Current Oil Price

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 21 Nov 2007, 09:54

New all time WTI high is $99.29

Currently we're at $98.66

Post by **clv101** » 21 Nov 2007, 09:56

The USD Index has hit a new low, it's never been eaiser for oil to be worth $100.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=d12

peaky2 · Post by **peaky2** » 21 Nov 2007, 10:11

Hmmm - maybe the dollar is so low because the oil supply situation is so tight that it's damaging confidence. Just a thought. It's all connected ...

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 21 Nov 2007, 12:54

peaky2 wrote:Hmmm - maybe the dollar is so low because the oil supply situation is so tight that it's damaging confidence. Just a thought. It's all connected ...

Expensive energy causes economic demand to slow, causes US government to increase money supply to compensate, causes inflation and dollar weakness. So, yes.

Then a weakening dollar causes big investors to look for other instruments to put their cash. Oil can go up despite US economic weakness while all the demand is coming out of China and India, so oil looks like a good bet. As does gold in its traditional hedge against inflation role. So oil goes up.

Rinse, repeat, until the US economy gets stronger in terms of 'real stuff' (eg higher exports, lower imports - the usual response to a weaker currency).

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 21 Nov 2007, 13:03

Tess wrote:
peaky2 wrote:Rinse, repeat, until the US economy gets stronger in terms of 'real stuff' (eg higher exports, lower imports - the usual response to a weaker currency).
The SuddenDebt blog has a good post on this topic today:

http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/

Exporting Our Way Out of Trouble?

...

Our trade deficit, as it stands today, is structural: it is caused by our decision to import from China instead of manufacturing at home (deficit: 2.1% of GDP) and relying on oil imports (increased deficit: 1.6% of GDP). Adding together the two effects (3.7% of GDP) we see that they account for 75% of our current trade deficit. Unless we do something about those two structural factors first, we cannot possibly hope to export our way out of domestic economic troubles.

I.e. don't hold your breath for a US economic revival. And I guess that the same applies to good old HMS UK....

Peter.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 21 Nov 2007, 13:27

Very good article BP, thanks for posting it.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 21 Nov 2007, 15:40

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 1.1 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 313.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week, and are below the lower end of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components rose slightly during this period. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels, but are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories declined 0.4 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 6.9 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.

Expectations were for a smallish crude stock rise.

Initial price response is up, a spike above $100 seems likely, but I'm not
sure it will hold to close of trading.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 21 Nov 2007, 15:41

Well, we got a crude draw of 1.1mbbls and a distillate draw of 2.4mbbls, both bullish. Alas the market had sold off before the stats quite heavily and so the upward spike only took us back to $98.50 before selling off again... now at $98.

Could still see $100 today but it'll be hard work.

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 21 Nov 2007, 21:57

They're a bunch of teases stringing us along, aren't they

?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 21 Nov 2007, 22:48

RenewableCandy wrote:They're a bunch of teases stringing us along, aren't they ?

It will only make the 'climax' more explosive when we finally get there . . .

oilslick · Post by **oilslick** » 21 Nov 2007, 22:49

If they carry on at this rate a cup of coffee will be $100 first - get on with it Tess

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 22 Nov 2007, 10:11

Andy Hunt wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:They're a bunch of teases stringing us along, aren't they ?
It will only make the 'climax' more explosive when we finally get there . . .

And then we can roll over and go back to sleep.

Until the next nice round number looms up on the horizon. What will it be? $110 doesn't sound very sexy really, does it? I think it'll take $150 to get us all this excited again.

RogerCO · Post by **RogerCO** » 22 Nov 2007, 11:14

Erik wrote:Until the next nice round number looms up on the horizon. What will it be? $110 doesn't sound very sexy really, does it? I think it'll take $150 to get us all this excited again.

Perhaps we should open the sweepstake on the date for $1000 per barrel. Mind you that might only be 200Euro, so don't get to excited. I pitch Dec 3rd 2011.

oilslick · Post by **oilslick** » 22 Nov 2007, 11:37

Erik wrote:
Andy Hunt wrote:
RenewableCandy wrote:They're a bunch of teases stringing us along, aren't they ?
It will only make the 'climax' more explosive when we finally get there . . .
And then we can roll over and go back to sleep.

Until the next nice round number looms up on the horizon. What will it be? $110 doesn't sound very sexy really, does it? I think it'll take $150 to get us all this excited again.

I think you've been using the wrong oil:
http://www.cduniverse.com/productinfo.a ... =634082730

And it's over $1000 a barrel!

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 22 Nov 2007, 12:20

oilslick wrote:And it's over $1000 a barrel!

Gosh, almost as dear as O'Briens bottled water.