UndercoverElephant wrote:
Nonsense. Labour is absolutely ready for an election. They've been agitating for an election for months. If they thought they would win it, they'd call a VonC on Monday.
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Difficult, parliament is in recess.
Since all countries have been encouraged to get into eye-watering debt to the scheming banks, it’s the money people who call the shots. Totally immoral, but the corporates use the money supply to dictate what policies are put in place. They don’t consider peoples needs in doing this, merely how much money the policies will make for the incredably rich. That means Johnson and the others will do as they are told, to the detriment to almost all of us.
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
Fact number 1: The law on the statute books, as we speak, is that the UK is leaving on 31st of October.
Fact number two: Statute can only be changed by other statute. Therefore, the only two ways Brexit can can be stopped from happening by default on October 31st will also need to be by statute in the form of either (a) MP's in parliament unilaterally voting to revoke A50 prior to October 31st or (b) MP's in parliament calling and winning a VoNC in the government and then holding an election and Remainers winning the election and then parliament voting to revoke A50 - again, all before the 31st October.
All previous prevaricative parliamentary votes that have happened in the last two years can be disregarded in my opinion. The reason being, things have come to a head and MP's are now going to have to pick a side fully and there will be no hiding from that.
I am going to predict that, when push comes to shove, the vast majority of Conservative MP's will not bring down their own party in a VoNC nor will they vote to revoke A50. The reason being they know full well that they would be personally committing political suicide in many cases. Nevertheless, there may be a dozen or so who are coming up to retirement who may be minded to fall on their swords.
We already know there are about 24 Labour MPs who have overtly stated they will not stand in the way of Brexit and will, if necessary, vote with the government in order to ensure it happens.
The above being the case, at the very least, the rebels in the Tory party are compensated for by the rebels in the Labour party. But, I would wager that. in fact, the Labour rebels will more than compensate.
Meanwhile Sinn Fein do not take part in the UK parliament and so can be disregarded.
I don't know enough about the independents and so am going to split them evenly between Leave and Remain.
So, given the above, I'm going to allocate MPs into the following camps
Leave
Conservative 300
Independent 8
Labour 24
DUP 10
total Leave = 342
Remain
Conservative 11
Labour 223
Independent 8
SNP 35
Lib Dem 12
TIGC 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
Total Remain = 300
Leave wins by a majority of 42.
In short, unless a large number of Conservative MPs vote to bring their own government down and, in doing so, usher in a Labour government and lose their seats even in erstwhile "safe" Tory shires due to their treachery over Brexit, a VoNC or revocation of A50 is not going top happen.
Additionally, even if we make the assumption that all independents are Remainers and that Labour and Tory rebels equally balance each other out, that would still only to a dead heat of 321 each. So, still no decisive Remain victory.
In other words, all that is required for Brexit to get over the line is for 1 more Labour rebel than there are Tory rebels in the opposite direction or for one independent to vote for the Leave side.
Little John wrote:
In short, unless a large number of Conservative MPs vote to bring their own government down and, in doing so, usher in a Labour government and lose their seats even in erstwhile "safe" Tory shires due to their treachery over Brexit, a VoNC or revocation of A50 is not going top happen.
I don't understand how you reached this conclusion. It needs 2 tory MPs, and no more. You are confusing the number of Labour MPs who will vote for no deal and the number who will support the tories in a VonC. These are very different things. It is just possibly Kate Hoey might support the government in a VonC, but I'd be astonished if any other Labour MPs do.
Lots of astonishing things have happened both here and across the wrold over the last few years and so if you use a lack of astonishment as a metric for deciding on the plausibility of any given outcome, you are likely to be disappointed on a fairly regular basis in the current climate.
As for your argument that no Labour MP would refrain from voting down the government in a VoNC, if Labour MP's are seen to doing so under circumstances that are transparently part of an attempt to thwart Brexit, you can be certain that at least some of those 24 (or is it 41 now?) Labour rebels will not vote the government down.
Every thing of any importance that happens in parliament between now and 31st of October is about Brexit and Brexit only. Everything is connected to it. The electorate know it and so do the MP's. But, more importantly, the MP's know the public knows. It is not now possible to pretend they are separate as you have just done.
Labour MPs are not going support the tories in a VonC. It just isn't going to happen.
However, something equally unlikely may happen. There is talk of Johnson establishing a £2bn fund to help struggling English towns, and considerable investment in the NHS. These aren't tory policies. They are Labour policies. It looks like Johnson may have decided that if he commits to brexit, including no deal, that tory leavers will vote for him even if he also commits to spending on public services which would normally make tories vomit. Where else do they have to go? No point in them voting for Farage if this is going to split the leave vote and result in another remain parliament.
This could win Johnson an election. It is the one thing the Labour Party was absolutely not expecting. Even I might vote tory in these circumstances if the tory manifesto involves commitments on public spending you would not find in a normal tory manifesto. He's going to try to buy the votes of Labour leavers, calculating that tory leavers will accept this as the price of brexit.
I'm not sure what Corbyn will do to respond, although it vindicates his "wait and see" approach.
UndercoverElephant wrote:Labour MPs are not going support the tories in a VonC. It just isn't going to happen....
Would that be similar to potentially 41 Labour rebel MPs defying the Labour whip in getting Brexit over the line not happening as well?
You are still confusing votes about brexit and votes about triggering a general election. They are two very different things. Labour-supporting leave voters unambiguously want their MPs to get brexit through, including if that means no deal. A vote of no confidence is a different ballgame, even if it has implications for brexit.
Although the ground is shifting on that too, if Johnson actually wants the VonC to succeed and is indicating he will commit to increase public spending in a manifesto. This isn't 3D chess. It is 4D poker.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 27 Jul 2019, 00:16, edited 1 time in total.
UndercoverElephant wrote:Even I might vote tory in these circumstances if the tory manifesto involves commitments on public spending you would not find in a normal tory manifesto. He's going to try to buy the votes of Labour leavers, calculating that tory leavers will accept this as the price of brexit.
Would you trust/believe him? He may not have any money to make good on such commitments even if he wanted to.... Didn't you say defeating the Tories was your top priority?
And LJ suggesting dozens of Labour MPs could support this Tory led government in a VonC is for the birds!
If it was a manifesto pledge? Yes. "Aspirations", no. It would be quite something for a tory manifesto to include pledges to increase public spending.
He may not have any money to make good on such commitments even if he wanted to....
Everybody now knows the magic money tree is very real.
Didn't you say defeating the Tories was your top priority?
Many times. But that was on the assumption that tories would prioritise tax cuts for the rich over investment in public services. Which was Johnson's big idea when he wanted to win the tory leadership. Seems he has had a rethink.
Manifesto commitments are quite important, even for habitual liars.
And LJ suggesting dozens of Labour MPs could support this Tory led government in a VonC is for the birds!
Indeed. Not even John Mann is going to do that. Kate Hoey is in category of her own though.
Boris poll surge: Tories gain ten points after new PM vows to deliver Brexit on October 31
MR JOHNSON becoming Prime Minister has boosted Conservative Party popularity by ten points according to a shock new opinion poll, which shows he could defeat the Labour opposition in a General Election....
Boris Johnson is to launch the biggest advertising campaign since the Second World War to get Britain ready for no-deal with an unprecedented marketing blitz on billboards, radio and television.
Tens of millions of pounds will be spent on what will become the biggest public information campaign since the end of the war over the next three months, Government sources said. The news came as the Government goes into overdrive to prepare for a no-deal exit with daily briefings on progress in the Cobra briefing room normally reserved for coordinating responses to national emergencies.
Sajid Javid, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, will set out plans this week - on Tuesday or Wednesday - for an extra £1billion of spending on no deal preparations. Part of this will be up to £100million on the public information campaign, dwarfing the lacklustre radio and internet campaign run by the Government before the March 29 Brexit deadline this year.
The new campaign, which could include a leaflet delivered to every home in the country, will be much bigger than the 'Tell Sid' bid to encourage the public to buy shares at the privatisation of British Gas and 'Aids - Don't Die of Ignorance' TV, radio and newspaper awareness campaigns in the 1980s.
One Treasury source said: "I can't imagine there has been a bigger 'comms' campaign than this since the War. It is a pretty huge thing for a 'comms' campaign."
Ministers said the extra spending was part of a " real step up in activity" on no deal planning. Rishi Sunak, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, said: "We are turbo charging preparations for no deal and that is now the government’s number one priority."
The objective, he said, was to force Brussels negotiators to remove the Northern Irish backstop from the EU Withdrawal Agreement to allow the UK to leave with a deal by Oct 31.
He told Sophy Ridge on Sunday on Sky News: "We want to remove this undemocratic backstop from the existing agreement but if the EU is not willing to talk about that then it’s right that we prepare properly with conviction."
Mr Johnson's Cabinet met yesterday by phone for an hour starting at 11.30am to approve three new committees that are intended to turbocharge preparations for leaving the EU without a deal by October 31.
The three committees are intended to bring to an end the delay which beset the committees established under Theresa May to tackle Brexit, Mr Johnson said.
A Number 10 source said Mr Johnson "wanted to convey that he wished to avoid committees of the past which had not moved quickly enough, did not result in actions or accountability and were often undermined by parallel structures.
"[The] Cabinet agreed that this would send a clear message about the Government’s plans to deliver Brexit."
Mr Johnson and Michael Gove, the Chancellor to the Duchy of Lancaster, will convene a 'war Cabinet' of just six ministers including Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay and Chancellor Sajid Javid to monitor progress.
This "Exit Strategy Committee" will meet twice weekly on Mondays and Thursdays.
Mr Gove will also chair - with Mr Sunak - a separate daily meeting in the Cobra room to monitor progress and "kick important issues" to Mr Johnson where necessary.
The Cabinet was told that "live actions, deadlines and accountability [will] be on the screens of Cobr at every meeting and minutes will be circulated immediately after" from this "Daily Operations Committee".
Mr Johnson will also chair an "Exit Strategy Committee" which will meet regularly, will have a broad remit and will be "particularly focused on Britain’s future relationships around the world".
The membership of all three committees is due to be published later today (Monday). One Number 10 source said that holding "the daily meetings show that we are serious about no deal."
The source said that people should not get carried away by suggesting that Cobra had been "convened" to tackle a crisis.
The room - officially known as Cabinet Office Briefing Room A - was the most convenient because of the screens and IT available there.
The source added: "The Cabinet agreed there is a very clear message that we are serious about what we are doing and getting ready to leave on Oct 31."
Meanwhile Mr Johnson's ministerial reshuffle after replacing Mrs May as Prime Minister continued on Sunday with the appointment of Amanda Milling, Jeremy Quin and Stuart Andrew to the Government whips office.
