Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

Drone attack reported on russian airport, 4 aircraft said to be damaged.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66654125
Sounds like a significant attack.

[Ralphw2]

Russia retaliated with a large barrage of drones and missiles. I get the impression that Ukraine has either got permission from the US to use imported drones directly on Russia, or it has built a large enough drone industry itself.

The summer offensive has been heavy o n Ukrainian casualties, and although Ukrainian troops are far more motivated, Russia is paying its volunteers from the poorer ethnic regions 3 times average salary back home, and can afford to lose a lot more cannon fodder.

This war will be won by how much the west, and the US in particular, is prepared to pay.

[clv101]

It's some 600km from Ukraine, over the full length of Belarus, reports are of multiple drones. That's quite an attack! Could they have launched from Estonia?!

[Mark]

That's quite an attack! Could they have launched from Estonia?!

For everyone's sake let's hope not...., that's a massive risk of contagion...

Drones are defo the weapon of the future - everything seems vulnerable to them....
Imagine the MIC will be busy developing new ones based on what's being learnt in this war...

[adam2]

Some of the drones used are large and sophisticated, more akin to a light aircraft but remotely controlled.
Some good work has been done by cheap and expendable consumer grade drones, dropping a grenade into russian trenches for example. Nearly silent, and almost invisible in the dark.
School kids can operate them, and do.

Has anyone yet tried launching a drone from a civilian aircraft ? If the aircraft was not presurised, it should be possible to open a door in flight to launch the drones. Advantages include greatly extending the range of the drone by virtue of starting at a significant altitude.

[UndercoverElephant]

Seems to be a lot of reports about Ukraine making significant breakthroughs, at least compared to recent months.

[BritDownUnder]

I wonder if the Ukrainians have investigated the possibility of balloon launched drones or even bomblets. Perhaps like the old barrage balloons used in WW2 tethered by cables. A cheap balloon coated in a metallic material might make a suitable nuisance to Russian radars as well and absorb a few expensive anti aircraft missiles.

An object the weight and profile of a large crowbar - 2 metres long and possibly 20kg - with some rudimentary guidance might be a menace to any hapless Russian in a trench somewhere.

I also hear that cheap cardboard drones made (or possibly just designed) in Australia have been causing mischief in Ukraine recently.

[UndercoverElephant]

Good article:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... hin-russia

Few Russians wanted the war in Ukraine – but they won’t accept a Russian defeat either

Elite fears of Russian defeat are linked to an ultimate fear of Russian anarchy, which is shared by much of the population at large. They actually agree with some of the toughest anti-Russian elements in the US and eastern Europe: that complete defeat in Ukraine would lead to the fall of the Putin regime and that this in turn could lead to a period of chaos that would gravely weaken or even destroy the Russian Federation.

[Vortex2]

I wonder if the Ukrainians have investigated the possibility of balloon launched drones or even bomblets. Perhaps like the old barrage balloons used in WW2 tethered by cables. A cheap balloon coated in a metallic material might make a suitable nuisance to Russian radars as well and absorb a few expensive anti aircraft missiles.

An object the weight and profile of a large crowbar - 2 metres long and possibly 20kg - with some rudimentary guidance might be a menace to any hapless Russian in a trench somewhere.

I also hear that cheap cardboard drones made (or possibly just designed) in Australia have been causing mischief in Ukraine recently.

Still designing devices to kill people I see .. safe in your armchair in the Antipodes.

[Vortex2]

complete defeat in Ukraine would lead to the fall of the Putin regime and that this in turn could lead to a period of chaos that would gravely weaken or even destroy the Russian Federation.

This could also:

• Force Russia to use nuclear weapons .. which might have sad side effects for all of us..

• Possibly cause Russian gas and oil to go off-line due to sabotage or social disruption.

• Allow the US to seize Russia's natural resources - purely for 'reparations' of course.

• Create new Islamic strongholds on the edge of Europe.

• Cause significant global economic disruption.

[BritDownUnder]

I wonder if the Ukrainians have investigated the possibility of balloon launched drones or even bomblets. Perhaps like the old barrage balloons used in WW2 tethered by cables. A cheap balloon coated in a metallic material might make a suitable nuisance to Russian radars as well and absorb a few expensive anti aircraft missiles.

An object the weight and profile of a large crowbar - 2 metres long and possibly 20kg - with some rudimentary guidance might be a menace to any hapless Russian in a trench somewhere.

I also hear that cheap cardboard drones made (or possibly just designed) in Australia have been causing mischief in Ukraine recently.

Still designing devices to kill people I see .. safe in your armchair in the Antipodes.

The cardboard drone is the brainchild of a company based in Melbourne but I am happy to take out a patent on the crowbar idea. Something like the Chinese 'weather balloon' but a bit more menacing. I see my ideas being more of a prank than a kill device. However being in a trench in Southern Ukraine and having the possibility of a crowbar travelling at 1000km/hr cause you some inconvenience in the head department might make them think about their predicament and why they are there.

War tends to be a bit like that. If you invade other people's countries they tend not to like it and unless you move back to your own country they might even kill you. Quite a lot of inventions, e.g. radar, electronic computers, jet engine, tinned food were perfected during periods of war.

I see no reason for Russia to 'lose' the war. I'd take Russian heavy, demographically altering casualties, withdrawal to antebellum borders, reparations, withdrawal from Kaliningrad and expulsion from the UN security council and the Russians are most welcome to hold Ukraine victory parades to their hearts content.

[Forever_Winter]

Meanwhile,

Another prominent scientist has bitten the dust:

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/18 ... y-Melnikov

A prominent Russian scientist who had cooperated with US space agency NASA among others has died after being rushed to hospital with a "severe form of poisoning", it has been claimed.
Professor Vitaly Melnikov reportedly died on Wednesday aged 77, almost three weeks after he had been taken to a Moscow hospital on August 11.

Makes you wonder why they bother with such elaborate means? Pushing him out of a window would have been a lot quicker....

[Ralphw2]

When I visited Gabon 20 years ago, the local joke was that you were entitled to any political view as long as it agreed with the president. Gabon was, and probably still is, a relatively affluent (by African standards) small ex colonial country and minor oil exporter, with side lines in Rainforest hardwoods and bushmeat. The eco tourism industry provided very nice air conditioned forest park retreats for senior ministers, with imported (French) bottled water on tap.

This coup is by the head if the presidents personal bodyguard detachment, and appears to have been with the consent of the local elite, and bloodless. Bongo had probably just got too greedy after 57 years in the same family job.

What it means for geop9litics and residual French colonial interests remains to be seen

[clv101]

What recent events across Africa have shown is that French colonial interests are rapidly receding, likely to be replaced by Chinese interests. The implications will be felt through bio-physical resources.

[Ralphw2]

Ukraine is claiming to have broken the Russian first line of defence, and that the next two will be much weaker, in the more western of its attack fronts in the south.

The next few weeks will show how fragile the remaining Russian forces are, and how much of the Ukrainian forces are still operational.