https://www.goldmoney.com/research/gold ... -final-act
Thats one view. Boris will deliver hard Brexit.Reportedly, he (Boris) has been having one-to-one meetings with his fellow MPs to do just that. Sometime ago, there was a well-founded belief that if Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party at least five MPs would resign the whip. Since then, Change UK, a dustbin of disillusioned Remainers has been formed with eleven MPs, three of which were Conservatives. It has been a complete failure and a sharp lesson to other would-be jumpers, so there are likely to be no more defections on a Johnson leadership.
Johnson has also been taking the advice of Lynton Crosby, probably the most successful political strategist today. It was Crosby who advised Scott Morrison in last weekend’s Australian election, when the expected Labour opposition victory was successfully overturned. He also advised Johnson in his successful elections as Mayor of London in 2008 and 2012.
This is interesting, because Johnson appears to be working to a carefully constructed plan. He avoids press comment over Brexit and writes about anything else in his Monday column at the Daily Telegraph. His contributions in Parliament have been brief, the few on Brexit generally confined to democracy rather than trade. He has positioned himself to rescue the party from electoral destruction if called upon, rather than appear to be an overtly ambitious politician, unlike all the other contenders. It is quite Churchillian, in the sense there is a parallel with Churchill’s election by his peers to lead the nation in its darkest hour. He even wrote about it in a recent bestseller, The Churchill Factor,[iv]and understands intimately what it took for Churchill to gain the support of the House.
It is therefore hardly surprising Johnson is the favourite to succeed Mrs May. His appreciation of free markets means he is not frightened by trading with the EU on WTO terms. Furthermore, President Trump admires him, and would be likely to fast-track a US trade deal with the UK. However, Johnson is likely to pursue a deal on radically different terms on a take-it-or-leave-it basis with no further extensions to Exit Day.
Here's the alternative. Yes, UE, from our old friends Eurointelligence...
https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html
So this is it. Theresa May will today announce the date when she will formally resign as leader of the Conservative Party. The day is expected to be in the week of June 10. Her resignation will trigger a Conservative leadership election, with a first round among MPs and a final run-off between the two winners among Tory members.
May will remain prime minister until her successor is elected. The polls have Boris Johnson in a very strong lead. The leadership contest could, in theory, go on all the way until the end of July. But it could end early if the other candidates conclude that they stand no chance of beating Boris. In this case, he could be prime minister before the end of June.
The FT cites sources that May was in a fragile state during the discussions yesterday, which were attended by her husband Philip. The date was chosen so that she would still be prime minister and party leader during the state visit by Donald Trump on June 3-5.
The second reading of the withdrawal agreement is now indefinitely off the table. The Times reports that May could be using her remaining time in office to kick-start legislation on the less controversial parts of the withdrawal agreement bill, those focusing on citizens' rights and the transition period. The Telegraph reports that the latest events were precipitated when Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, told her to drop the bill as he would not be in a position to support it.
So this detail of UK politics is settled. And now what?
The UK's political class will discover that the majorities in the House of Commons are what they are. The UK parliament still has no majority for a Brexit deal, and it might put up obstacles for a no-deal Brexit. A new Tory leader has yet to regain the voters the Tories will have lost in yesterday's European election.
We noted the discussions on both sides are once again drifting off into unicorn-land. A conservative commentator yesterday expressed confidence that Johnson would resurrect the Malthouse Compromise. We had hoped never again to report on this wretched idea of dropping the Irish backstop, but here we are. And the Remain side seeks comfort in the illusion that there is no majority in the House of Commons for a no-deal Brexit, conveniently ignoring the fact that it is the legal default position.
Most of those commentators do not have a clue about EU law or EU politics. The danger of a no-deal Brexit remain significant. The only tools the UK parliament has at its disposal to prevent it are passing of the withdrawal bill, unilateral revocation of Brexit, or a successful no-confidence vote. We see no majority for any of these.
Our main scenario is that Johnson will become PM and that he will try, and fail, to re-negotiate the withdrawal treaty. At this point he will confront the House of Commons with a straight choice between deal or no-deal. If May had done this, the Commons would have passed her bill, and she would remain prime minister.
