Ukraine Watch...

[Default0ptions]

Ralph2: “when the original plan failed so spectacularly”

What are you assuming that “the original plan” was?

Russia did lay out its objectives for their military action right from the start and have pretty much achieved them.

Whatever you think they were - it’s now abundantly clear that Russia has pretty much achieved the aims that it stated when it went into Ukraine, and that the hoped for Ukrainian counter offensive to retake everything including Crimea back to 2014 borders has completely flopped.

I can’t see much more meaningful funding of an already lost cause coming up from America, and the EU is already staggering under the self inflicted economic consequences of sanctioning its own supply of cheap pipelined gas from Russia.

Further war will only mean more suffering for everyone concerned.

[Ralphw2]

No.


Your assessment is wrong in every statement.

[Default0ptions]

Sometime perhaps I should set out the reasons for my understanding of the situation regarding the Ukraine, but it’s one of those things where you either swallow the propaganda from either side or make some attempt to get a balanced perspective.

I do, however, predict that the Ukraine will end up defunded by the west and forced to seek terms, giving Russia more or less the territories it now has control of - and thus in more or less the position that simple adherence to the Minsk agreements would have resulted in.

But with hundreds of thousands dead.

I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.

[clv101]

I do, however, predict that the Ukraine will end up defunded by the west and forced to seek terms, giving Russia more or less the territories it now has control of - and thus in more or less the position that simple adherence to the Minsk agreements would have resulted in.

That's my expectation too. I wouldn't say 'defunded' but I am expecting Ukraine to receive less support this year than last, and no where near enough to recapture significant territory.

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't know what to expect. If Trump wins then maybe China invades Taiwan and we're in WW3 territory.

[invalid]

I don't know what to expect. If Trump wins then maybe China invades Taiwan and we're in WW3 territory.

So you're reneging on all your previous predictions then?

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't know what to expect. If Trump wins then maybe China invades Taiwan and we're in WW3 territory.

So you're reneging on all your previous predictions then?

Which predictions were those then?

I will admit I did not expect any serious chance of Trump returning to power. I never actually predicted it wouldn't happen, but maybe I subconsciously assumed it wouldn't.

I also do remember saying it looked like we might be heading for WW3.

[invalid]

What is abundantly clear to me at least is that the Americans will not tolerate a new status quo where Russia retains control of Crimea. It is too important, strategically. Maybe I am wrong, but I don't think the Americans will withdraw support for Ukraine while Russia occupies Crimea.

[invalid]

I have no crystal ball, but if I was forced to bet on it, my bet would be that Crimea will be back in Ukrainian hands by the time the shooting stops. I believe it is within the power of the US to ensure that happens, and I think they will do exactly that. What happens in the east is another matter, but Crimea is strategically crucial for both sides. The US wants Crimea under western control, and I think they will get what they want.

[invalid]

It looks to me like Russia is going to be completely defeated, with the possible exception that they might be able to hold on to Crimea, and I think we are now talking about months rather than years.

[invalid]

The west decided very early on that it would back Ukraine to the conclusion of this war. And you can't really do that by half measures -


Nobody is trying to dismantle Russia. But it will be defeated, just as it has been before.

[invalid]

Greer's latest is interesting regarding the conflict, and the thinking that may have drived it: https://www.ecosophia.net/the-three-sti ... r-tolkien/

[UndercoverElephant]

I have no crystal ball...

[invalid]

Evidently. And there are many more examples.

[invalid]

I am still expecting Ukraine to take back the vast majority of its occupied territory, including Crimea. They may decide some parts of the eastern Donbas is not worth the trouble of recapturing.