Ukraine Watch...

[BritDownUnder]

Given Russia's inability to keep to treaties (and the for those who give Minsk accords and NATO expansion promises to Russia in the 1990s some credence the US also) then 3) and 4) are exactly the same.

In my mind 4) is a good result as it results in Russia being busy in Ukraine and less ability for mischief elsewhere, desperate for money and oil price lower than otherwise and keeps the West abreast of any arms technologies that Russia and China may have.

[Ralphw2]

no sign of the US relenting on ;ong range missiles into Russia. Russia withdrew its glide bomb fleet of bombers out of range of stormshadow anyway. ALso most of its navy further out of range of Ukrainian missiles and drones as well

Russia has begun a counter attack in Kursk, successfully relieving the siege of the blown river bridges, but Ukraine simultaneously started a new attack into the enclave from the southern border. Situation remains volatile. Attack towards Povrosk remains stalled, although Russia continues to make incremental gains elsewhere.

Rumours that new Ukrainian anti-drone drones are seriously impacting on the Russian fleet of spotter drones.
Ukriane hit a major ammo dump north west of Moscow with drones, which went bang with an impressive mushroom cloud that registered on the RIchter scale. Some rumours that the newly imported North Korean missiles were stored there.

Putin decreed that the military will expand by another 180000 troops to over 1.5M. That does not answer the question of where these extra troops will come from. At current level of wastage, that will offset 5 - 6 months of Russian losses. Rumours that the current Russian offensive is seriously short of cannon fodder troops for the front line assaults again.

Western opinion is that Russia has at most 18 months of men, weapons and money left to win this war. Putin is clearly praying for a Trump re-election. Of course, UKraine also has a finite supply of men and women.

[UndercoverElephant]

Putin is clearly praying for a Trump re-election.

I'd sooner bet that Trump will be dead before the election than President after it.

[Ralphw2]

Putin is clearly praying for a Trump re-election.

I'd sooner bet that Trump will be dead before the election than President after it.

If the next shooter fails to miss, I fear that Vance would be elected and that would be a bigger disaster than an Trump re-election.

[Ralphw2]

The ammo explosion in Russia was probably very significant. It was Russia's newest and a very large store, over 100 "nuclear bomb proof". Bunkers capacity total 30 000 tons. I lt was a major logistics hub for the Ukraine war and satellite photos showed it was in constant use, with blmost bunker doors open and large amounts of ammo lying around outside each bunker. It was probably hit by a single small aircraft sized drone and the entire store went boom. The very nearby town probably suffered significant civilian casualties it will be interesting to see more satellite photos after the fires burn out.

Which just shows you can't bomb proof stupid.

[clv101]

Indeed! The scale of this destination might as well have been a tactical nuke.

[BritDownUnder]

A very good earthquake-sized asymmetric attack.

One can only hope that other Russian arms dumps are being sized up by Western and Ukrainian intelligence services.