shitty capitulation treaty rehashed. In other words, it's Brino.

It will either not pass or it does pass and this shit does not end.
It won't pass. Will fail by at least 20 votes.
cubes
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Post by cubes »

Little John wrote:It's a stitch up. It's May's shitty capitulation treaty rehashed. In other words, it's Brino.

It will either not pass or it does pass and this shit does not end.
A deal will always be a compromise. I do wonder when no deal brexit really came to the fore as I never heard it mentioned once during the referendum campaign - I was promised "the easiest deal ever" (rofl).
Little John

Post by Little John »

cubes wrote:
Little John wrote:It's a stitch up. It's May's shitty capitulation treaty rehashed. In other words, it's Brino.

It will either not pass or it does pass and this shit does not end.
A deal will always be a compromise. I do wonder when no deal brexit really came to the fore as I never heard it mentioned once during the referendum campaign - I was promised "the easiest deal ever" (rofl).
You are either a liar or a fool and possibly both and I frankly could care less either way. The only thing people like you are going to understand is brute reality on the ground. Well, that is what is coming, either way. This is going to go where it will go.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Here are the details.
Northern Ireland would be part of the UK's customs territory, however it would follow EU customs rules (ie no customs border on the island of Ireland).

Goods that carry no risk (for example the personal goods of someone moving to Northern Ireland from Britain + list of goods that will be covered by criteria set by the joint committee) will be exempt.

There will be a rebate mechanism. This will have to adhere to state aid rules.

The Northern Ireland text fundamentally builds on Feb. 2018 text (ie the Northern Ireland only backstop), reconciling it with UK requests

Main parts of the rest of the withdrawal agreement (citizens' rights, UK financial commitments and transition) fundamentally unchanged from current agreement

As mentioned earlier (and as reported by @tconnellyRTE ), VAT is still the main open issue: UK has asked for Northern Ireland to not be subject to the EU's VAT regime, which is problematic for the EU.

On consent there will be a reference in the agreement to the mechanism + a unilateral UK declaration

--

after four years, Stormont decides by simple majority whether to maintain the arrangements for four more years. If vote is affirmative, after four more years there would be another vote if this has cross-community support

if the vote is against the arrangements, there would be a two year cooling off period

if Stormont is not in a position to vote, the arrangements stay

On the political declaration, UK has asked for a specific reference to a future relationship based on an FTA with zero quotas and tariffs + no references to a customs union.

On level playing field provisions, which have proven to be another stumbling block, EU made clear LPF guarantees have to be stronger than in most FTAs because of geography. Agreement requires appropriate implementation mechanisms and a framework for fair future competition.

This is what happens tomorrow if there an agreement in time:

EUCO conclusions to endorse agreement and call for its ratification. UK expected to have a Commons vote on Saturday. EU27 ambassadors could meet again, and agreement then goes to the European Parliament
I don't get this bit:
if the vote is against the arrangements, there would be a two year cooling off period
And what happens after the cooling off period if Stormont votes against it again?
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

The two year 'cooling off' is equivalent to the transition period?

If this had been presented months ago, a week after May lost her 3rd vote, I think it'd pass. Today however, too close to GE, two much bad blood, too many MPs want to take Johnson down. Vote will be closer than May ever got.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

clv101 wrote:The two year 'cooling off' is equivalent to the transition period?
Transition to what, though? A hard border?
stumuz1
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Post by stumuz1 »

DUP says 'NO'
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clv101
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Post by clv101 »

UndercoverElephant wrote:
clv101 wrote:The two year 'cooling off' is equivalent to the transition period?
Transition to what, though? A hard border?
'alternative arrangements'
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