Brexit process

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 May 2019, 00:00

The 1922 executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasnâ€™t announced sheâ€™s resigned by Friday, they will open it.

That's it then.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 May 2019, 08:43

Little John wrote:The 1922 executive has voted tonight on whether or not to change Tory party rules to allow a new confidence vote in Theresa May. The votes have been sealed in an envelope, and if the PM hasnâ€™t announced sheâ€™s resigned by Friday, they will open it.

That's it then.

I heard it was June 10th they will open it, and that the result is already known (the rule change will happen). She's almost certainly going to resign tomorrow, which is about as bad timing and undignified as possible, since quite a few very loyal tories won't turn out or will vote Brexit Party just to make sure she does actually go.

The fascinating thing about what follows is that the 14+ leadership contenders are actually going to have to make very clear what their stance on no deal is, in full knowledge that the more no-dealy they are then the more likely it is the membership will choose them in the final two, but the less likely it is that the parliamentary party will let them reach the final two. Going to be very interesting what Boris says. Can't see anybody getting away with fudging it.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 May 2019, 10:53

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... gel-farage

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 23 May 2019, 12:22

May is refusing to resign and has again delayed her withdrawal bill. It will not now be presented before June, and no vote in the first week of June.

She simply refuses to give up.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 May 2019, 13:22

PS_RalphW wrote:May is refusing to resign and has again delayed her withdrawal bill. It will not now be presented before June, and no vote in the first week of June.

She simply refuses to give up.

Refusing to give up when you are mathematically defeated is a sign of mental illness. She's turning into Imelda Marcos.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 May 2019, 17:21

May is insane and her party are too spineless to do her in. It's f***ing hilarious. I'm beginning to think more and more, she has the character of Gordon Brown. There is something asbergic/autistic about her. One way or another, there is some key psychological component missing from her makeup.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 May 2019, 18:06

Something that I have been reading about today:

Roughly 5% of the U.K. population are EU citizens but not U.K. citizens.

These people are eligible to vote in the European elections but were not eligible to vote in the Brexit referendum.

How will their votes affect the result of the European elections and how should we take this into consideration in any comparison of the results of these elections to that of the Brexit referendum and use it to interpret the â€˜will of the peopleâ€™?

I think the answer may be something along the following lines:

We might reasonably assume that 5% of the votes cast will be cast by EU (non UK) citizens and that 100% of their votes will be for Remain.

So, on that basis, 5% of the votes for Remain MP's should be disregarded in any analysis which aims to use the Euro election results as an indirect index of UK citizens' opinion on Brexit.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 23 May 2019, 18:28

UndercoverElephant wrote:
PS_RalphW wrote:May is refusing to resign and has again delayed her withdrawal bill. It will not now be presented before June, and no vote in the first week of June.

She simply refuses to give up.
Refusing to give up when you are mathematically defeated is a sign of mental illness. She's turning into Imelda Marcos.

Does she own that many shoes?

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 23 May 2019, 18:33

Little John wrote:Something that I have been reading about today:

Roughly 5% of the U.K. population are EU citizens but not U.K. citizens.

These people are eligible to vote in the European elections but were not eligible to vote in the Brexit referendum.

How will their votes affect the result of the European elections and how should we take this into consideration in any comparison of the results of these elections to that of the Brexit referendum and use it to interpret the â€˜will of the peopleâ€™?

I think the answer may be something along the following lines:

We might reasonably assume that 5% of the votes cast will be cast by EU (non UK) citizens and that 100% of their votes will be for Remain.

So, on that basis, 5% of the votes for Remain MP's should be disregarded in any analysis which aims to use the Euro election results as an indirect index of UK citizens' opinion on Brexit.

There is a lot of uncertainty. I have just been to vote, and up until 6 oâ€™clock, the turn-out was abysmal. If all the non-UK citizens vote for the remain parties, (which is a complex problem as we have options for UK parties, but not for parties of other countries), and hardly any of the UK citizens bother to get off their backsides, it could skew the vote. It maybe that many non-UK citizens vote for leave parties, French, Spanish, Italian, Greece for example.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 May 2019, 19:56

I doubt it if they are over here.

That is to say, those people most likely to vote for Leave MEPs on the basis of being concerned with things like inwardly migrating labour with all of the consequences for stressed infrastructure and competition for jobs, will be those people who are least able to up sticks and work elsewhere. Conversely, those people who are able to up sticks and work elsewhere will be most likely to vote for Remain MEPs on the basis that this best serves their economic interests. On that basis, one might expect a very large proportion if not virtually all of the EU citizens working in the UK to vote for Remain MEPs.

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 23 May 2019, 20:47

You might expect that from one point of view, but Italy as a whole would be pleased to see Brexit succeed as I understand it, they would also like to get out from under the thumb.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 May 2019, 20:58

woodburner wrote:You might expect that from one point of view, but Italy as a whole would be pleased to see Brexit succeed as I understand it, they would also like to get out from under the thumb.

The indigenous Italians might well do so. But, as I have already said, the Italians voting in the UK Euro elections are not indigenous Italians.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 23 May 2019, 23:00

According to Melanie Phillips. May is due to announce her resignation tomorrow

https://www.melaniephillips.com/frying-pan-into-fire/

woodburner · Post by **woodburner** » 23 May 2019, 23:15

Little John wrote:According to Melanie Phillips. May is due to announce her resignation tomorrow

https://www.melaniephillips.com/frying-pan-into-fire/

Er, the article did have a note of caution

It would appear that Mrs May is about to resign.

Weâ€™d do well to be a little cautious about whether this is actually going to happen. Just saying.

We are reading that her resignation will be announced tomorrow..............

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 23 May 2019, 23:21

I think she's going tomorrow. This time she knows that if she doesn't jump she actually will be pushed. I have a feeling the results of this election are going to be really bad indeed for the tories.

Then it is going to be all about Boris and no deal.