Brexit process

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 11 Jul 2019, 14:17

You could put your thoughts on various aspects of policy directly into the horses mouth/arse (select where you think is closest to the brain) if you go. I have always found that sitting near the front in the middle and sticking my hand up early is the best way of getting a point in.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 11 Jul 2019, 14:20

Questions have to be emailed in advance.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 11 Jul 2019, 14:21

So, at precisely the time that Corbyn has capitulated to the neo-lib Remainers in the party on the basis of the bullshit that no-one believes that he needs to do this in order to strengthen both his and Labour's position with the electorate - is precisely the time the antisemitism smears are now going into overdrive aided and abetted by a propaganda hit job from BBC's Panorama.

Why are these two things co-occurring?

Because Corbyn's latest pivot toward remain has weakened him - not strengthened him - sufficiently that he can now be finished off with lies about antisemitism.

The truth is, were it not for the fact Corbyn has utterly failed as a leader by betraying Labour's heartlands over Brexit, these smears would fall off him like water off a duck's back as they did in the early days of his tenure.

The fact they are sticking more now is due to a lot of people, having previously supported him, now deserting him because of his betrayal of the working class of this country.

I say all of this because, come election time, when Labour gets completely hammered, there will be the usual suspects from different camps in the Labour party claiming that either (a) the labour party is antisemitic under his leadership and that is why it was hammered and he must be replaced or (b) labour only lost the election due to the antisemitism smears or, even more laughably, (c) Labour was not "Remain" enough. Though, to be fair, they would be hammered less than what they are going to be for their prevarications. But, they would still be hammered.

All of these claims will be false.

The reason labour will be stuffed at the next election is the same reason that any old smear is now damaging him. It's because Labour voters in the 7 out of 10 Labour constituencies who voted to Leave that Labour needs to win that election don't trust it anymore on Brexit and so are no longer prepared to stand by Corbyn in his hour of need.

It's over.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Jul 2019, 14:49

Little John wrote:So, at precisely the time that Corbyn has capitulated to the neo-lib Remainers in the party on the basis of the bullshit that no-one believes that he needs to do this in order to strengthen both his and Labour's position with the electorate - is precisely the time the antisemitism smears are now going into overdrive aided and abetted by a propaganda hit job from BBC's Panorama.

Why are these two things co-occurring?

Because Corbyn's latest pivot toward remain has weakened him - not strengthened him - sufficiently that he can now be finished off with lies about antisemitism.

The smears have gone into overdrive precisely because the tories are scared he might win an imminent election.

The reason labour will be stuffed at the next election

You seriously believe Johnson can win an election on a no deal ticket?

How?

Johnson can't win. There aren't enough no deal tories to deliver a majority. And if Johnson doesn't win, Corbyn will. Nobody else can.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 11 Jul 2019, 15:47

Vortex2 wrote:Questions have to be emailed in advance.

That puts a damper on things then.

Probably not worth going.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 11 Jul 2019, 15:54

If Johnson could do a deal with Farage so that BXP didn't stand in Tory seats where the candidate stood for a No Deal there could be a successful tory BXP coalition to deliver a no deal Brexit.

I know that Farage has said that he wouldn't do a deal but I think he is enough a politician to go for a back room deal which would give him the Brexit that he wants. He might even get the Ambassadorship in the US out of it.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 11 Jul 2019, 17:40

kenneal - lagger wrote:If Johnson could do a deal with Farage so that BXP didn't stand in Tory seats where the candidate stood for a No Deal there could be a successful tory BXP coalition to deliver a no deal Brexit.

I very much doubt it. Any deal whereby the BXP help the tories to win seats would result in most non-tory leavers refusing to vote for BXP. It would ensure the BXP don't win any seats, making it pointless.

I know that Farage has said that he wouldn't do a deal but I think he is enough a politician to go for a back room deal which would give him the Brexit that he wants. He might even get the Ambassadorship in the US out of it.

His own party won't accept that. The Brexit Party is not merely the anti-EU wing of the tory party. It also contains people like George Galloway.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 12 Jul 2019, 16:20

Latest Survation opinion poll has Labour way ahead on 29%, giving them nearly 300 seats and a choice of coalition partners. The last yougov poll gave them 17%...

Post by **adam2** » 12 Jul 2019, 16:49

PS_RalphW wrote:Latest Survation opinion poll has Labour way ahead on 29%, giving them nearly 300 seats and a choice of coalition partners. The last yougov poll gave them 17%...

I rather doubt that public opinion has shifted that much, suggesting that one poll is inaccurate. Possibly both.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Jul 2019, 17:03

adam2 wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:Latest Survation opinion poll has Labour way ahead on 29%, giving them nearly 300 seats and a choice of coalition partners. The last yougov poll gave them 17%...
I rather doubt that public opinion has shifted that much, suggesting that one poll is inaccurate. Possibly both.

Yougov has recently been consistently underestimating Labour's position compared to other polling companies. Doesn't mean it is wrong, of course.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Jul 2019, 17:50

Some folks still don't get what is happening here, or what is coming.

Brexit is just one part of it. But, it has become totemic.

https://www.facebook.com/brian.tough.75 ... 28346/?t=1

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Jul 2019, 18:38

Nobody actually knows what is coming...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 12 Jul 2019, 20:04

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... reddit.com

Ireland considering port checks on whole island in no-deal Brexit

I still don't believe no deal will happen, but if it does, I am certain the customs border will end up in the Celtic Sea, not the Irish Sea and not between NI and RoI.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 12 Jul 2019, 21:33

UndercoverElephant wrote:Nobody actually knows what is coming...

Whatever it is, it is not gong to be some triangulated version of BAU.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 12 Jul 2019, 23:18

Went to hustings tonight.

Discovered one guy - my favourite initially - is a demagogue.

Surprisingly the other was very impressive so he will get my vote.

Pointless no doubt as the other guy is almost sure to win.

We are doomed.