Brexit process

[Lord Beria3]

Looks like Greer call could come true.

If labour become official remain party they could be wiped out in the Midlands, north and Wales.

They would bring back some of the Green and lib dem defectors but would that be enough?

Sunderland went 52 per cent to the Brexit party last night. Says it all.

[cubes]

I'd say that some voters who went for the brexit party in the EU elections will go back to their "traditional" party (same with libdems votes) for a general election. The question would be how many? Personally I'd say a quarter or less but enough to significantly reduce the expected MPs for a brexit party.

[kenneal - lagger]

If I voted Brexit at a general election here in West Berkshire it would probably let the Libdems in which is the opposite of what I would want so I'll continue to vote Conservative because my MP although a Remainer accepts the Referendum vote. He is against a no deal vote though because local businesses have nobbled him. There was quite a strong majority locally for the Brexit Party.

[kenneal - lagger]

One thing which I thought significant was that the SNP's massive vote in Scotland doubled their share of the vote nationally from 2% to 4%, about the same as Change UK got and they were considered also rans.

[Lord Beria3]

Eurointelligence take...

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html

The rising chances of a no-deal Brexit

Last night's election will shape the future of Brexit in profound ways. It strengthens Boris Johnson's position as a candidate for the Tory leadership. Johnson has pledged to take Britain out of the EU in October, deal or no deal. It is very clear that another failure to deliver Brexit could threaten the Conservative Party to the core. Nigel Farage's Brexit Party last night won in 9 out of the 10 regions declared so far, with an average vote share of 32% as of this morning.

We also expect that Labour's very poor result could lead to renewed discussions about the party's Brexit strategy. Jeremy Corbyn indicated that he is now ready to support a second referendum, after having come third in the elections to the pro-Remain LibDems. As the Tories move further towards a no-deal Brexit, we expect Labour to shift, but the party will remain split. Our main take-away from these elections is that the Leave vote is galvanised and the Remain vote remains split.

But, despite Labour's pending shift, the risk of a no-deal Brexit is very large and still rising. Over the weekend there have been discussions on whether Johnson's strategy to deliver a no-deal Brexit, if needed, could be frustrated. MPs are beginning to realise that they don't have many options. The only effective one would be the nuclear option - a no-confidence vote triggering new elections - but it is far from clear that such a strategy can succeed. The eleven MPs from Change UK, a party that failed to attract much support in the European elections, are unlikely to support a no-confidence vote as the ensuing elections would result in all of them losing their seats. We are also sceptical of the threats from Tory MPs to leave the party and vote against their own government in a no-confidence vote. That may be true for at most a handful MPs, who would be ready to end their political careers.

The strategy of a no-confidence vote is potentially self-defeating. If Johnson or another hard-Brexiter like Dominic Raab were elected Tory leader, say in July, parliament would have to place a vote of no-confidence in September in order to have an election before the October deadline. If parliament misses that deadline a prime minister hell-bent on Brexit would have the power to deliver it without a deal.

The best-informed comment we have read on this subject is from Maddy Thimont Jack of the Institute of Government, who has argued that MPs have no powers to stop a prime minister intent on no-deal. The new PM could simply delay the next Queens' Speech until after October, which would deprive MPs of any opportunity to attach amendments. A backbench motion is possible but has no legal force. An emergency debate under standing order 24 is also possible, but has no legal force either. The only effective means is a vote of no-confidence, which faces the problems we discussed. Without the new PM's active co-operation, the UK crashes out on October 31.

Many UK journalists and Brexit commentators are still confused about the procedures set out by Article 50. The only reason Brexit got extended was that Theresa May wanted it to happen. It was her fateful decision to frame the Brexit debate as one between deal vs no-Brexit that lead to her tearful resignation speech on Friday. We have argued all along that a sure-fire way to deliver on the deal would have been to reduce the choice to one between deal and no-deal - after having compromised on some of Labour's demands.

Yesterday's vote confirms that the country continues to be split between Leavers and Remainers, with no clear trend. We notice John Curtice, the pollster, making the point that the pro-Remain and pro-Leave parties ended up with exactly the same voting share. A Labour Party switch from its current position to Remain would be a significant event, but the party will not be united as Northern MPs would stand to lose their seats. We see no chance of the House of Commons legislating for a second referendum in time for the October deadline.

[Little John]

The truth

https://www.rt.com/op-ed/460369-electio ... eu-brexit/

George Galloway

Desperate spin notwithstanding, the tsunami created by Nigel Farage’s six-week old Brexit Party may sweep away centuries-old parties which may now begin to split into their constituent parts.

But first a word about Farage. As a populist politician he is perfectly evolved. Cheerful, possessed of only the ordinary vices, personable, a communicator of genius. He is neither a philosopher nor an ideologue but gripped by one iron-clad obsession – British withdrawal from the European Union.

Single-mindedly pursued for a quarter of a century, this obsession has changed the course of history in a way not matched since Mr Churchill in the summer of 1940, Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair not excepted.

I have privately criticized him for prematurely departing the stage when Brexit was won after the 2016 referendum – but in fact his timing has been perfect. He gave the ruling elites, conspiring to wreck Brexit and defy the voters, just enough rope. And now they have hanged themselves.

The Duke of Wellington was still telling his Battle of Waterloo war stories in the British Parliament when the Tory Party was last this kind of void in British politics and that was only because they hadn’t then been formed. In getting on for 200 years the Tories have largely lorded over us and this week they polled in single digits. The departure of Theresa May has triggered a scramble of candidates for her job but it is bald men fighting over a comb.

The Labour Party as we know (and some of us loved) it, is dead. The coalition of Blair-Labour and Corbyn-Labour, of Remain members depending on Leave voters, of right-wing wreckers and liberals masquerading as leftists, identity-politics freaks and shop-stewards peace campaigners and blood-soaked warmongers, that Labour Party is dead.

Jeremy Corbyn’s 70th birthday party was surely spoiled as the results emerged on the day. His sincere, often skillful, walk down the middle of the road had ended as such walks always do – in his being hit by the traffic going both ways. I have known Corbyn for nigh 40 years and for decades had a close personal and political relationship with him. I have been his most stalwart defender on a daily basis in the British media for four long years – I could show you my scars. And so it pains me to say that this is the end of the line for him.

When his effectively number-two-man Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell – like so many an erstwhile Trotskyist – joined the betrayal of democracy cause in a tweet, the morning after the results, the writing was on the wall for Corbyn. McDonnell joined up with Labour’s disloyal deputy leader Tom Watson, leadership hopeful Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry, and Shadow Brexit Secretary Sir Keir Starmer QC, to demand an immediate volte-face by Corbyn in full unequivocal support for a new referendum. With Labour campaigning for remaining in the EU he signed Corbyn’s political death warrant.

Either the Labour leader complies and abandons the millions of working class Labour-inclined Brexit supporters all over the country (Farage won every region in England and Wales except London) but especially in Wales, the English midlands and the north – Britain’s rust-belt analogous to the swing states which propelled Trump to the White House – in which case the party will soon conclude they are best led by a younger woman with less baggage, or refuses and is overthrown by his members of parliament, 9/10ths of whom have been against him from the start.

In any case, gone is the elan, the campaigning brilliance, the new broom Corbyn represented just two years ago. Bled pale by compromise, appeasement of his enemies – the fifth column without whom he’d have already been in Downing St – and the relentless attrition of false accusations, fake news and sheer mendacity, Corbyn is now a dead man walking.

There is an imminent parliamentary by-election in Peterborough – one of the biggest Leave majority constituencies in the country – on D-Day, June 6. It will be the Longest Day for Britain’s long-established political class. Their day is done, the tide has turned. The road ahead, still difficult, only leads one way.

[Lord Beria3]

Superb LJ.

I wonder if Team Corbyn will try and resist a 2nd referendum call until the by-election and argue that the likely Brexit win is the main reason Labour cannot embrace a full on Remain stance.

Will be interesting to watch.

[UndercoverElephant]

The best-informed comment we have read on this subject is from Maddy Thimont Jack of the Institute of Government, who has argued that MPs have no powers to stop a prime minister intent on no-deal. The new PM could simply delay the next Queens' Speech until after October, which would deprive MPs of any opportunity to attach amendments. A backbench motion is possible but has no legal force. An emergency debate under standing order 24 is also possible, but has no legal force either. The only effective means is a vote of no-confidence, which faces the problems we discussed. Without the new PM's active co-operation, the UK crashes out on October 31.

This is such a dumb argument. The problem is that even if it is true (and it might well be) then the prime minister who pursues this strategy will end up in a position where they cannot govern the country at a critical moment. No deal isn't the end. If no deal happens then there will be a critical need for the government to actually be able to govern the country through the aftermath, but in this scenario parliament will be hell bent on getting rid of that government as soon as possible, and preventing it from doing anything at all.

There's no way the anti-no-dealers in the tory party are going to let this happen.

[Little John]

Okay, so cutting through the usual spin and bullshit in the MSM:

The four parties who promised to honour the Brexit result - deal or no deal - include Conservatives, Labour, Brexit party and UKIP which, when their votes are added together comes to 58.1%.

However, given Labour's recent prevarications, let's put their share of the vote to one side for the moment. Which leaves completely explicit Leave - deal or no deal - parties (Brexit, Conservatives and UKIP) at 44%.

Explicit Remain parties, meanwhile, (Lib Dems, SNP and Change UK come to 35.9%.

If we assume that there are roughly an equal amount of Labour voting Remainers and Leavers (who may be foolish enough to think the Labour party will honour the result of the referendum) then the Labour party's votes should, logically, be split evenly between Remain and Leave.

Which, on the final tally, would come to Leave at 51.5% and Remain at 42.95%.

[Little John]

So, if you go onto the Electoral Calculus page and input Thursday's results (the regional swings included) matched against current majorities.

The result was:

Brexit Party 446 seats
Labour Party 70 seats
SNP 56 seats
Lib Dems 53 seats
Plaid Cymru 6 seats
Green Party 1 seat
Tories 0 Seats

Labour would win all of the seats in: Manchester, Bradford. Liverpool, Blackburn, Knowsley, Warley, Slough, Luton, Hove, Oxford, Oldham, Preston. Around Liverpool they'd keep Halton, Wallasey, Bootle, Birkenhead, Garston.

Within London they would hold most of their seats but lose 11 to the Lib Dems.

Islington (Emily Thornberry), Kensington, Hampstead, Tooting, Bermondsey, Brentford+Isleworth, Erith and Thamesmead, Eltham, Enfield Southgate, Croydon Central, Battersea would all go Lib Dem.
Outside London Labour losses to the Lib Dems would be confined to : Cambridge, Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam...

Worse still for Labour they would be defeated by the Brexit Party in every seat they currently hold in Yorkshire (excepting Bradford), the North East, and Wales. Almost all Midlands seats plus Exeter, Norwich, Southampton, Portsmouth and Plymouth. All Scottish seats lost to the SNP.

Even the Leicester seats would be split between Labour and Brexit Party as would Birmingham, Nottingham, and Bristol.

So, while Emily Thornberry may have good reason to fear the Lib Dem advance in London, there are far more Labour MPs who face losing their seats to the Brexit Party if the party officially adopts a policy of reneging upon the Referendum.

So, while the big story is the annihilation of the Tories across the whole country, the more interesting one is which set of Labour voters is Labour prepared to jettison? A handful of 14 remainer seats in London and student constituencies or a huge swathe (167) of leave voting Labour seats in England and Wales?

[UndercoverElephant]

Okay, so cutting through the usual spin and bullshit in the MSM:

The four parties who promised to honour the Brexit result - deal or no deal - include Conservatives, Labour, Brexit party and UKIP which, when their votes are added together comes to 58.1%.

However, given Labour's recent prevarications, let's put their share of the vote to one side for the moment. Which leaves completely explicit Leave - deal or no deal - parties (Brexit, Conservatives and UKIP) at 44%.

Explicit Remain parties, meanwhile, (Lib Dems, SNP and Change UK come to 35.9%.

If we assume that there are roughly an equal amount of Labour voting Remainers and Leavers (who may be foolish enough to think the Labour party will honour the result of the referendum) then the Labour party's votes should, logically, be split evenly between Remain and Leave.

Which, on the final tally, would come to Leave at 51.5% and Remain at 42.95%.

It is not possible to come to a meaningful aggregrate result like this. Too many people voting labour and tory when both those parties have an unclear brexit position.

[Little John]

No... no.. of course it's not.

Which is, of course, why the Remain MSM are doing precisely that.

Bollocks it's not.

Or, at least, the aggregates I have just provided have a lot more grounding in reality than anything being spewed out of the mass media at present

[UndercoverElephant]

So, while the big story is the annihilation of the Tories across the whole country, the more interesting one is which set of Labour voters is Labour prepared to jettison? A handful of 14 remainer seats in London and student constituencies or a huge swathe (167) of leave voting Labour seats in England and Wales?

This is not a true picture. It really does all depend on who is elected tory leader and what their policy is on brexit. If the tories swing hard towards no deal, all of the above number will change. If labour were to respond by becoming more brexity, they'll lost the coming election. There's too many other parties lining up for the no deal vote, and Labour has already committed itself to oppose no deal.

[Little John]

I'm beginning to notice how your analyses are usually based on your assumptions about the machinations of politicians.

Whereas, I am simply basing mine on what people are actually voting for.

You might want to consider trying a different approach

[UndercoverElephant]

Or, at least, the aggregates I have just provided have a lot more grounding in reality than anything being spewed out of the mass media at present

From what I can see, the "mass media" is not spewing a consistent message. The press and the rest of the media are reflecting public opinion - they are deepy polarised, with both sides claiming a slight advantage. The truth is that the whole country is split down the middle, and the mechanics of the brexit conundrum means there is no way out of the deadlock.

The middle ground is now a killing zone. May's deal is completely dead and cannot be fixed. The EU will not reopen the WA. Parliament will not agree to any format of second referendum, nor will it directly revoke article 50.

Therefore the tories have no choice but to abandon their own deal and elect a no deal prime minister. But parliament won't allow no deal to happen, and the EU will extend A50 indefinitely in order to prevent no deal. And even if it doesn't/can't, an incoming tory leader who tried to take the country out of the EU on no deal by default would instantly find themselves unable to govern the country. Much more likely, tory “moderates� would collapse their own government to prevent this happening, but by far the most likely outcome is another extension - probably a long one.

Which means the UK parliament is completely paralysed until such time as there is a general election, whether that is called early or happens automatically in 2022. When that election happens, it is reasonable to presume that the new tory leader will form an electoral pact with Farage, with tories standing in seats currently held by tories and the libdems, and the brexit party standing in seats held by labour. Labour will presumably go for a policy of trying to renegotiate the WA, and then holding a deal vs remain referendum. This will amount to remain, since the EU either won't renegotiate, or won't offer anything capable of beating remain.

So that is how this ends: in a no deal vs remain election. If the tory+BXP+DUP gets a majority then the brexit process ends with no deal. If Lab+LD+SNP+PC+GRN get a majority then it ends with a revocation of article 50.