Brexit process

[Little John]

Nobody knows what will happen next week.

Conventions, those gentleman's agreement to do what has been done before, are now up for grabs.

All sorts of hitherto shenanigans are going to come out of the woodwork.

Oh that I do believe.

But, that's the point. What Johnson is doing and may do if I am correct is not unconstitutional.

The only way remainers in parliament get to stop Brexit now is either:

Revoke A50. which they are constitutionally allowed to do, but with will be political suicide for them.

or:

Do something entirely unconstitutional, in turn provoking a REAL constitutional crisis. Which will also be politically suicidal.

[Mark]

There you go again, insulting those you don't agree with and attributing opinions to them. I can see why you and LJ are kindred spirits...
I am neither 'rabid', nor did I vote remain.
Another unpleasant post, but I understand that you can't help yourself.

There you go again using obfuscation and reverse Psychology to avoid standing by a very thin point.

As you've pointed out before, I'm not clever enough to use obfuscation or reverse psychology.
I can spot when somebody is insulting though.
I can also spot when somebody attributes opinions to me.
& I get plenty of practice on this website.....

[Mark]

Anyway, moving on to Ruth Davidson.
Yes, she quoted her family life, but all politicians say that, so you think it's just a coincidence that she's resigned 1 day after BoJo prorogues Parliament ?

Mark, do some checking before you post. The self harming, mental health issues are all in the public domain, she has been honest about them. That is why she is liked.

True, but also true is her disdain for BoJo and his Hard-Brexit approach.
Did you not see her clashing with him at the Brexit debate ?
The timing of her resignation tells me everything, but it could also be coincidence.
You choose which story to believe, I choose which I believe.
Fair enough ?

[Little John]

Here's a thought, how's about choosing to believe the words that came out of her nothing left to lose and nothing left to gain mouth the other day, no more or less.

[Mark]

A 'scorched 'earth' hard-Brexit forced through by English Nationalists is not the way forward....

That is what happens when you legitimise Welsh, Scottish, and Northern Ireland nationalism, but treat English nationalism with disdain. And that is from a half Welsh Half Scottish Welsh speaker, who has lived in Wales all his life.

If I understand your thinking correctly, you believe that Scotland voted 'remain' out of self interest, but with a hard-Brexit will then be happy to remain in the UK out of self interest ?
I think it would play out very differently and a hard-Brexit would inevitably lead to Scottish independence.
Only time will tell on this....

Also, if I understand you correctly, you believe it was wrong to establish Parliaments/Assemblies in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland ?
You believe that everything should be centrally controlled again from London ?
Or that we should set up a separate English Parliament ?
Genuine question - polite answer only please.

[UndercoverElephant]

Nobody knows what will happen next week.

Conventions, those gentleman's agreement to do what has been done before, are now up for grabs.

All sorts of hitherto shenanigans are going to come out of the woodwork.

Parliament is sovereign. It can so whatever it can find a majority for. That includes repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act and abolishing the monarchy.

[Little John]

Nobody knows what will happen next week.

Conventions, those gentleman's agreement to do what has been done before, are now up for grabs.

All sorts of hitherto shenanigans are going to come out of the woodwork.

Parliament is sovereign. It can so whatever it can find a majority for. That includes repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act and abolishing the monarchy.

Of course it can do all of these things. All it needs to do is revoke A50, however.....

Meanwhile, got a link to that legislation stating the Johnson can be forced to accept a interim administration during the 14 days following a VoNC?

[UndercoverElephant]

So, we are back to where this was always going to end

When all of the bullshit is washed away MP's have and have always had only one choice to make - Revoke A50. Thus far, they have failed to do so for one simple reason.

Revoking article 50 will remain a "nuclear option" up until the last moment, provided parliament is sitting. I don't think it is going to happen though. Not this side of an election, at least.

But, you seem to think they would revoke A50, given they have had three years to do so when the political temperature was much lower than now? When they did not know about how their respective parties were going to get slaughtered in the EU elections? Immediately prior to a GE where the central theme will be one of the people versus parliament?

I don't think they will revoke article 50, no. I think there is going to be an extension and a general election. Article 50 will only get revoked if the tories lose that election and remain wins a subsequent referendum.

Oh, and once again, I see you hysterically pulling out the "constitutional crisis" card.

I have no idea why you think I am hysterical. I was describing a situation where we have, in effect, two rival governments. One occupying Downing Street without a majority, and one unable to occupy Downing Street even though it has a majority. That really is a constitutional crisis.

Furthermore, I did not say Johnson could refuse to exit downing street in perpetuity. I said he has the right to remain in position for the entire 14 days following a VoNC and then to call an election.

Because he does.

No he doesn't. The FTPA says that if an alternative leader can pass a vote of confidence, we get a new government. That means Johnson has to go, and if he doesn't there's a massive constitutional crisis.

Parliament is sovereign. You can't have a prime minister making key decisions about the future of the country without a majority when there's a rival leader who does have a majority being prevented from taking a different action. That is a recipe for the collapse of our political system.

Okay, I will explain again, since you don't seem to understand what the term "constitutional crisis" means. A constitutional crisis occurs when one part of the constitution (we don't have one by the way) is in direct and serious contradiction with another part. Or, where one or more pillars of the office of state is overtly acting against the rules of that constitution.

And you think two rival governments claiming power doesn't fit that description???

Nothing, so far as I understand the legislation that I have outlined, that Johnson may do is either contradictory in legislative terms nor is it outside of the legislation.

Unless, to repeat, you have a link to legislation that shows what I have suggested lies outside of legislation?

Can you provide that link?

I have genuinely got no idea what you are talking about, Steve. There's no point in me explaining it again. If Johnson loses a VonC, and Corbyn wins one, then either Johnson makes way or we have a constitutional crisis. I have no idea how anybody who has read the FTPA can come to any other conclusion, because the legislation is very clear.

[Little John]

No he doesn't. The FTPA says that if an alternative leader can pass a vote of confidence, we get a new government. That means Johnson has to go, and if he doesn't there's a massive constitutional crisis.

Link please to the specific section of the legislation showing where, if an alternative leader is found, the sitting administration can be ejected during the 14 days prior to calling for an election

[Little John]

I have genuinely got no idea what you are talking about, Steve. There's no point in me explaining it again. If Johnson loses a VonC, and Corbyn wins one, then either Johnson makes way or we have a constitutional crisis. I have no idea how anybody who has read the FTPA can come to any other conclusion, because the legislation is very clear.

You've not "explained", you have asserted and have not provided citations to the legislation where that assertion is backed up. You have simply repeated the assertions.

Links please

However, I really can save you the bother. There is precisely nothing in the legislation that that requires the incumbent to leave during those 14 days. He is entirely at liberty to stay put and then call the election, which he is legally required to do. That is, by definition, entirely constitutional.

[adam2]

"Judge rejects call to stop shutdown of parliament"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland- ... s-49521132

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointeligence latest...

The gloves are off - let the Brexit massacre begin

The gloves have come off on both sides. MPs are now plotting a strategy to take total control of the House of Commons, and anti-Brexit Lords have devised a strategy to frustrate a filibuster. The important question is not whether a legislative route is theoretically possible within the time limits - we think it probably is - but whether the rebels have the votes, and if they do, whether such legislation is effective. On the first, we don’t think they do. On the second, we are sure that it is not.

Rebels are on a steep learning curve. Some are still ignorant of the legal foundations of Brexit. We noted one suggestion yesterday in favour of making a no-deal Brexit illegal, which is of course impossible as the UK cannot unilaterally alter Art. 50. Among a series of bad options, the best is probably legislation to force Johnson to extend Brexit. The FT writes that there are between 20 and 40 Tory MPs who are considering voting against the government. There are also some 10 or so Labour MPs in Brexit supporting constituencies who would vote against another extension. The numbers are tight.

There is a lot of arm-twisting going on in the background - coupled with the implicit threat that a vote in favour of anti-Brexit legislation would most likely trigger elections and the certain deselection of Tory rebels. Tories and Labour MPs are both aware that extension is not a popular option in the country. The April extension brought victory to Nigel Farage’s party in the European elections in May. If parliament votes in favour of a law to extend, it is possible that Johnson would then risk a pre-Brexit election, with the support of Corbyn. We think he will probably do at least as well as Theresa May did two years ago, but with MPs that are committed to his Brexit strategy. 

The former justice secretary, David Gauke, argued the prorogation had shifted views among Tory MPs who were previously sitting on the fence. They might now support anti-Brexit legislation. What speaks against it is the simple fact that we are not yet in Brexit no-deal land. If the Commons can pass no deal legislation in a week, then surely they can do so after prorogation too. 

We noted a comment by Stephen Kinnock, who is not optimistic that the rebels can win next week’s legislative gambit. Nor would Jeremy Corbyn or another figure command the majority of the Commons to form an alternative government, although this option will no doubt be attempted if legislation fails next week. This leaves the return of Theresa May’s old withdrawal bill as the best way to stop a no deal Brexit. Labour should offer to support for this bill.

Simon Jenkins agrees with this judgement in the Guardian. We also agree that the old withdrawal agreement bill remains a good platform for a compromise.

Jenkins also makes an observation that will surely baffle non-Brits. He quotes a former supreme court justice saying that Johnson’s use of prorogation was unconstitutional but not unlawful - a category that does not exist in countries where the constitution is part of codified law. The rebels have launched a legal challenge against revocation in a Scottish court. Depending on the decision, the issue may go all the way to the Supreme Court.

The Remainers’ biggest weakness is a lack of an overall strategy that extends beyond the narrow confines of the House of Commons and its ancient rules. The single biggest misunderstanding in the Brexit process relates to the nature of Art. 50, which is EU law, not UK law. We were reminded of this once again yesterday when we saw an article in Prospect magazine, which compared the five-week prorogation to Hitler’s Reichstag fire. Apart from the fact that it is never a good idea to make casual Hitler comparisons, the comparison reveals a lot about the author’s exaggerated views on the role of the parliament. Art. 50 gives parliaments two specific rights: ratify a withdrawal deal or revoke. Prorogation will not restrict the parliament’s ability to do either of those things. The problem is that the UK parliament has turned the possibility of Brexit extension, outlined in Art. 50, into a unilateral national procedure. When you point this out to them, one hears that the EU would surely extend because it does not want to be blamed for a hard Brexit. We are sure that this is true in all scenarios. 

Johnson could frustrate even a watertight extension bill by threatening to become a rogue member of the European Council, vetoing every decision that is put in front of him. If push comes to shove, the European Council is more likely to side with Johnson against the parliament, than vice versa, unless they have the confidence that the parliament can produce an alternative PM. This is why the rebels really need a new prime minister in place by end-October. Legislation to extend only works if there is at least some collusion from Number 10

, as was the case with May. 

[stumuz1]

Genuine question - polite answer only please.

I'll answer tonight.....politely!

[stumuz1]

Parliament is sovereign. It can so whatever it can find a majority for. That includes repealing the Fixed Term Parliament Act and abolishing the monarchy.

Wrong, Queen in Parliament is Sovereign.

[Mark]

Genuine question - polite answer only please.

I'll answer tonight.....politely!

Thank you
Opinions on Brexit can get very polarised/emotional, so it helps if we all remain polite and civil to each other, as this is a public forum for debate.
Suspect we'll also need to retain our British sense of humour over the coming months....
In RGR's world, we'd all be blasting each other with Magnums...