Ukraine Watch...

[kenneal - lagger]

The Ukrainians have shown themselves to be adept at all forms of warfare so far, including the dis/information war so this "leak" of information could be just that or it could be a deliberate leak of disinformation. Which ever it is I am sure that the Ukrainians will make the most of it.

[Mark]

Pentagon documents leak a risk to US national security, officials say:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65235121

Personally, I don't think this leak was deliberate...., think this was a small 'win' for Russia....
Obviously, just my take, nothing concrete to base it on....

[dustiswhatweare]

It appears they are about to get their man, quoted in the Guardian as:

'An increasing volume of evidence points to the leaker being a disaffected young man with racist views and a preoccupation with guns, who claimed to work on a military base. The person shared photos of the documents on a chat group with about two dozen active members, starting last year and continuing until March.'

I have seen other reports in which the person, OG, simply had to win an argument so leaked a load of stuff months ago within a small group. Other members of the group are quoted as saying the half wit is now crapping himself. He's a civilian contractor with access to secret stuff. Nothing leaked as a point of principle, just an idiot who had to win. Jail time matey. and lots of it.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... -joe-biden

[Mark]

Looks like they've got him:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65269975

It's very hard to keep anything secret in the modern 'tech' world.....
Sounds like this chap is a computer nerd type.... I know it's bad to generalise, but many computer nerds tend to be autistic too...

[UndercoverElephant]

Looks like they've got him:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65269975

It's very hard to keep anything secret in the modern 'tech' world.....
Sounds like this chap is a computer nerd type.... I know it's bad to generalise, but many computer nerds tend to be autistic too...

FWIW I still suspect this to be an elaborate misdirection. The story is entirely plausible, but I just don't believe it.

[kenneal - lagger]

WTF is a lowly Air National Guardsman in the arse hole of America doing having access to top secret documents about the war in Europe? Seems very strange to me!

[PS_RalphW]

This is normal in the US. Remember Snowden was a civilian contractor. This has all the hallmarks of stupid bravado by a local Baldrick. Do not underestimate the beaurocratic incompetence of the military, anywhere.

Embarrassing, and probably harmful to some extent to Ukraine, but very much a side show. In the 4 years I worked with the uk mod I was shown only one classified document, which was only classified because it exposed the level of stupidity displayed by service staff during a terrorist incident, and with the directive of Don’t Do This.

[PS_RalphW]

Reports that Ukraine may have recaptured 2 small towns on the the southern front overnight. This would be the ideal location for starting the spring offensive, but it might just be a probing attack which found little resistance. Either way, it suggests Ukraine still has some fight in it. We should know more soon.

This is the orthodox Easter weekend, so would catch a few Russians off guard.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 20295.html

Russian president Vladimir Putin has been urged to end the war in Ukraine by the head of the Wagner mercenary army deployed by the Kremlin.

Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed Russia had taken a “fat chunk” of Ukrainian territory and said president Putin should tell the world Russia has achieved the aims of its “special military operation,” in a video posted online on Friday night.

Mr Prigozhin also said Russian armed forces - who have suffered severe losses - should defend existing gains.

The Wagner mercenary chief also warned that the Russian people may seek a “scapegoat” for military failures as the war drags on, which could lead to revolutionary fervour.

In other words "Try to permanently hold on to what we've taken so far, or we might lose it."

[PS_RalphW]

Russia has again stopped inspections of Ukrainian grain shipments preventing export via the Black Sea. Multiple NATO nations have banned imports of UkraInian grain to protect domestic markets. This looks l8kely to be a point of economic discord in the allies which Russia is exploiting as much as it can, with the usual result of causing suffering and hunger to innocent people in third world countries.

Russian general reinstated into top war leadership role has patched up differences with Wagner, and is providing T90 tanks and proper military support to get the invasion of Bakhmut over with so that Russia can claim victory and (maybe a unilateral declaration of ceasefire?) so that any future fighting can be blamed on Ukraine, at least for domestic audiences.

[kenneal - lagger]

Russia declaring a ceasefire will just be laughed at and not acted on.

[PS_RalphW]

More reports that Ukraine is expanding probing attacks on the southern front at multiple locations as a precursor to a more major attack in the next 3 weeks. I have only found one blogger giving detailed descriptions as most seem to ignore this part of the line in their reports, presumably at the request of Ukraine not to discuss the counter offensive in their reports.

Russian use of heavy missile attacks in the area has increased, probably in an attempt to disrupt the developing campaign.

[kenneal - lagger]

"Reporting from Ukraine" reported on these probing attacks a couple of days ago although he hasn't mentioned anything since.

[PS_RalphW]

Ukraine reports that Russia has improved tactics in Bakhmut, and also reports elsewhere the Russians have moved to a defensive stance.

Russia now controls 80 to 90 % of Bakhmut, or the rubble that remains.

UK reports that Russian losses declined by a third in April, from 750 a day to only 500 a day. They still lost more men in one month than in 10 years in Afghanistan.

Ukraine reports significant success in its crossing of the the dnipro river in taking out Russian positions and equipment, although this is only ever going to be a side show in the coming offensive

South Africa is going to leave the Intenational Criminal Court so that Putin can attend the BRICS conference without being arrested.

[Mark]

South Africa is going to leave the International Criminal Court so that Putin can attend the BRICS conference without being arrested.

South Africa’s Ramaphosa says governing party wants ICC exit
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/2 ... s-icc-exit

Guess SA must be being bribed with cheap Russian Oil & Gas...
Perhaps we should threaten them with expulsion from the Commonwealth if they let Putin to visit unhindered....?
They need to decide which side their bread is buttered on...