“There was zero visibility outside,” he wrote on Instagram. “It was just plain survival. A kilometre across a field. A group of blind cats led by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is littered with our corpses.”
Some bluff about multiple Russian aeroplanes being shot down on the same morning all this is announced - i think most can see through the propaganda now.
Do you also believe Alexei Navalny was randomly taken ill on a walk and wasn't murdered by Putin's thugs?
In the words of Motorhead - he was "killed by death".
Pity about Avdiivka but at least there was no surrender and prisoners taken and the place looks a bit knocked about. Not exactly waiting to be settled by willing Russian settlers ready to farm the black soils and mine the riches.
Last edited by BritDownUnder on 18 Feb 2024, 19:12, edited 1 time in total.
Russian Telegram reports one plane shot down. Ukraine reports 4 distress beacons from downed Russian pilots, suggesting at least 2 shot down. Ukraine claims 3. Ukraine has downed more than 3 before in one day, presumably by risking a Patriot battery deployed close to the front line, possibly to help cover the retreat from Avdiivka. The loss of US support is clearly hurting the Ukrainian defence. At least one Patriot system has been hit and damaged by Russia.
What is not going to happen is that Ukraine and/or its western backers decide that the position is a stalemate, and agree to let Russia officially keep Crimea and its gains in the south, and for relationships between Russia and western nations to become "normal" (relatively) once more. The reason this cannot and will not happen is because it does not end the conflict. Both sides would simply use the peace to re-arm in anticipation of future conflict, which would be inevitable.
It is perfectly possible that a stalemate does develop, in which case we will end up with a frozen conflict with no renormalisation of relations, such as exists in the case of North Korea. Ukraine would end up joining both NATO and the EU and everybody would then wait for Putin to die and see what happens next in Russia (which is unpredictable). This situation would be unstable. The UN security council would be fatally and permanently compromised, with no obvious means of resolution.
I still think it is more likely that Ukraine can militarily break through in the south, forcing the Russians out of Crimea, which would presumably be the end of Putin.
Either way Ukraine ends up in NATO and the EU.
Just how well are these predictions shaping up UE?
Default0ptions wrote: ↑19 Nov 2023, 22:55
The last Ukrainians are now on the front line.
This comment smacks of absolute desperation. It has got nothing to do with reality.
“after nearly two years of bloody fighting, and with Ukraine once again in need of fresh troops to fend off a new Russian push, military leaders can no longer rely solely on enthusiasm. More men are avoiding military service, while calls to demobilize exhausted frontline soldiers have grown.”
Default0ptions wrote: ↑19 Feb 2024, 22:47
Well - my views seem to be holding up pretty well UE.
Doesn't look like much has changed to me. The war remains in a stalemate. Neither side is able to make significant gains, neither side looks like it is going to collapse any time soon.
If Trump wins and does what he's threatening to do then it might change things, but I have no idea whether he will actually win or whether he will be permitted to trash NATO if he does. I guess we'll all have to wait and see. What I am certain of is that you have no better idea what is going to happen than anybody else does.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 19 Feb 2024, 23:01, edited 1 time in total.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
This is mind-numbingly tedious. If you want to debate the situation in Ukraine then do so. All you are apparently interested in doing is trying to get me to admit I've been wrong about everything and that your deluded view of this war is anything other than delusion. The only firm prediction I have ever made is that the west is not going to let Putin succeed in his war aims in Ukraine, which was the control of the entire country and/or permanently preventing Ukraine from joining NATO. I am still making this prediction, and I am still qualifying it with "but I do not have a crystal ball."
If you continue to troll me I will permanently stop responding to your posts.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Default0ptions wrote: ↑19 Feb 2024, 23:14
Do you deny posting this too:
“I still think it is more likely that Ukraine can militarily break through in the south, forcing the Russians out of Crimea“
I think I may have suggested that this was very unlikely
Who gives a crap? At some point last year I offered an opinion about what I thought was likely, and it didn't happen. So f***ing what? Why on Earth do you think this is remotely interesting? Why are you obsessed with nitpicking about posts I made 18 months ago?
I think it is likely that the temperature won't drop below freezing again this winter. If I'm wrong about that too, will you come and try to tell me off for saying I think it was likely? This is infantile. Nobody wants to read it. This is your last warning: if you wish me to acknowledge your posts in future, stop trolling me.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 19 Feb 2024, 23:30, edited 1 time in total.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
I have deleted several posts that merely insulted other members and added nothing to informed debate.
Please avoid insults, further deletions are likely.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
adam2 wrote: ↑19 Feb 2024, 23:30I have deleted several posts that merely insulted other members and added nothing to informed debate.
Please avoid insults, further deletions are likely.
I'm quite happy for you to delete everything back to your last post. None of it is remotely interesting to read.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Looks like this one will drag on a bit more. Remember what General Patton said. You don't win the war by dying for your country. You win the war by making the other SOAB die for his. NATO needs to focus on this.
I see a few more Russian planes claimed shot down. Also some interesting shenanigans involving Ecuador selling some Russian supplied 'scrap metal' to the US which was then sold on or donated to Ukraine.
BritDownUnder wrote: ↑20 Feb 2024, 07:14
NATO needs to focus on this.
Yes. But there is a wild card involved, by the name of Donald Trump. Trump appears to believe Europe should be footing the bill for its own defence, instead of relying on the US, and is giving the distinct impression that he'd like to NATO wound up entirely. Should he return to the Presidency then the mere fact that you've got somebody in the Whitehouse who is apparently not committed to NATO has the potential to destabilise the entire global security outlook, not just the situation in Ukraine. The whole point in NATO is that it is an alliance of democratic states designed to keep the western world free from authoritarian psychopaths like Putin. It has got to be believable. Putin has to know that NATO means 100% business.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
If Trump does try and dismantle NATO or just unilaterally pull the US out of NATO I expect he'll quickly find out about the limits of presidential power. The US military industrial complex, the generals, the Pentagon, the contractors are, in totality, likely more powerful than the office of the president and aren't going to accept a wing clipping without a fight. Trump might be left with the awkward task of withdrawing from NATO but somehow increasing defence spending - something that will just look a bit daft and inefficient. Despite all the moaning about half of NATO not meeting their 2% commitment - it's still advantageous to have those collaborations than not.
clv101 wrote: ↑20 Feb 2024, 10:56
If Trump does try and dismantle NATO or just unilaterally pull the US out of NATO I expect he'll quickly find out about the limits of presidential power.
He has a track record of testing those limits, and at the moment it is looking like he might get away with breaching them in worrying ways. Why is he even being allowed to stand? Looks to me like the only reason is that the Supreme Court is loaded with conservative judges who (paradoxically) do not seem to be very conservative in their interpretation of US law and constitution. But maybe in this case it wouldn't be the courts who will step up to limit his power, as you say. For the US to pull the plug on NATO at this moment in time would be astonishingly short-sighted.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
