Brexit process

[UndercoverElephant]

Corbyn, if he really wanted to be an agent of change, would have been better focusing on ruthlessly changing the labour party from within.

He has. Labour is a different party now than it would be had he not won the leadership.

At best he'll only be a pointing finger. Maybe that's enough for now, but this kind of shift is so slow; too slow to manage the decline. Too slow to deal with the rapidly changing reality the uk is facing.

No political party can prepare the western world for what is coming.

[clv101]

At best he'll only be a pointing finger. Maybe that's enough for now, but this kind of shift is so slow; too slow to manage the decline. Too slow to deal with the rapidly changing reality the uk is facing.

No political party can prepare the western world for what is coming.

Don't think many people round here think the existing political structures have a cat in hells chance of dealing with the rapidly changing reality the UK, indeed the whole world, is facing.

This is what collapse looks like from the inside. See Kuntsler's Long Emergency and others.

[kenneal - lagger]

We don't unfortunately have a Churchill, who stuck his neck out in the 1930s saying the nation should prepare for a future war, who will stand up and say that we have to prepare for climate Armageddon in this century. None of them have the vision or the guts.

[adam2]

Liberal “Democrat�’s party political broadcast today said “together we can defeat brexit�. Perhaps they should change the name to just “Liberals� or The non-democratic Liberal party. I take it they don’t understand ‘democracy�.

ISTR, that when the referendum result was announced, that an ex MP on these forums stated that democratic votes by the people should be respected by MPs "unless the people have clearly made the wrong choice"
Sums up the position rather well.

[UndercoverElephant]

Latest Yougov poll on voting intention in EU elections is pretty stunning:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/ar ... ment-polls

Brexit: 27%
Lab: 22%
Con: 15%
LD: 9%
UKIP: 7%
CuK: 6%

So Farage's party has already swept up half the previous UKIP vote and over half of the tory vote. And CuK are going nowhere fast.

This could kill off UKIP as a significant force in British politics. It means that even many of those people who find UKIP attractive because they want to express their anti-Islamism might vote Brexit Party instead, because that vote is more likely to count in terms of MEPs elected. If PR starts working against UKIP in the only elections they stand any chance of doing well in, they might as well throw the towel in.

And those figures exclude don't knows and will not votes. Include those and the tory figure goes down to 9%.

[RevdTess]

Who even knows what Change UK stands for yet? How are they different to the Lib Dems?

Also the Greens are on 10% and not even in your list.

[UndercoverElephant]

Who even knows what Change UK stands for yet? How are they different to the Lib Dems?

CuK are pointless. They don't stand for anything apart from stopping brexit. They say they want to change British politics, but do not say what they want to change.

If they can't make a splash at these EU elections, it is difficult to see any future for them.

[kenneal - lagger]

...........
CuK are pointless. They don't stand for anything apart from stopping brexit. They say they want to change British politics, but do not say what they want to change..............

The only way to change British politics is to outlaw the lobbying system and the patronage that goes with it but if they say that they won't get any funding. Sensibly they're very quiet on that.

[RevdTess]

The detail of the voting intentions is very revealing also.

Labour and Greens are overwhelmingly supported by young people. Brexit Party and Tories overwhelmingly supported by older people.

Labour has 47% of 18-24s, but 8% of 65+
Brexit has 6% of 18-24s, but 42% of 65+

Also Brexit Party has a strong male bias (30% of men vs 22% of women)

And 9% of Leave voters are now supporting Labour, vs 34% of Remain voters, which is why it's so important for Corbyn to come out in favour of a 2nd ref if he wants to not lose them.

[UndercoverElephant]

And 9% of Leave voters are now supporting Labour, vs 34% of Remain voters, which is why it's so important for Corbyn to come out in favour of a 2nd ref if he wants to not lose them.

I'd certainly spin this differently. It's not so much a case of coming out in favour of a second referendum in order not to lose the remain vote. In fact, from a leave POV, that is cynically selling out. Labour can, instead, quite honestly, say that there aren't many alternatives left. It is clear that no deal won't get through any UK parliament, before or after another election. And it is also clear that May's deal is considered unsupportable both by non-tory remainers and quite a lot of tory leavers. It's the "bad deal" she kept telling everybody was worse than no deal.

Which leaves what, exactly? The truth is that the only way brexit could actually happen was if May brought back a deal from Brussels that could conceivably get through parliament, and she has failed spectacularly to do so. Whether you want to blame her self-imposed red lines, her strategic incompetence, her failure to consult her own cabinet or reach out across the chamber, the end product remains the same, and it is no good.

So Labour can simply say this: The EU are refusing to renegotiate the WA, which won't pass the commons unless confirmed as the will of the people in a referendum. Therefore a referendum is the only viable way forwards.

They actually don't have much to lose by taking this line, since they've already lost the votes of committed no-dealers and any other leavers they lose will go to the brexit party instead of the tories. Under FPTP, this will deliver them seats.

[RevdTess]

So Labour can simply say this: The EU are refusing to renegotiate the WA, which won't pass the commons unless confirmed as the will of the people in a referendum. Therefore a referendum is the only viable way forwards.

They actually don't have much to lose by taking this line, since they've already lost the votes of committed no-dealers and any other leavers they lose will go to the brexit party instead of the tories. Under FPTP, this will deliver them seats.

I entirely agree with this. There is plenty of justification for Labour to support a 2nd referendum given the present situation. It's their party policy, it's an option that can bypass a recalcitrant parliament and deliver Brexit if the country still wants it, and it allows Remainers to feel that the country really has a settled view.

I don't expect the Labour leadership will come out as Remainers, only that they'll have to accept that a 2nd ref is the only way forward for all sides. A GE is just impossible for the Tories to contemplate now that Farage is rampant again.

[Potemkin Villager]

Labour and Greens are overwhelmingly supported by young people. Brexit Party and Tories overwhelmingly supported by older people.

Labour has 47% of 18-24s, but 8% of 65+
Brexit has 6% of 18-24s, but 42% of 65+

Also Brexit Party has a strong male bias (30% of men vs 22% of women)

Brexit is largely a game for grumpy old gits who are angry the world is not the way they want it to be. Leave voters are dying off faster than remainers.

[kenneal - lagger]

Thank you PV. I take it you are a young twat whose world isn't going to be the way you want it to be. Civilisations die off: they always have and this is just part of a die off. You were born 50 years too late, so tough mate, you will have to work hard for your living instead of twiddling your thumbs on an I-phone all day.

Hopefully my wife and I will have a good ten years of voting Brexit in us before we leave this world.

Oh! By the way, I am quite happy with my life and want my children's and grandchildren's lives to be better than they would be in the EU.

[emordnilap]

Liberal “Democrat�’s party political broadcast today said “together we can defeat brexit�. Perhaps they should change the name to just “Liberals� or The non-democratic Liberal party. I take it they don’t understand ‘democracy�.

ISTR, that when the referendum result was announced, that an ex MP on these forums stated that democratic votes by the people should be respected by MPs "unless the people have clearly made the wrong choice"
Sums up the position rather well.

Was it Ken Clarke who said he doesn’t take any notice of “opinion polls� (I think he meant the referendum)? So did he take any notice of those other “opinion polls� that put him in power?

[RevdTess]

Hopefully my wife and I will have a good ten years of voting Brexit in us before we leave this world.

Oh! By the way, I am quite happy with my life and want my children's and grandchildren's lives to be better than they would be in the EU.

I was about to ask whether you were a Brexit voter for yourself or for your children/grandchildren, but then you edited your post and answered the question!