Brexit process

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Aug 2019, 05:25

Self preservation is kicking in

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Aug 2019, 08:37

My prediction:

If all legislative pathways for preventing no deal come to nothing, and it looks like we'll get a no deal by default because we've run out of time for anything else, that is when a VonC will succeed and MPs will support Corbyn as temporary PM after all. That VonC will be key. Every MP will know that if it fails then the game is over. They'll also know that if it succeeds and they don't back Corbyn as PM, then we'll end up a no-deal brexit during an election campaign.

They've said they won't do it, and they don't want to give Corbyn that credibility, but when they are staring down both barrels of no deal, they will cave.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Aug 2019, 09:04

Why will "staring down both barrels of no deal" cause them to "cave" in one direction more than staring down both barrels of the end of their political careers is already causing them to cave in the opposite direction?

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Aug 2019, 09:20

Cat, pigeons.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Aug 2019, 10:01

stumuz1 wrote:Cat, pigeons.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49493632

This is a "put up or shut up" to his own rebels. He's either going to get his prorogation and no deal, or an election. He wants either. What he does NOT want is an attempt to legislate to prevent no deal, which is what the opponents of no deal agreed to yesterday.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Aug 2019, 10:02

Little John wrote:Why will "staring down both barrels of no deal" cause them to "cave" in one direction more than staring down both barrels of the end of their political careers is already causing them to cave in the opposite direction?

As discussed before, some those political careers are already over anyway, for one reason or another.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 28 Aug 2019, 10:07

So, reports suggest it is from now until 14th of October. Leaving only a few weeks for Remainer MPs to get anything through parliament to stop Brexit.

I think Johnson's strategy is two fold:

1) MP's call a vote of no confidence today in which case, Johnson immediately calls a snap election and campaigns (with justification) on a ticket of representing the people against a treacherous parliament. He will win that election and Brexit will happen anyway. Especially if Johnson enters into a non aggression pact with Farage.

2) MP's are faced with the prospect of enacting anti Brexit legislation right up to the wire in the last half of October. In turn, giving Johnson all the ammunition he needs to demonize them (with justification) as being in opposition to the people. At which point, either their efforts will fail or, if they succeed, Johnson will call an election. He will win that election and Brexit will happen anyway. Especially if Johnson enters into a non aggression pact with Farage.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Aug 2019, 11:37

Peston wrote: The bloodiness of this battle is not to be under-estimated. A No10 source told me: "If MPs pass a vote of no confidence next week, then we'll stay in No10, we won't recommend any alternative government,...

"we'll dissolve parliament and have an election between 1 and 5 November - and that means no time for legislation".

So we're back to Johnson saying that even if a VonC succeeds, he won't go. Major constitutional crisis territory.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Aug 2019, 11:41

Little John wrote: 1) MP's call a vote of no confidence today.

Not sure they can do that when parliament isn't sitting. It'll be the day they come back, pretty much guaranteed.

MP's are faced with the prospect of enacting anti Brexit legislation right up to the wire in the last half of October. In turn, giving Johnson all the ammunition he needs to demonize them (with justification) as being in opposition to the people. At which point, either their efforts will fail or, if they succeed, Johnson will call an election. He will win that election and Brexit will happen anyway. Especially if Johnson enters into a non aggression pact with Farage.

They don't have enough time to do that now. I think it is a succesful VonC or no deal. Any MP who votes for the government in a VonC, in the hope there can be a legislative block to no deal is taking an enormous risk.

And as for whether Johnson can win the election, we'll see. Personally I'd still say it is the most difficult election to predict in modern british history. All sorts of things might happen.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Aug 2019, 11:51

UndercoverElephant wrote:. Major constitutional crisis territory.

Just like the last one.... and the one before that...and

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Aug 2019, 12:01

Just seen Anna Sourbry on Sky news

https://giphy.com/gifs/tantrum-sad-baby-13AXYJh2jDt2IE

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 28 Aug 2019, 12:18

Interesting that the comments on BBC website are getting majority recommendations for posts saying this is anti-democratic and a right wing coup attempt. Normally BBC comment recommendations are pro Brexit.

This will be contested in the courts

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 28 Aug 2019, 12:41

stumuz1 wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:. Major constitutional crisis territory.
Just like the last one.... and the one before that...and

It is all the same one. Something actually has to break now though. There has to be actual winners and losers.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Aug 2019, 13:06

UndercoverElephant wrote:
It is all the same one. Something actually has to break now though. There has to be actual winners and losers.

Just like the last time.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 28 Aug 2019, 13:07

PS_RalphW wrote:

This will be contested in the courts

Be interesting to see the Queen give evidence! I wonder which oath she will swear to?