Are car loans driving us towards the next financial crash?

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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

Like watching a slow motion car crash? :wink:
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

Now time for the inevitable headline:

Zero Hedge: Brits have suddenly stopped buying cars

With all those scrappage deals in place along with cheap finance the market has gone beyond saturation point.
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

raspberry-blower wrote:Now time for the inevitable headline:

Zero Hedge: Brits have suddenly stopped buying cars

With all those scrappage deals in place along with cheap finance the market has gone beyond saturation point.
No surprises there, really. It had to come. No mention of improved car quality: there aren't the rustbuckets around that there used to be; I know loads of people (over here of course) who have hung on to a favourite car for 15 or more years.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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adam2
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Post by adam2 »

I suspect that a significant number of drivers are considering an electric car, but want to wait a bit before leaping into this.
I know of several people who don't to be the first person within their group of friends and family to go electric. They all want someone else to go electric first !
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

raspberry-blower wrote:Now time for the inevitable headline:

Zero Hedge: Brits have suddenly stopped buying cars

With all those scrappage deals in place along with cheap finance the market has gone beyond saturation point.
I am gutted at the thought of all those unloved shiny new cars sitting there rusting away on sales forecourts. (And few places abroad to dump them either.)

"UK car sales are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in demand because Britain's excess right-hand drive cars cannot be shipped to other areas of Europe, which use left-hand drive models."
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

Potemkin Villager wrote:"UK car sales are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in demand because Britain's excess right-hand drive cars cannot be shipped to other areas of Europe, which use left-hand drive models."
Yeah, the Irish (right-hand drive) love British cars! Always higher-specced than straight Irish sales. There's quite a trade going on here with many a small business shipping over small batches of hand-picked British failed PCPs. And the weak pound makes it even more lucrative.
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
kenneal - lagger
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Post by kenneal - lagger »

My daughter is replacing a work leased car at the moment and looked at an electric car. Unfortunately that wouldn't be a good idea as it would have to be charged by our 5.8kW generator!! It would be more efficient to run a FF engined car directly although that would be one way to legally run a road vehicle on red diesel! Unlike most people she uses her car for work during the day quite a bit so she couldn't reliably leave it on charge while she was a work. Charging the car overnight would entail running the genny at a time when we normally switch it off and go onto battery power.

Any thoughts, Adam, on the economics, both financial and carbon, of running the genny overnight and charging the car?
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

emordnilap wrote:
Potemkin Villager wrote:"UK car sales are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in demand because Britain's excess right-hand drive cars cannot be shipped to other areas of Europe, which use left-hand drive models."
small batches of hand-picked British failed PCPs. And the weak pound makes it even more lucrative.
According to Urban Dictionary:-

"PCP Also known as angeldust. Probably the scariest of all drugs. Was used as a horse tranquilizer. Makes the user hallucinate, become extremely violent, and not feel anything. People have been known to do horrible things to themselves while under the influence of PCP. DO NOT USE PCP. DO NOT. IT WILL RUIN YOUR LIFE."

You have been warned.
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
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emordnilap
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Post by emordnilap »

Potemkin Villager wrote:
emordnilap wrote:
Potemkin Villager wrote:"UK car sales are especially vulnerable to fluctuations in demand because Britain's excess right-hand drive cars cannot be shipped to other areas of Europe, which use left-hand drive models."
small batches of hand-picked British failed PCPs. And the weak pound makes it even more lucrative.
According to Urban Dictionary:-

"PCP Also known as angeldust. Probably the scariest of all drugs. Was used as a horse tranquilizer. Makes the user hallucinate, become extremely violent, and not feel anything. People have been known to do horrible things to themselves while under the influence of PCP. DO NOT USE PCP. DO NOT. IT WILL RUIN YOUR LIFE."

You have been warned.
Heh heh. A judgemental dictionary!
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
raspberry-blower
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Post by raspberry-blower »

This is bound to cheer up sentiment:

BBC UK car sales slide 9% in September
The figure was down 9.3% from September last year, while diesel sales - which have been hit by worries over air quality - fell by 21.7%.

It was the first time in six years that the key September market had fallen.

September is normally a big month for car sales, because it marks a change in the licence plate series that indicates how old vehicles are.
Puts some figures on the slowdown in the auto industry - even with all the gimmicks and low/zero interest finance there is only so many cars the public can afford (or pretend that they can afford while putting everything on tick would be a more realistic interpretation).

Expect a glut of cars on the forecourt and the prices of used cars will probably tank as well
A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools - Douglas Adams.
Little John

Post by Little John »

In which case, bloody excellent cos if they do tank I will be buying two or three second hand Vauxhall Astra estates and cannibalizing them to keep me on the road dirt cheap for the next 100k miles...:)

Vauxhall Astras, in case anyone is interested, cos they are one of the few cars that I don't hit my head on the roof when I am sat in them. Estates cos.. well.. I am always hauling stuff around for one reason or another. An Astra Estate with a wooden roof box can haul as much as an eight by four builder's trailer.
vtsnowedin
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Post by vtsnowedin »

kenneal - lagger wrote:My daughter is replacing a work leased car at the moment and looked at an electric car. Unfortunately that wouldn't be a good idea as it would have to be charged by our 5.8kW generator!! It would be more efficient to run a FF engined car directly although that would be one way to legally run a road vehicle on red diesel! Unlike most people she uses her car for work during the day quite a bit so she couldn't reliably leave it on charge while she was a work. Charging the car overnight would entail running the genny at a time when we normally switch it off and go onto battery power.

Any thoughts, Adam, on the economics, both financial and carbon, of running the genny overnight and charging the car?
Unless you have 4000 to 5000 KWHs a year of solar or other renewable
generated electricity available an electric car is just a car running on coal or natural gas. Running a home backup generator to charge one would cause about twice the pollution of taking power from the grid because at least the stacks at the power plants have particle scrubbers on them and run more efficiently then a small ICE.
Little John

Post by Little John »

vtsnowedin wrote:
kenneal - lagger wrote:My daughter is replacing a work leased car at the moment and looked at an electric car. Unfortunately that wouldn't be a good idea as it would have to be charged by our 5.8kW generator!! It would be more efficient to run a FF engined car directly although that would be one way to legally run a road vehicle on red diesel! Unlike most people she uses her car for work during the day quite a bit so she couldn't reliably leave it on charge while she was a work. Charging the car overnight would entail running the genny at a time when we normally switch it off and go onto battery power.

Any thoughts, Adam, on the economics, both financial and carbon, of running the genny overnight and charging the car?
Unless you have 4000 to 5000 KWHs a year of solar or other renewable
generated electricity available an electric car is just a car running on coal or natural gas. Running a home backup generator to charge one would cause about twice the pollution of taking power from the grid because at least the stacks at the power plants have particle scrubbers on them and run more efficiently then a small ICE.
yes
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Potemkin Villager
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Post by Potemkin Villager »

Little John wrote:
l.. I am always hauling stuff around for one reason or another. An Astra Estate with a wooden roof box can haul as much as an eight by four builder's trailer.
Shame they were not around in Robin's time! I guess they are handy for all that stealing from the rich and giving to the poor? :wink:

Several people are convinced I am misleading them by having to explain that there are good reasons why it is impractical to run an EV from a couple of car roof mounted PV panels (even in the desert) unless you are in no particularly great hurry to get anywhere!
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
woodburner
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Post by woodburner »

It would work if they added a wind turbine on top of the car to supplement the solar panels, and the faster you go the more electricity it will generate. :evil:
To become an extremist, hang around with people you agree with. Cass Sunstein
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