Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

So, today is the day the wheels come off the Johnsonmobile!

Parliament is going to pass legislation making no deal illegal, even though it will cost at least a handful of tory MPs their careers. Johnson will try to call an election under the FTPA and Labour will whip against it, citing the need to make sure no deal is prevented.

This is like some judo move where you use your opponents momentum against them. Instead of engaging for the fight, Labour just unexpectedly steps out of the way, leaving Johnson's brexit strategy in tatters. Can't leave with no deal (illegal), can't leave with May's deal, can't get May's deal changed, can't get an election before October 31st even though all trace of a working majority blown to smithereens. He can't even deselect Hammond, whose constituency party has just reselected him.

Johnson will then be forced to ask for the article 50 extension he's repeatedly declared he won't ask for under any circumstances, and Nigel Farage will make hay in the sunshine. Then as soon as the extension is granted, Labour will VonC the government, and win. Absolute class!

[Little John]

LJ - will you be voting conservative?

I will vote for the devil himself if it gets Brexit. Who, specifically, that will be will depend on circumstances as they unfold.

[stumuz1]

So, today is the day the wheels come off the Johnsonmobile!

Not so sure, although we will know by tonight.

Depends how many labour MP's fear/respect/agree with their vote leaving constituencies.

And how many Tory MP's have a spine to genuinely vote according to their conscience.

Nothing is certain in these febrile times.

[RevdTess]

I would absolutely not be surprised if the emergency motion to take control of the order paper fails. It's going to be really close. Labour Leave vs Tory Remain will decide the future.

It now seems to suit all anti-no-deal MPs to avoid a GE before October 31st if they do get the anti-no-deal law through. They surely want to enforce BJ's Oct 31 failure first before going to the people.

But what do we think about the possibility of the govt trying to repeal the FTPA? No 2/3 majority needed for that option. I mean, it'll seem really cynical and self-serving, but what doesn't these days? It's all-out political war by any means necessary and possible.

Anyway, I still suspect the emergency motion may fail due to Labour Leavers and wobbly Tory Remainers, in which case we all get to see how no-deal works out in practice.

[Snail]

If labour vote against a general election, I wonder if Jeremy Corbyn will feel an obligation to resign.

[Little John]

...But what do we think about the possibility of the govt trying to repeal the FTPA? No 2/3 majority needed for that option. I mean, it'll seem really cynical and self-serving, but what doesn't these days? It's all-out political war by any means necessary and possible....

That is a very interesting observation and one I had not considered

[Little John]

If labour vote against a general election, I wonder if Jeremy Corbyn will feel an obligation to resign.

Will he bollocks. His principles have been progressively jettisoned over the course of the last three years. His only goal now is power at any cost. Thus, he will have worked out, along with other Remainers, than an election right now could easily go The Tories way. I suspect he may well instruct Labour MPs to now vote against a VoNC.

[UndercoverElephant]

But what do we think about the possibility of the govt trying to repeal the FTPA? No 2/3 majority needed for that option.

That's exactly why it won't happen right now. (EDIT: I changed my mind, see below)

[Little John]

But what do we think about the possibility of the govt trying to repeal the FTPA? No 2/3 majority needed for that option.

That's exactly why it won't happen right now.

why what won't happen?

[UndercoverElephant]

But what do we think about the possibility of the govt trying to repeal the FTPA? No 2/3 majority needed for that option.

That's exactly why it won't happen right now.

why what won't happen?

Actually I have changed my mind.

If Labour doesn't vote for an election (which looks guaranteed now, according to various tweets flying around), then the tories have two options available to them. They can either call a VonC in themselves, or they can repeal the FTPA. They could conceivably try either.

[Lord Beria3]

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... s_aug_2019

UE - read this and weep.

Blondemoney calling it for hard Brexit and ge after 31st October.

As eurointeligence says today boris would rather go to jail then extend article 50.

[clv101]

That the FTPA can be amended by the act of parliament with a majority of one really goes to show what a hopeless bit of legislation it is. We can blame Cameron for that, as well.

[Little John]

https://www.comresglobal.com/the-people ... e-masters/

[Lord Beria3]

Fascinating results.

Public anger will be huge and assuming we avoid civil unrest i would expect sweeping changes to our political order at some point.

[Lord Beria3]

BlondeMoney analysis:

Boris landslide election win after No Deal Brexit

Boris' speech tonight was aimed at the public. He will deliver Brexit by 31st October and then deliver his Reaganite domestic agenda.

To win big, he must provoke anger and re-run the referendum's totemic The People vs The Elites campaign.

TIMELINE:

Government to lose Extension vote by 7 votes
BlondeMoney Prediction as of 7.30pm 2 Sept 2019

Boris vows to ignore it, brings on battle with the judiciary

Calls Remainers’ bluff and brings forward dissolution of Parliament for Oct 14th election

Labour anti-Corbyn moderates vote against Boris’ dissolution

Boris wins election after 31st October No Deal, backing The People over The Elites

This strategy:

Exposes Labour’s split
Exposes Tory Rebels
Exposes lack of tools to prevent No Deal