Brexit process

[fuzzy]

Does anyone think the existence of 2+ 'brexit' parties is suspicious? I would expect a deliberate attempt by the city, eu etc, to split a leave landslide.

[UndercoverElephant]

Does anyone think the existence of 2+ 'brexit' parties is suspicious? I would expect a deliberate attempt by the city, eu etc, to split a leave landslide.

No, it is not a conspiracy.

When leave won the referendum it looked like UKIP's very existence was pointless, and its support and membership started collapsing. But at the same time, there was a leadership void on the right of british politics, with only the like of Tommy Robinson willing to speak the truth about Islam. So after repeated failed leadership attempts, UKIP fell into the hands of the anti-Islamist, anti-identity-politics right. It ceased to be a single issue anti-EU party. The rest is history - May botched brexit and now it looks like we might well stay in the EU, so there was a vacancy on the right for a party fulfilling the role of the old version of UKIP, which is what Farage's new party is.

I suspect what is going to happen is that the Brexit party will streak into a clear lead over UKIP, and start hoovering up votes from UKIP supporters who see brexit as a more important issue than Islam, as well as leavers from both the tories and labour.

There was never going to be a leave landslide anyway. What we are seeing is a fracturing of the 2-party system.

[Little John]

Does anyone think the existence of 2+ 'brexit' parties is suspicious? I would expect a deliberate attempt by the city, eu etc, to split a leave landslide.

Yes, I do vaguely suspect that and, it may well limit the effectiveness of the Brexit/anti establishment vote this time around. But, there is now a process of change underway that is more or less unstoppable. The only thing left up for debate now is how quickly and how violently will that change occur.

[Little John]

The "brexit/anti-establishment" sentiment is only set to rise in the years ahead. It was always there in the bottom 30% of the electorate since way back in the late 80s. but,m that section of the electorate were least well educated, least politically engaged and so least likely to vote. What has changed and is continuing to change is the swelling of that rump of people at the bottom with the better educated and more politically engaged.

The Brexit vote did not happen because of that 30%. It happened because of an additional 20% who recently joined them, economically speaking.

For reasons outside of anyone's control, that trend is set to continue.

[UndercoverElephant]

Given it looks likely we will be taking part in the EU parliamentary elections, there already appears to be an earthquake happening in the polls for that. Labour are losing support, but the Tories are in utter freefall. Their votes largely going to UKIP and the newly formed Brexit party.

The tory vote is splitting 3 ways. UKIP are getting the votes of anti-Islamist leavers, Brexit party is getting the votes of other leavers on the economic right, and CuK is getting the votes of tory remainers who want a second referendum (there are still 6 tory MPs holding out against May's deal because they want to stop brexit entirely, who could potentially defect to CuK as things continue to get worse for the tories. There's plenty more who are backing May's deal but would choose revoke over no deal).

As for a general election, I don't think the Tories would dare push for one right now because that same freefall in their votes is happening with voters when asked about their voting preferences in a GE. Perhaps they may risk it with a new leader. But, that is hard to tell right now.

Very hard to say. Their options are closing down in every direction. Surely the least bad option is for May to go and be replaced with a brexiteer, but she's sufficiently lost the plot that she might well insist on staying regardless how bad it gets. They might have to change the tory constitution to remove her before November.

I think for the tories the only viable long term option is for the anti-EU right to finally claim victory in the tory civil war. If the pro-EU left wins then the tory party will be left as an empty shell. It will have MPs, and some rich backers, but will have lost half its membership and two-thirds of its voters. But what on Earth will happen if the brexiteer right finally and conclusively wins control of the tory party, but it remains impossible to force either a no deal or a revised withdrawal agreement through parliament? We would then have, in effect, THREE pro-brexit parties, while brexit itself is either cancelled or left in limbo-without-end. This can only lead to a Labour victory or Labour-led coalition at the next election, and a referendum which remain wins.

However, Labour are also suffering for their share of the treachery over Brexit. Perhaps, not quite as much as the Tories. But, once we are into GE territory, they will no longer have the cover of "opposition" to hide behind, So, I might hazard a guess that if a GE were held tomorrow, we would either end up with a hung parliament with a significant minority of Brexit supporting independents in it. Or, Labour would limp into 10 Downing Street with no more authority to govern than the Tories did after May's disastrous "victory" at the last GE.

Most likely outcome is Labour as the largest party in a hung parliament, or with a majority not quite large enough to force through referendum legislation without the help of opposition votes. But there would be enough opposition votes. Labour would then end up in the position Cameron wanted to end up in 2015, being able to claim it can't deliver brexit because it is dependent on support from anti-brexit coalition partners.

Whichever way you look at it, it is a clusterfuck and, sooner or later, a major political realignment is coming to the UK.

The major realignment is already underway. It's already happened on the left. Ummuna and his band of red tories finally accepted that the Labour party had been taken over by a new version of the old left, and that they have "changed the locks". New Labour has been conclusively and permanently defeated. I know you think a Starmer-led Labour would re-invent Blairism, but I think you are wrong. There is a limit how far "right" he could lead the membership and the current voting base, which wants to see real change (eg renationalisation of utilities and public transport, massive investment in the NHS, etc..), and which has the power to make sure it becomes Labour policy.

What has not happened yet is the realignment on the right, and that is actually much more important, because the tory party is the preferred political instrument of The Powers That Be. The tories have totally collapsed at least twice before in their long history, and on both occasions it was part of a major and permanent realignment of British politics.

[Little John]

Of course the realignment is happening on the right. What do you think UKIP, or Britain first, or a number of other populist parties who are on the Right that are springing up are? Sure enough, that realignment is not happening in the Tory party itself. Or, at least, not quite yet. But, that may yet come.

As for the "realignment" of the Labour party. I would suggest that Corbyn's neutering and bringing back into the broader, neo-liberal apoligist, globalist, liberal left's fold is precisely the opposite of a realignment. It is just another version of controlled opposition.

Whatever Corbyn's previous political positions, whatever his vision for Labour and the UK, that vision is now dead. Corbyn himself, in political terms, is a dead man walking. The PLP are now just biding their time before replacing him with one of their own who, initially, will make Corbyn-like noises but who, over time, will return the Labour party to doing the job of being the controlled opposition it always was. Indeed, that process has just moved up another gear as there are reports of influential leave supporting members and councillors being suspended from the labour party in recent days. Additionally, there are other reports of moves in the party to stop Labour MEP candidates who are pro Brexit/euro sceptic from standing in the EU elections.

So, I call bullshit on your "realignment of the Left" claim. It's frankly laughable.

[Snail]

Even if corbyn is the real deal, what is to stop parliament, along with the civil service and even his own mps, using the same tricks learned in brexit to prevent anything more than mere tokenism. Justifying it by passively-aggressively repeating "its bad for the country, bad for jobs, people didn't realize what they were voting for" etc.

[UndercoverElephant]

So, I call bullshit on your "realignment of the Left" claim. It's frankly laughable.

Ummuna and co would disagree. A Labour Party openly calling for renationalisation of the railways and water companies is a real change, Steve. It represents the death of neoliberalism. Literally. This was not supposed to happen. Thatherism/Reaganism was supposed to be "the end of history", and taking back these things into public ownership was, until very recently, considered a "hard left joke".

I have no idea what you would consider a "realignment of the left" if that isn't it. A real lurch to the left has to start with things like that.

[UndercoverElephant]

Even if corbyn is the real deal, what is to stop parliament, along with the civil service and even his own mps, using the same tricks learned in brexit to prevent anything more than mere tokenism. Justifying it by passively-aggressively repeating "its bad for the country, bad for jobs, people didn't realize what they were voting for" etc.

What is different is that if Labour ends up forming the next government (or the bulk of it), then it will have the numbers in parliament required to push through a Corbynite agenda. The SNP and libdems are hardly going to stand in the way of renationalisation program, investment in the NHS or raising taxes on the higher paid, are they?

[Little John]

All of these things are being promised on the back of the economics of perpetual growth. Consequently, all of these things require the model of economics that goes along with that. The only difference between "left" and "right" within the accepted model, above, is the extent to which they promise to ameliorate the effects on people on the ground of that economic model.

In case you hadn't noticed, that stopped working some time ago.

[UndercoverElephant]

All of these things are being promised on the back of the economics of perpetual growth.

That is as maybe, but the tories aren't even promising them and neither did New Labour. That is a real change, and it is in the direction of the old left. The tories and the centre regard Labour as "Marxist", which is an exaggeration in real terms, but looks real enough compared to where we are right now.

Consequently, all of these things require the model of economics that goes along with that. The only difference between "left" and "right" within the accepted model, above, is the extent to which they promise to ameliorate the effects on people on the ground of that economic model.

In case, you hadn't noticed, that stopped working some time ago.

No major political party is going to advocate an adjustment to zero-growth economics. If that's what you mean by "political realignment", it is not going to happen. Not any time soon, anyway.

[Snail]

Even if corbyn is the real deal, what is to stop parliament, along with the civil service and even his own mps, using the same tricks learned in brexit to prevent anything more than mere tokenism. Justifying it by passively-aggressively repeating "its bad for the country, bad for jobs, people didn't realize what they were voting for" etc.

What is different is that if Labour ends up forming the next government (or the bulk of it), then it will have the numbers in parliament required to push through a Corbynite agenda. The SNP and libdems are hardly going to stand in the way of renationalisation program, investment in the NHS or raising taxes on the higher paid, are they?

Labour itself is far from united on corbyn or his vision.

A token nationalisation on part of the railway will be backed but...big deal. The NHs will get a very modest increase and be backed but...big deal. An increase of a few percent of higher taxes but...big deal. And that's it.

Nothing more 'radical' is possible. The lib Dems will only go so far. Ditto the disappointing snp who are in the decline in any case and who would be committing harikari by simply aping labour.

Corbyn, if he really wanted to be an agent of change, would have been better focusing on ruthlessly changing the labour party from within. At best he'll only be a pointing finger. Maybe that's enough for now, but this kind of shift is so slow; too slow to manage the decline. Too slow to deal with the rapidly changing reality the uk is facing.

[woodburner]

Liberal “Democrat�’s party political broadcast today said “together we can defeat brexit�. Perhaps they should change the name to just “Liberals� or The non-democratic Liberal party. I take it they don’t understand ‘democracy�.

[Snail]

Vince cable has been a dire leader. Gordon brown, Vince cable, and Theresa may.

[Little John]

Labour itself is far from united on corbyn or his vision.

A token nationalisation on part of the railway will be backed but...big deal. The NHs will get a very modest increase and be backed but...big deal. An increase of a few percent of higher taxes but...big deal. And that's it.

Nothing more 'radical' is possible. The lib Dems will only go so far. Ditto the disappointing snp who are in the decline in any case and who would be committing harikari by simply aping labour.

Corbyn, if he really wanted to be an agent of change, would have been better focusing on ruthlessly changing the labour party from within. At best he'll only be a pointing finger. Maybe that's enough for now, but this kind of shift is so slow; too slow to manage the decline. Too slow to deal with the rapidly changing reality the uk is facing.

All of that