Brexit process

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 06 Apr 2019, 10:30

Lord Beria3 wrote:
Revoking Article 50 could be voted for by parliament but can the government ignore the vote?

No. There's a general principle of EU law that requires the EU only to deal with representatives of member states and third countries which satisfies the legal and democratic requirements of those states/countries. Parliament is sovereign, which means that if the government tried to do something that conflicts with something parliament had voted for, and the EU was complicit, then the EU would also be doing something illegal under EU law. So I think the ECJ would rule that that non-revocation was illegitimate.

Don't know the full details but these talks look like they are in real trouble.

They were never likely to go anywhere.

We have a binary choice ahead of us. By close of play next Friday, one of two things will have happened. We will either have left the EU with no deal, or the EU and UK will have agree a long extension, which will almost certainly lead, eventually, to a revocation of article 50. Presumably we will find out by the end of Wednesday evening which way it is going.

There is also a possibility that the decision to no-deal will be taken on Wednesday, and the EU will agree a short extension in an attempt to minimise the inevitable short-term chaos. What is certainly not going to happen is any more can-kicking by May. It's decision time.

cubes · Post by **cubes** » 06 Apr 2019, 15:43

Lord Beria3 wrote:The Tories would be destroyed for a generation if they stopped Brexit.

The chance of the tory party not being destroyed for a generation is long past now no matter what the outcome of brexit. I wouldn't be surprised if by the end of next year it's 2 separate parties.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 06 Apr 2019, 16:42

The same is likely for Labour as well for the same reasons. Or, at least, for a mirror of them.

The primary political dichotomy of our age is no longer Left versus Right. It is Globalism versus Localism. Left and right will still exist. But, as secondary dichotomy..

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 06 Apr 2019, 20:09

Little John wrote:The same is likely for Labour as well for the same reasons. Or, at least, for a mirror of them.

The primary political dichotomy of our age is no longer Left versus Right. It is Globalism versus Localism. Left and right will still exist. But, as secondary dichotomy..

I am not convinced alternatives will appear. They are all in it for the same reason - gravy.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 06 Apr 2019, 21:54

Alternatives are appearing all across the industrialised world. We are witnessing the painful birth of a new age.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 06 Apr 2019, 22:04

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... p-returns/

Tory voters already planning to desert to other hard right Brexit parties.

May is running out of time to deliver Brexit.

Tory donors and activists are now on strike as well. How long before they wake up in the May bunker?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... y-snapped/

The local elections will likely show a net loss of hundreds of Tory councillors, who will lose through no fault of their own. I did a random phone-around of Tory MPs, candidates and activists yesterday. With the exception of one MP, I found not a single one of them who would be voting Conservative in the European elections. To a man and woman, they all said they would be voting for The Brexit Party. Interestingly none mentioned Ukip, a party which is now identified with rampant Islamophobia, rather than Euroscepticism.

The European Elections will be a kind of second referendum. The political classes will be sent a very clear message by the electorate: You have betrayed us, and we wonâ€™t stand for it. Assuming Ukip and The Brexit Party donâ€™t split the pro-Brexit vote, Nigel Farage could sweep the electoral board.

So what happens next, assuming the talks collapse soon?

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/u ... ng-failure

Though Labour has not closed the door on talks entirely, the substance of its message this evening is that May must move if they are to produce results. If she does not, then on Monday MPs will find themselves in a familiar position: facing a series of indicative votes on Brexit, with no obvious consensus in sight.

Last time the indicative votes didn't deliver a majority (and certainly not a stable majority within the House of say 330 plus). Any chance of anything different this time?

I can't see the maths on the different options has changed much.

So May can ask for long extension but without a valid plan or reason or go for hard Brexit? Or alternatively the cabinet will revolt should you go for a long extension request.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 06 Apr 2019, 23:25

Shit.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -agreement

Merkel throws May a lifeline over UKâ€™s Brexit departure date

Ahead of crunch summit, Berlin is keeping options open to help secure support for a withdrawal agreement

In the face of moves from elsewhere in the EU to insist on a longer delay to Britainâ€™s departure, Merkel is keeping all options on the table ahead of this weekâ€™s EU summit and is said to be willing to back 30 June as an exit date. She is thought to be concerned that Donald Tuskâ€™s proposal of a year-long extension, with an option to exit earlier on ratification of the withdrawal agreement, could be self-defeating.

Although it seems there is a crack opening up between Germany and France...

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Apr 2019, 00:53

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47842572

Prime Minister Theresa May has insisted she had to reach out to Labour in a bid to deliver Brexit or risk letting it "slip through our fingers".

In a statement on Saturday night, Mrs May said there was a "stark choice" of either leaving the European Union with a deal or not leaving at all.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Apr 2019, 07:25

I am sick of this bullshit. The choice is:

Revocation of A50

Some kind of deal

Brexit on WTO

Every major media outlet has been pushing this f***ing line that No-Deal is not even an option. Meanwhile, public opinion has crystallised behind that very option.

Never in my life have I witnessed such a disconnect between the narrative being pushed by the political class and the reality in the wider country.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Apr 2019, 08:25

Little John wrote:I am sick of this bullshit.

It's only just getting started.

Parliament does not want to let no deal happen, neither does the EU, and now we know that May does not want to let it happen either. But her deal will not get through the commons. By the end of Wednesday we are going to find out what sort of not-brexit is going to happen. Shit, meet fan.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 07 Apr 2019, 09:25

Agree Little John.

Disconnect between SW1 and the rest of the country is staggering.

The various Tory kings to be must be waking up to this though! For purely career ambition somebody in the cabinet will need to lead a hard Brexit drive soon if they want the Tory crown!

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 07 Apr 2019, 09:45

There can be no insurrection in England, because MI5 will stop it. There was a Newport south election 2 days ago, and guess what there were 4 UK - I - P others to split the vote. How many are spooks funded?

Labour won with a wide spread of votes

http://22billionenergyslaves.blogspot.c ... t-out.html

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 07 Apr 2019, 09:55

If there were a GE tomorrow, how would you vote? (Local Doncaster poll)

1 Brexit Party 28%
2 Labour 27%
3 UKIP 18%
4 None of them 7%
5 Conservative 6%
6 The Independent Group/Change UK â€“ 5%
7 Liberal Democrat 4%
8 Green 3%
9 Independent 1%
10 Others 1%

https://www.doncasterfreepress.co.uk/ne ... -1-9684568

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 07 Apr 2019, 10:22

Those numbers will be reflective of every Labour marginal outside of the South East. Labour would be slaughtered in those marginals if a GE were held tomorrow.

But, I am guessing Conservative marginals will be facing the same.

There WILL be consequences to all of this.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 07 Apr 2019, 11:16

Just watched Marr on BBC1 and now I am convinced something quite extraordinary is going to happen. I had a hunch about it a few weeks back, then dismissed it again, but now it is like a rank outsider suddenly making a charge as we head into the final furlong. Revoke. Unthinkable? Think again.

May's deal cannot be fixed, and these Lab-Con talks will go nowhere, because even if a miracle happens and they can actually agree on something, neither May nor Corbyn will be able to get their parties behind it.

The tories cannot go for an election, because they would be annihilated and because they do not have enough money in the bank, or boots on the ground, to fight it. Neither can they go for a referendum.

Parliament will do anything in its power to prevent no deal, and it has the procedural power to pass bills against the will of the government.

Which means May is going to have to go to the EU summit on Wednesday to ask for an extension, but with no plan on how to break the deadlock.

What choices do the EU have? Offering May an extension without her offering a plan does not work for them. It sets up the possibility of a no deal immediately before the EU elections, which they are desperate to avoid. But what happens if they say no to this extension?

Answer: it sets up a final showdown in the house of commons between no deal and revoke. Neither labour nor the tories would choose this, but they don't have to, because parliament can.

And if that's what it comes down to, which option would win?

Answer: revoke, easily. No deal would probably win if this choice was offered in a referendum, but parliament will surely choose revoke.

The EU is not stupid. It can also see this coming, and while having a messed-up UK remain as a full member carries major risks itself, this is still, for them, the least bad outcome.

I predict that parliament will order May to revoke article 50 on Thursday, and she will have no choice but to comply.