Brexit process

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2019, 17:14

Beria:

â€¢The Daily Telegraph reports this morning that there are talks going on about a Brexit-delivery pact between the Conservatives and the Brexit Party;

I am fascinated by this. It would make sense, if I could figure out how it would actually work. Tell me what happens in Hastings. What does Johnson do about his anti-no-deal candidates? The whole point of the Brexit Party is that it is not contaminated with people like Amber Rudd, but short of a massive purge, I don't see how Johnson can solve this problem.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 17 Jun 2019, 17:26

UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK
This graph says it all. Four party politics. 6 if you include greens and SNP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... ection.svg#

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election

And what those graphs show is that Labour are as f***ed as the Tories.

This is what happens when you F--k with democracy

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 17 Jun 2019, 18:36

Recently implemented 1922 threshold rules could mean Johnson is coronated tomorrow. The new rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Johnson fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM de facto without the requirement to go to a member vote.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 17 Jun 2019, 19:08

That'll be disappointing. I was hoping that things would drag out a little longer so that we are in limbo for as long as possible meaning that there is less time for parliament to get its act together and stop Brexit / Johnson has as little time as possible to cock up a no-deal Brexit / there isn't time to organise a general election before we come out of the EU automatically with a no-deal Brexit.

I'll just have to keep my fingers crossed!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2019, 21:02

Little John wrote:And what those graphs show is that Labour are as f***ed as the Tories.

No it doesn't. On those figures, Corbyn still ends up in Downing Street.

I am not sure Labour even want a majority if there's snap election. If they were to win an overall majority, they'd be solely responsible for sorting out the brexit mess. If instead they are the largest party and need the Libdems and/or SNP to get a majority then they can just hold a second referendum and blame somebody else if remain wins.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 17 Jun 2019, 21:06

UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK
This graph says it all. Four party politics. 6 if you include greens and SNP.

first link

second link

Could you use the URL button for the links so all the text on the page does not get compressed? Iâ€™ll delete this post then.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2019, 21:10

woodburner wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:Latest yougov poll shows some rollback on the Brexit and LD gains and a very hung parliament where the only 2 party coalition possible would be Labour and Brexit party. (according to flavible seat calculator).

On these numbers 2 party democracy is over in the UK
This graph says it all. Four party politics. 6 if you include greens and SNP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... ection.svg#

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_p ... l_election
Could you use the URL button for the links so all the text on the page does not get compressed? Iâ€™ll delete this post then.

I tried, but it doesn't seem to work.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 17 Jun 2019, 21:18

I edited my post and it workd ok. Quote my post and edit it to put in your post. Should be ok.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 17 Jun 2019, 21:41

Lord Beria3 wrote:Will be interesting to see if boris gets elected and if so some of the BP voters return to the Tory fold.

Only if tory brexiters aren't as smart as you give them credit for. I'm sure they can see straight through Boris and his flim-flam whatever helps him the most positions.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 17 Jun 2019, 21:49

https://order-order.com/2019/06/17/rory ... h2yUGwCJUA

Boris Johnson could become Prime Minister tomorrow, thanks to Rory Stewart, obviating the need to go to any public hustings. The 1922 Committeeâ€™s new threshold rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Boris fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM. There is a real (if small) chance that due to Roryâ€™s disruption, Hunt and Gove could slip back a little and other candidates not gain enough new supporters for an accidental coronation to happenâ€¦

Interesting.

Still, suspect Hunt should get past the 33 mark at least.

Potemkin Villager · Post by **Potemkin Villager** » 17 Jun 2019, 22:14

UndercoverElephant wrote:
...... If they were to win an overall majority, they'd be solely responsible for sorting out the brexit mess. If instead they are the largest party and need the Libdems and/or SNP to get a majority then they can just hold a second referendum and blame somebody else if remain wins.

UE such cynicism!

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2019, 23:14

Lord Beria3 wrote:https://order-order.com/2019/06/17/rory ... h2yUGwCJUA

Boris Johnson could become Prime Minister tomorrow, thanks to Rory Stewart, obviating the need to go to any public hustings. The 1922 Committeeâ€™s new threshold rules mean that any candidate who gets fewer than 33 votes tomorrow is automatically eliminated from the contest, meaning if all but Boris fail to meet the threshold, he becomes PM. There is a real (if small) chance that due to Roryâ€™s disruption, Hunt and Gove could slip back a little and other candidates not gain enough new supporters for an accidental coronation to happenâ€¦
Interesting.

Still, suspect Hunt should get past the 33 mark at least.

Did you watch Newsnight? It's all about Stewart now. There's an organised campaign to attempt to knock him out tomorrow, because Gove and Johnson supporters think he's got a chance of winning if he builds up any more momentum. He's wrong-footed the lot of them, because they were all competing with each other to promise undeliverables and none of them were expecting to compete with somebody who's gone for telling it straight.

Stewart could win this. The bookies have him in the clear as second favourite now.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 17 Jun 2019, 23:16

"Telling it straight"?

You are funny UE.

So, the mainstream media is attacking Johnson full on at precisely the same time Stewart is being given massive, largely benign, airtime.

They clearly think we are all stupid.

It's pathetic.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2019, 23:34

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... hnson.html

Now Theresa Mayâ€™s deputy David Lidington backs Rory Stewart as the former wildcard Tory leadership candidate gets late surge of support from MPs who want to see Boris Johnson 'knocked down a peg or two'

If Stewart makes the last two, this could be very interesting indeed. He could change the contest away from being directly about brexit, into something about competence and honesty. To win, he needs to convince the membership that Johnson can't deliver, and this is not such an impossible task if Stewart is unafraid of speaking unwelcome truths.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 17 Jun 2019, 23:42

Little John wrote:"Telling it straight"?

You are funny UE.

So, the mainstream media is attacking Johnson full on at precisely the same time Stewart is being given massive, largely benign, airtime.

They clearly think we are all stupid.

It's pathetic.

Johnson is only being given less airtime because he's hiding from the media. And yes, Rory Stewart has decided to employ a completely unexpected tactic of being an honest politician. It's actually rather clever. I am as cynical as it is possible to be about politicians, and I think Stewart is being intentionally as straight as possible. His position is very simple: parliament won't allow no deal to happen, and (therefore) the EU won't change the backstop. I think he honestly believes those two things, I think he's right on both counts and I think it is possible that after a month of him bashing Johnson over the head with this, he could win.

I also think it is possible that Stewart could get May's deal through with Labour votes (if Labour goes full remain at the party conference), while Johnson could fail to deliver brexit at all by losing to Corbyn in an election.