Ukraine Watch...

[Vortex2]

We may see the introduction of truly autonomous drones who can select and attack targets without comms or GPS.

That is something out of a dystopian sci-fi story. I am having trouble believing it will work. Surely too easy to deceive such a thing into attacking a dummy target.

Sadly not.

A modern drone can carry 10+ bomblets.

If it dropped a bomblet on random infrared human sized targets, it would still hit one target per mission even if each soldier surrounded himself with several infrared decoys.

[PS_RalphW]

The UN reported that a Turkish military autonomous drone was used in the Libyan civil war a couple of years ago, although there is no evidence of it killing anyone. The technology is on the shelf and it will be used by someone somewhere.

[Mark]

A modern drone can carry 10+ bomblets.

If it dropped a bomblet on random infrared human sized targets, it would still hit one target per mission even if each soldier surrounded himself with several infrared decoys.

What a lovely world we live in....
Who says that they'll just be used to target soldiers ??

Imagine that Russia's #1 target is Zelensky, followed by other politicians, local leaders as well as the military, but they've also shown a liking for civilian infrastructure targets like railway stations, hospitals, schools, power plants, dams etc. etc....
Ukraine will probably continue to target Russian Generals, as Putin is too distant and well protected.., although they've also had successes with warships and bridges...

[UndercoverElephant]

We may see the introduction of truly autonomous drones who can select and attack targets without comms or GPS.

That is something out of a dystopian sci-fi story. I am having trouble believing it will work. Surely too easy to deceive such a thing into attacking a dummy target.

Sadly not.

A modern drone can carry 10+ bomblets.

If it dropped a bomblet on random infrared human sized targets, it would still hit one target per mission even if each soldier surrounded himself with several infrared decoys.

Eh? Why can't it hit 10+ decoys?

[clv101]

It's likely not possible to maintain a 10 to 1 decoy ratio.

[Catweazle]

The power of software to recognise targets is amazing, examples are face recognition in even cheap digital cameras, and extremely sophisticated "filters" in mobile phone apps. It's a trivial matter for a drone to fly over a field of targets, roam for a while, then drop a grenade on the target that has moved or changed since the last visit.

I think drones are more likely to be human controlled though, to select the most valuable targets.

[PS_RalphW]

Obviously human control is preferential to AI, but when a drone is jammed or spoofed into losing its gps location and human oversight, it could easily switch into autonomous mode, with the safeguards of already being over enemy territory. It could then use its internal inertial reference for guidance and sensors or video to look for targets. Also, if they get cheap enough, a swarm of a hundred drones could be autonomous or semi autonomous taking instructions from a few human guided members (see the displays of Chinese drone swarms at the olympics, etc.) A swarm that size would overwhelm any air defence setup. The US military is looking into the tech.

[Vortex2]

That is something out of a dystopian sci-fi story. I am having trouble believing it will work. Surely too easy to deceive such a thing into attacking a dummy target.

Sadly not.

A modern drone can carry 10+ bomblets.

If it dropped a bomblet on random infrared human sized targets, it would still hit one target per mission even if each soldier surrounded himself with several infrared decoys.

Eh? Why can't it hit 10+ decoys?

It can .. but statistically if there are several decoys per real target then one of the ten bomblets will hit a non-decoy.

[BritDownUnder]

I wonder if drones can recognize the famous "penis shaped door" that was mentioned by US forces in Afghanistan.

Maybe we have to look forward to the fields of Ukraine being the domain of autonomous hunter-killer drones and both armies keeping their heads down. I hope that farming undertaken by the Russians in the occupied areas of Ukraine also gets targeted to prevent them profiting from war booty. I could see tractors being destroyed by cheap drones and maybe crops getting sprayed by autonomous crop sprayers using defoliants.

[PS_RalphW]

The tractors in Ukraine are modern hi tech ones with remote reporting service data back to the manufacturer and gps tracking and some level of remote control already. Many were stolen and exported in the early days of the war and these reported back to base which then remotely bricked them.

[adam2]

This report states that russian troops are reduced to fighting with shovels. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64855760

[PS_RalphW]

The institute of war analysis is that Russia has exhausted its winter offensive for just a few miles gained in small parts of the front, and the job of taking Bakhmut. Is far from over, and has taken so long that Ukraine has had time to build strong defenses in the surrounding hills. Without more mobilisation and more equipment and ammunition, Russia will be in a poor place to defend against a spring Ukrainian counter attack.

Once again incompetent leadership is losing this war for Russia, destroying their military and killing countless thousands of people chasing an ultranationistic dream whose time has past.

Bakhmut could yet be Ukraine's Stalingrad.

[adam2]

Russian mercenary forces complain about shortage of ammunition and state that the front line, including Bakhmut could fall as a result.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64859780

[PS_RalphW]

The battle for Bakhmut seems to be becoming increasingly Orwellian in its undertones. Neither side can tactically justify the losses they are suffering, but there are three forces at play. The Russian side is largely being fought by the Wagner group, with cannon fodder convicts no one cares about and are happy to see die, but also experienced mercinaries as the supply of convicts was cut off by the Russian military to curtail Wagner's growing military and political strength. Now Wagner is also claiming that they are suffering ammunition shortages and blames the Russian military for setting them up to fail in Bakhmut. There are suggestions that this will strengthen Putin politically if Wagner are seen to fail, and this is also the West's preferred position in that Putin is seen as more moderate and less unpredictable than Wagner's owner, should he eventually otherthrow Putin. We may be in a position where Ukraine is being pressured by the US to keep defending Bakhmut even when withdrawal is the logical choice in order to change the policital balance of power in the Kremlin in favour of Putin. The risk is that Ukraine will lose enough military strength to threaten any spring counter offensive.

And then China might decide to join the game with weapons and ammunition supplies to Russia.

[Vortex2]

A modern drone can carry 10+ bomblets.

If it dropped a bomblet on random infrared human sized targets, it would still hit one target per mission even if each soldier surrounded himself with several infrared decoys.

What a lovely world we live in....
Who says that they'll just be used to target soldiers ??

Imagine that Russia's #1 target is Zelensky, followed by other politicians, local leaders as well as the military, but they've also shown a liking for civilian infrastructure targets like railway stations, hospitals, schools, power plants, dams etc. etc....
Ukraine will probably continue to target Russian Generals, as Putin is too distant and well protected.., although they've also had successes with warships and bridges...

FWIW the US has been making "signature strikes" from drones for some years.

This is where friends etc of known terrorists are killed by drones because they MIGHT be (or will become) terrorists themselves.

The attacks sadly kill many innocent civilians.