Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

We appear to have reached the point where the fantasy in Donald Trump's mind is about to collide with reality. Never mind his insane "plan" for Gaza, which everybody has told him can't work but he's doubled down on anyway. He now thinks he can negotiate a peace deal on behalf of Ukraine without actually involving Ukraine, or anybody else in Europe. This simply won't work -- the Ukrainians aren't going to sign up to a peace deal which both underplays their hand (because it was being negotiated by a rank idiot who lacks a basic understanding of European politics, history and culture), and which Russia won't stick to. Trump does not appear to understand that Putin cannot be trusted to abide by any agreement. This is exactly why NATO must be involved, and why NATO membership for whatever remains of Ukraine is of critical importance.

Trump is highly unlikely to get what he wants out of this situation. Or at least he won't get peace in Ukraine. He might get the breakup of NATO, if that is what he wants, but the consequences of this are on a scale way beyond anything that has happened since the end of WW2. It would mean that the US is not just losing its global empire, but losing its most important allies in any future WW3. Will the US establishment "deep state" allow such a thing to happen?

[Mark]

Russia has gained millions of extra people, taken nearly all the most valuable land in Ukraine, added resilience to it's economy, and deepened trade links with the global majority.

What has Ukraine got? Anything left is going on fire sale to US and European corporations. They've lost millions of people - injured killed or fled or living a better life abroad. Certainly Zelensky and some of his chums have managed to make a pretty pie off all the aid...

UK ruling class still intent on sending tens of billions - they don't give a damn about the working class of Britain.

Reports that the largest drone factory in Ukraine was destroyed during the latest strike on Kyiv. Andriivka is almost completely liberated.

I'll correct for you:
Russia has added extra people - many against their will, and against international laws (ie kidnapped)...
Russia has taken some land in Ukraine - most of which is now unusable due to the warfare waged on it, but also lost a good chunk of its own...
Russia's economy is less resilient and suffering inflation due to the sanctions imposed...
Russia has deepened trade links with it's only friend left in the world - North Korea

The UK stood up to Hitler - it cost us loads, but it was the right thing to do.
The UK is standing up to Putin - yes, it's costing us, but it's the right thing to do....

[Ralphw2]

A lot of people including historians on the BBC calling this Trump's Chamberlain moment, where appeasement only leads to war, possibly world war. I have never heard such concerted and open criticism of a US President's failure of leadership.

There will be no peace in Ukraine whilst Trump is in the Whitehouse.

At least Hamas and Israel are backing down on the hostage situation, n spite of Trump's meddling

[UndercoverElephant]

A lot of people including historians on the BBC calling this Trump's Chamberlain moment, where appeasement only leads to war, possibly world war.

Not only that, but possibly a world war that nobody was expecting. And by that I don't mean that people aren't expecting WW3 to break out, but that it may play out in ways that are completely unexpected because Trump is an irrational actor and it is not at all clear what is going to happen in the US if things start going seriously tits-up. Is there a mechanism to get rid of Trump if even his own supporters reach the point where they realise they are heading towards a world war with an irrational fool in charge of their country?

[BritDownUnder]

Russia took a lot of the best land in Ukraine that is true. The land between the Dneiper and Crimea is very fertile but a lot needed irrigation along with Crimea and the Russians in their wisdom blew the dam and Ukraine has a firm hold of the other bank. I took think it is a Czechoslovakia moment for Trump and Hegseth in particular. Hegseth's negotiation skills are back in the Kindegarten and I don't think he has many more days in the job.

You do have to ask how you we there and the answer lies with the EU. They have massive trade surpluses with both the UK and US. They take nearly 100 bilion pounds per annum off the UK and much mroe from the US yet they underinvest in their defence and have only grudgingly helped Ukraine. Biden and Obama come a close second. Failure to help Ukraine and stand up to Russia has been going on a long time.

I am a bit disappointed really as Ukraine was killing up to 2000 Russians per day and it should have continued for a few more years.

[Ralphw2]

Russian drones have hit Romania, Moldova and punctured the new radiation shield at Chernobyl. Russian donkeys are now being deployed to carry munitions to the front lines.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvgl27x74wpo

'Army of Europe' needed to challenge Russia says Zelensky

Looks like the beginning of the end for NATO. The US needs to seriously consider whether that is in its own interests. From a short-sighted Trumpian viewpoint, NATO is an undesirable expense. From a bigger perspective, NATO is what holds the whole of the Western world together in one piece. Nothing else does. So to get rid of it at a time when the US is also ideologically diverging from Europe could have enormous implications for the future course of world history. It demands nothing less than a total rethink of European politics, in a way which will not be in the interest of the US. It is the thin end of what may eventually turn out to be a very large wedge.

[Mark]

You do have to ask how you we there and the answer lies with the EU. They have massive trade surpluses with both the UK and US. They take nearly 100 bilion pounds per annum off the UK and much mroe from the US yet they underinvest in their defence and have only grudgingly helped Ukraine. Biden and Obama come a close second. Failure to help Ukraine and stand up to Russia has been going on a long time.

The UK chose to leave the EU and then 'self-sabotaged' ourselves in the post-Brexit trade arrangements.
So....., we can't complain about running a massive trade deficit with them.
The Brexit deal was rubbish and we're suffering the consequences...

Agree with your broader point that the EU's NATO Members need to spend more on defence.
There are historical reasons why the Germans don't, but they've got to get past that...

[UndercoverElephant]

There are historical reasons why the Germans don't, but they've got to get past that...

They already have.

[Mark]

There are historical reasons why the Germans don't, but they've got to get past that...

They already have.

I'm not so sure - it's still deep in their psyche...
Although they may well get a far right government in the near future, which could lead to more unpredictable consequences...

The post 1945 world order seems to be collapsing fast - many more places are starting to look nasty and dangerous....
The UK might soon be very isolated, left holding a torch for liberal democracy...

[clv101]

UK pivoted right/nationalism/populism a decade before the rest of the west... Rest are just catching up with us. Yes, we have a Labour government today, but it's the most right/nationalistic Labour have ever been.

[Mark]

Looks like we might be sending peacekeeping troops.....
Slippery slope approaching....

[UndercoverElephant]

Looks like we might be sending peacekeeping troops.....
Slippery slope approaching....

You cannot send peacekeeping troops if there is no peace.

Donald Trump is about to find out that his power is somewhat more limited than he currently thinks it is.

[adam2]

Looks like we might be sending peacekeeping troops.....
Slippery slope approaching....

I agree, but also consider that the UK is doing the right thing in coming to the aid of Ukraine. Hopefully our European allies will assist and not leave it all to us.
The caveat is that the proposal appears to be to enforce the PRESENT boundaries, and to prevent furthur russian advances. And not to kick out the russian invaders.

Edit to add, that after reading more about this, I am no longer in favour of sending UK troops to Ukraine, as I fear that any such troops would be used not to free Ukraine from the invaders, but to assist the russians in occupying the territory that they have invaded.

I have not deleted my post as that would be misleading to anyone quoting from it.

[invalid]

The caveat is that the proposal appears to be to enforce the PRESENT boundaries, and to prevent furthur russian advances. And not to kick out the russian invaders.

Reality finally dawning?