Syria watch...

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Try this Snow

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The Saker: Week 1 of the Russian Military Intervention in Syria

Yes, the Russian force has been very effective to relieve the pressure on the northwestern front and to allow for a Syrian Army counter-offensive, but that will not, by itself, end the war. For one thing, should things get really ugly, the Daesh crazies can simply repeat what they have already done in the past: cross the border into Turkey, Jordan and Iraq. Furthermore, you cannot hold any ground from the air. For that, “boots on the ground” are needed and Russian boots are not coming – Putin has unambiguously stated that (although he did leave a small door open for a future change of strategy by saying that a ground intervention was not in the “current plans”). Regardless, anything short of a minor or very short intervention would be fantastically hard to sell in Russia and I therefore still don’t believe that it will happen. My bet is on the Iranians. Well, when I say “Iranians” I mean Iranians and their allies, including Hezbollah, but not necessarily in Iranian uniforms.

Chances are, the Iranians and the Syrians will want to keep the magnitude of the Iranian involvement as hidden from view as possible. But, of course, they won’t be able to fool the USA, Turkey or Israel for very long, at least not if a large Iranian force is involved.

So the big question for me is this: what will the USA do if (when?) Iran intervenes in Syria?

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A possible major turning point in the conflict: SAA relief the siege of Kuweries

Pepe Escobar has this interesting piece that puts said battle into sharp context

The Pentagon well knows the Russians have made a deal with the Syrian Kurds; the SAA, with as much Russian support as possible, takes Kuweyres; the YPG advances towards Afrin; and the Russians keep the Turks in check. Without this chain of crucial events, it will be virtually impossible for the “4+1” – Russia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, plus Hezbollah – to cut off the Turkish-enabled resupply corridor for the myriad Salafi-jihadi/”moderate rebel” gaggle.

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The Russian air offensive, in concert with the Syrian Arab Army, has yielded tangible results with the Islamist front line crumbling

There has been an upsurge in reporting in the Western media about starvation in Madaya with the predictable accusations aimed at Assad's forces. Yet again, this narrative disintegrates on closer examination.
Finian Cunningham: west Media Starves Truth in Syria

The half-truth that the Western media don't tell is that many towns in Syria have been, and are still, taken over by foreign-backed mercenary militia. They are terrorists, not "rebels", belonging to such groups as the so-called Islamic State (or Daesh), al Nusra Front and Jaish al-Islam. All of them espouse a twisted, corrupted version of Islam, which ordains that anyone opposed to them can be beheaded or their children gang-raped.

The Western media portray the "Syrian regime" forces as having blockaded the towns and using starvation as a weapon against the residents. Nothing could be further from the truth.

The populations have been held hostage by the terror groups and used as "human shields" to prevent the Syrian army advancing to liberate those being held against their will.

It could be a case of trying to divert attention away from other brutal sieges in Idlib

The reporting of Madaya led to this letter of complaint to the Canadian Broadcast Ombudsman

The letter highlights the role played by Lyce Doucet - who also works for the BBC. Slightly alter that letter and send to the BBC

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The Syrian Arab Army has relieved the siege of two Shia towns of Nibul and Al Zahra and, at the same time, severed one of the main supply routes from Turkey to the jihadist rebels.

Good analysis here and
here

See also: Mike Whitney here

For the last two weeks, the Obama team has been following developments on the ground with growing concern. This is why Secretary of State John Kerry hurriedly assembled a diplomatic mission to convene emergency peace talks in Geneva despite the fact that the various participants had not even agreed to attend. A sense of urgency bordering on panic was palpable from the onset. The goal was never to achieve a negotiated settlement or an honorable peace, but (as Foreign Policy magazine noted) to implement “a broad ‘freeze’ over the whole province of Aleppo, which would then be replicated in other regions later.” This was the real objective, to stop the bleeding any way possible and prevent the inevitable encirclement of Aleppo.

The recapturing of Nubl and Zahraa leaves the jihadists with just one route for transporting weapons, food and fuel to their urban stronghold. When loyalist forces break the blockade at Bab al Hawa to the northeast, the loop will be closed, the perimeter will tighten, the cauldron will be split into smaller enclaves within the city, and the terrorists will either surrender or face certain annihilation. Wednesday’s triumph by the Russian-led coalition is a sign that that day may be approaching sooner than anyone had anticipated.

There was never any meaningful peace process. The main battle now is for Bab al-Hawa - if the Syrian Arab Army can liberate that, then all main supply routes from Turkey to the Islamist rebels will have been severed

[Little John]

Yep

The onslaught of absolutely blatant BBC propaganda attempting to demonise the Russian rout of the Islamists in Syria is both pathetic and deeply sinister in equal measure. This was not the Yank-led plan. Quite the opposite, in fact. Which makes what happens next a very dangerous moment.

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So much for a supposed ceasefire

Moon of Alabama: The race to Raqqa is intensifying

It would appear to be the imminent defeat of the Islamist jihadists in Aleppo - having recently been kicked out of Mennagh air base by the Kurds as their latest setback - has triggered an idiotic response by Turkey and the GCC. The same people who chanted the mantra "Assad must go"

Things could get out of hand here very quickly

[vtsnowedin]

So much for a supposed ceasefire

Moon of Alabama: The race to Raqqa is intensifying

It would appear to be the imminent defeat of the Islamist jihadists in Aleppo - having recently been kicked out of Mennagh air base by the Kurds as their latest setback - has triggered an idiotic response by Turkey and the GCC. The same people who chanted the mantra "Assad must go"

Things could get out of hand here very quickly

Not exactly well in hand now , don't you think?

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So much for a supposed ceasefire

Moon of Alabama: The race to Raqqa is intensifying

It would appear to be the imminent defeat of the Islamist jihadists in Aleppo - having recently been kicked out of Mennagh air base by the Kurds as their latest setback - has triggered an idiotic response by Turkey and the GCC. The same people who chanted the mantra "Assad must go"

Things could get out of hand here very quickly

Not exactly well in hand now , don't you think?

When I say getting out of hand I am referring to an escalation that may trigger WW3

You're right though - since the Wahabbist invasion of Syria over 4 years ago, things have been out of hand there

[johnhemming2]

Gradually the proxies are turning into real forces.

[vtsnowedin]

Score one for the good guys. Isis chemical weapons leader captured.
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-t ... ns-n535061

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It appears that the Syrian Arab Army have liberated Palmyra from the thugs of ISIS

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RT Documentary: In the Name of the Profit: Liberated town reveals ISIS oil trade

Warning: There are scenes of a disturbing nature

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The battle for Aleppo has reached a critical junction.

After the Syrian Arab Army took control of the Castello Road, this has resulted in a cauldron for the trapped jihadists.

On August 1st the jihadists launched an all out assault on South West Aleppo

The stakes for both sides is extremely high:

The current attack on Aleppo is serious. The Syrian army lacks ground forces. Significant professional ground forces from Iran were promised but never arrived. Iran was still dreaming of an accord with the U.S. and therefore holding back on its engagement in Syria. The Afghan farmer battalions Iran recruited are not an alternative for professional troops. Defending against an enemy that is using lots of suicide vehicle bombs to breach fortifications and death-seeking Jihadis to storm field positions is difficult. It demands diligent preparation excellent command and control.

If this attack can be defeated the huge losses al-Qaeda will have to take might end its open military style war. If al-Qaeda succeeds with the attack the Syrian army will need very significant additional ground forces to regain the initiative

This attack failed. The jihadists have had at least three failed attempts to storm SAA positions

The attack started on Sunday and by Monday the 2nd the insurgents (green areas) managed to break Syrian government (red) defenses at the south-western border of Aleppo city. The plan was to break through roughly along the black line. Several vehicle based suicide attacks breached the Syrian front line. The insurgents captured the large, unfinished apartment project 1070 and several hilltop positions. On Tuesday phase 2 launched when they attempted to take the Artillery Academy base a few hundred meters further east. But after intense Syrian and Russian air strikes and nightly counterattacks nearly all positions fell back into Syrian government hands. Despite the failure of their main thrust, al-Qaeda and its allies launched a third phase attack towards Ramouseh district a few hundred meters further north. A tactical mistake as the attackers failed to build a decisive Schwerpunkt. A tunnel deployed bomb destroyed parts of the Syrian army positions in Ramouseh but the defense line held. The attack was repelled. Additional break-out attacks by the 2-3,000 fighters inside the besieged al-Qaeda controlled areas in east-Aleppo city failed too. Al-Qaeda never managed to brake the siege of the eastern areas and to thereby cut off the government held, densely occupied western areas from their supply route south towards Damascus.

Local fighting still continues on the front lines but the government positions seem secured and the attacking force is slowly grind down.

Source

[PS_RalphW]

Classic UK cockup

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... ent-troops

You could read all sorts of tin hattery into this. I read it as drones are not yet intelligent enough to tell today's ally from yesterday's foe.

But we have always been at war with Oceana.