BritDownUnder wrote: ↑14 Feb 2025, 09:55
You do have to ask how you we there and the answer lies with the EU. They have massive trade surpluses with both the UK and US. They take nearly 100 bilion pounds per annum off the UK and much mroe from the US yet they underinvest in their defence and have only grudgingly helped Ukraine. Biden and Obama come a close second. Failure to help Ukraine and stand up to Russia has been going on a long time.
The UK chose to leave the EU and then 'self-sabotaged' ourselves in the post-Brexit trade arrangements.
So....., we can't complain about running a massive trade deficit with them.
The Brexit deal was rubbish and we're suffering the consequences...
Agree with your broader point that the EU's NATO Members need to spend more on defence.
There are historical reasons why the Germans don't, but they've got to get past that...
The UK last had a trade surplus with the world in 1974 (currently about $800bn imports and $520bn exports) and that was about when the UK joined the precurser to the EU. Could be unrelated but unlikely. British invisible earnings helped close the gap for a while. The Brexit debarcle was pure farce with teh UK not having enough Customs officers and waving through EU imports while the EU border officials probably checked the last full stop of British documentation. Has to be seen to be believed I suppose.
Germans are good at pulling the guilt act when they have to reach their hand in their pocket. They do make some good stuff. That Gepard self propelled flak gun seems to be a real gem.
Mark wrote: ↑17 Feb 2025, 10:24
Looks like we might be sending peacekeeping troops.....
Slippery slope approaching....
British troops to defend food exports to terror source countries and rare earths and uranium for the US industries. Sounds like a good deal to me.
Sending UK troops is daft, we are party to the fight, not even remotely a neutral third party. UK troops policing a demilitarised zone would be about as acceptable to Russia as using Iranians or Belarussians would be to Ukraine.
It cannot happen anyway. There can be no lasting guarantee of peace without a NATO-backed guarantee for Ukraine's future security. Anything less than that means the war will restart at a future date, so there is no point in Ukraine (or anybody else in Europe) agreeing to it.
I don't think there is any peace deal coming. It looks to me more likely that NATO is going to start falling apart.
We must deal with reality or it will deal with us.
Outcome of the talks: Russia will not accept NATO troops in Ukraine = won't accept NATO protection for Ukraine = the war won't end until Russia either taken Ukraine entirely, or been defeated.
Your move, Mr President.
We must deal with reality or it will deal with us.
The talks will be as successful as those between US and North Korea during Trump phase one. Trump will claim peace in our time and drop a few token sanctions, which will not be mirrored by any other nation. Trump will quietly renew arms shipments to UKraine, as part of a "business contract" with some foreign powers as a fig leaf.
Wow. The US is now saying Zelensky needs to go, and claiming that Ukraine already owes the US half its future mineral resources to pay it back for money already spent.
At this point European countries have little choice but to prepare for a full-scale war with Russia, without US support. Trump is leading the world directly towards WW3. Without NATO.
We must deal with reality or it will deal with us.
Trump is proving to be way more based than expected! He was elected to look after his own people, and he's now doing that by winding down the US's far abroad imperialistic commitments.
invalid wrote: ↑19 Feb 2025, 13:50
Trump is proving to be way more based than expected! He was elected to look after his own people, and he's now doing that by winding down the US's far abroad imperialistic commitments.
Britain could do with someone similar
Leaving Russia to invade its previously peaceful neighbours and expand their own imperialistic ambitions...??
I'd be careful what you wish for - you're not the biggest dog in the pound any more...
China's got its eyes on big chunks of (currently) Russian lands in the east....
Goodbye Vladivostok, hello Haishenwai ?
The size of the Chinese population, some 10x Russia's and the size of their economy/manufacturing capacity is incredible. Yes, Russia has incredible natural resources but it lacks the manpower, economy and industrial capacity to exploit them. I can well see a new China/Russia relationship that sees 10-30m Chinese and a trillion dollars of investment into Russia by 2040. This can be a mutually beneficial arrangement, need not be a conflict.
Europe must now prepare for full-scale war with Russia.
International politics usually operates according to the rules of Game Theory. We start by assuming that all the major players are rational actors -- that they will at all times act in what they perceive to be their own best interest, and we assume a certain level of competency and professionalism when important decisions are made. Until now, we have also always assumed that the United States will remain in one piece.
The new federal government has blown both these assumptions out of the water. Trump is an idiot. He does not understand international politics, and in fact I'm not convinced he understands very much at all. It is not supposed to be possible for somebody so unsuited to high political office to end up being the most powerful politician in the world, but it has happened. Many of Trump's decisions are completely irrational, and therefore not in the interests of the US (even though he thinks they are).
It follows that all bets are off. Anything is possible, including scenarios that nobody has seriously considered until now because they basically involve the US systematically shooting itself in the head. This all plays wonderfully into the hands of Vladimir Putin (who is very much a rational actor, and not an idiot). We now have no guarantee that NATO is going to remain in one piece, and the probability of a breakup of the United States is growing all the time, because US is socio-culturally imploding. I expect that right now Putin is considering all sorts of new options -- wondering exactly how much territory Russia might ultimately plan to grab. There's no way his interest stops at Ukraine's western border. He will see Europe as vulnerable, because it had made too many unsafe assumptions about the future of the United States with respect to global affairs.
It looks to me like we are somewhere like where we were in 1938. Economically broken, and with no stomach to prepare for another major war. Putin isn't quite Hitler, but its close enough. There is only one way to stop Putin's Russia, and it isn't by sending negotiators to give him everything he wants for now in the hope that he will not return for more. All European countries must now focus on preparing for war.
We must deal with reality or it will deal with us.
