Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

If NATO plus Ukraine end up threatening major damage to the Russian nation, then we could soon see a nuclear exchange.

Russia has damaged itself by starting a war it cannot win. The nuclear threat is a bluff. Russia would be anihilated. Ukraine will win this war, this year, including the retaking of Crimea. Then Russia will be kicked out of the UN security council. The real winner here though is China.

I perceive some risk that russia will resort to nuclear weapons when facing defeat in a conventional war.
I do not think that nuclear weapons are LIKELY to be used, but do consider that the risk is greater than at any time in the recent past.

Suggest a review of this thread viewtopic.php?f=10&t=28140

[UndercoverElephant]

I perceive some risk that russia will resort to nuclear weapons when facing defeat in a conventional war.
I do not think that nuclear weapons are LIKELY to be used, but do consider that the risk is greater than at any time in the recent past.

That is almost trivially true. Yes, the risk is probably greater, but without being able to put absolute figures on the risk either now or in the recent past, there's not much we can extract from this statement.

Defeat in a conventional war is a lot less bad than being wiped off the map, and I think most of the Russians understand this very well. Putin himself may not care, since he is elderly, reputed not to be in the greatest of health, and his life will not be worth living when/if Russia is kicked out of Ukraine. But he cannot start a nuclear war on his own. He can't actually launch the missiles. He needs the apparatus of state to enact his will, and in this case my instincts are telling me that this won't happen.

We can't rule it out, but that has always been the case.

[Vortex2]

Caitlin Johnstone has dug up some interesting info about pre-war Ukraine.

(She writes the text, her husband reads it)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_kDbipTnJ4

[Vortex2]

Re nuclear weapons:

Some battlefield nukes are very small.

The risk is escalation in weapons size all the way up to the ICBMS.

[clv101]

Caitlin Johnstone has dug up some interesting info about pre-war Ukraine.

(She writes the text, her husband reads it)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_kDbipTnJ4

Ha, yes she Tweeted about that recently. The articles are still there. It simplistic but informative in just how propaganda works in the west.

[adam2]

The truck full of medical supplies to which I earlier referred has arrived safely and the contents much appreciated.
Carrying chairs in particular very needed.
An earlier appeal for folding or camp beds was answered by an American charity.

An aid group based in Poland have sent loads of small arms ammo.

[BritDownUnder]

Interesting two opinion articles there. I think you can get Pilger to disagree with any Western government if it gives him the exposure to sell another book. His lunatic views on the Skripal poisoning expressed to RT show what he is like deep down. Luckily most UK newspapers also publish the news as well as the ‘views’ of their left wing journalists. If these two want to publish their views in print they should buy a newspaper like the Russian oligarch did with the ‘Independent’.

I also struggle to see where all the fascists are in Ukraine and how they have been helped so much by the West. Listening to you two call people fascists is a bit like that character off of the Young Ones or some 1980s student union activist. It’s quite funny really.

[clv101]

Interesting two opinion articles there. I think you can get Pilger to disagree with any Western government if it gives him the exposure to sell another book. His lunatic views on the Skripal poisoning expressed to RT show what he is like deep down. Luckily most UK newspapers also publish the news as well as the ‘views’ of their left wing journalists. If these two want to publish their views in print they should buy a newspaper like the Russian oligarch did with the ‘Independent’.

The point isn't *who* wrote the articles but that those views got published by the main stream media a decade ago, these days not a chance. The individuals and their views probably haven't changed much, but the narratives presented by the media have changed.

[BritDownUnder]

Interesting two opinion articles there. I think you can get Pilger to disagree with any Western government if it gives him the exposure to sell another book. His lunatic views on the Skripal poisoning expressed to RT show what he is like deep down. Luckily most UK newspapers also publish the news as well as the ‘views’ of their left wing journalists. If these two want to publish their views in print they should buy a newspaper like the Russian oligarch did with the ‘Independent’.

The point isn't *who* wrote the articles but that those views got published by the main stream media a decade ago, these days not a chance. The individuals and their views probably haven't changed much, but the narratives presented by the media have changed.

Well in that case one must surely congratulate the Grauniad for no longer publishing blatant anti-Western opinion pieces from pro-Russian lunatics. Turning the tables there is very little pro-Western or anti-Putin propaganda published in Russian media because the authors tend to get poisoned or murdered. As far as I know Mr Pilger is still very much alive and well but perhaps somewhat more restricted these days in where he can publish his anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian prose.

[kenneal - lagger]

..........................

Well in that case one must surely congratulate the Grauniad for no longer publishing blatant anti-Western opinion pieces from pro-Russian lunatics. Turning the tables there is very little pro-Western or anti-Putin propaganda published in Russian media because the authors tend to get poisoned or murdered. As far as I know Mr Pilger is still very much alive and well but perhaps somewhat more restricted these days in where he can publish his anti-Western and anti-Ukrainian prose.

I agree fully with that and it is something which Russia's apologists completely ignore.

You could also usefully add exiled to poisoned and murdered although many of those exiled have also been poisoned and murdered. There have been journalists murdered in the west but that tends to be by the extremist groups that they have been investigating or criticising rather than by the government. I can't think of any group of journalists who have sought refuge in Russia.

[BritDownUnder]

I notice the two of the Russian apologists have disappeared from the forum recently. Default options and whatever the other one was called? Still a few around though.

[clv101]

Wonder what became of Lord Beria3?

[UndercoverElephant]

Re nuclear weapons:

Some battlefield nukes are very small.

The risk is escalation in weapons size all the way up to the ICBMS.

It is clear line (nuke or not), and the Russians would be very stupid if they cross it and don't expect that NATO will respond with an appropriate escalation. NATO is not going to allow Russia to change the course of this war from defeat to victory by crossing that line. Doing so would be an open invitation for Russia to widen the conflict -- game theory says NATO has to escalate. Bottom line is that the higher the escalation goes, the greater the damage to Russia. Yes, Russia can hurt NATO countries, but in an all-out confrontation between NATO and Russia, the only winner is going to be NATO. "Mutally assured destruction" no longer applies. Russia cannot destroy NATO, but NATO can destroy Russia.

[invalid]

Wonder what became of Lord Beria3?

He had his own blog, which he used to update now and then. He also used to comment on Greer's blog from time to time. For all I know, he's probably still doing this, in fact!

[clv101]

Oh yeah: https://forecastingintelligence.org/