Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

Some onLine commentators a suggesting this retreat is orchestrated as part of a ceasefire deal with the US, and presumably the Ukrainian leadership, to allow the bulk of the Russian forces to escape without being routed, in preparation for peace talks where Ukraine gives up significant territory. Talk of military traps and rearguard defences are cover story for the Ukrainian forces advancing slowly to let Russians escape.

On the whole I think this is very unlikely. Ukraine does seem to be advancing rapidly, and Russia almost never honours any deal or ceasefire, whether open or secret, in any war. I cannot image Ukraine agreeing to any such process, even if the US might. The next few days should lift some of this fog. Also the hydroelectric dam is an interesting one, I do not think either side would blow it, because it would flood the East Bank mostly, which would cause many Russian casualties, as well as many Ukrainian ones, and would further damage The Ukrainian power supply.

(edited by KN-L from West to East Bank)

[UndercoverElephant]

Some onLine commentators a suggesting this retreat is orchestrated as part of a ceasefire deal with the US, and presumably the Ukrainian leadership, to allow the bulk of the Russian forces to escape without being routed, in preparation for peace talks where Ukraine gives up significant territory. Talk of military traps and rearguard defences are cover story for the Ukrainian forces advancing slowly to let Russians escape.

On the whole I think this is very unlikely. Ukraine does seem to be advancing rapidly, and Russia almost never honours any deal or ceasefire, whether open or secret, in any war. I cannot image Ukraine agreeing to any such process, even if the US might. The next few days should lift some of this fog. Also the hydroelectric dam is an interesting one, I do not think either side would blow it, because it would flood the West Bank mostly, which would cause many Russian casualties, as well as many Ukrainian ones, and would further damage The Ukrainian power supply.

It is complete nonsense. Ukraine wants Crimea back. Why would it agree to give up territory at this point in the proceedings?

[adam2]

I agree that Ukraine is most unlikely to agree to any loss of territory, including Crimea. Especially whilst Ukraine appear to be winning the war.

That however may not tell the whole story, I consider it likely that the USA, the UN and other third parties may be hopeful that THEY can arrange a negotiated peace. "Vote for me/us we avoided in nuclear conflict in Europe"

Russia would no doubt prefer to keep part of Ukraine over being kicked out of all the invaded territory.

Ukraine would hope to kick russia out entirely.

[PS_RalphW]

Russia claims the retreat from Kherson is complete. The Antonov ski bridge is reported blown. Widespread reports of panic and confusion in Russian units, some of which were not informed of the withdrawal, others being told to abandon their uniforms and escape any way they can. Wound soldiers left behind.

A day or two will clarify the situation, but I expect thousands of raw conscripts have been abandoned to their fate, along with a lot of antique hardware and ammunition. Heavier hardware may have been destroyed before abandonment.

There are reports of Ukrainian soldiers in the city

[RevdTess]

So many moving parts in any peace deal.

How does each side value Donbas, Crimea, Ukrainian Neutrality, Russian Regime change, just being at peace, 3rd party treaties to prevent a recurrence? How much war exhaustion and loss of manpower is each side experiencing? To what extent do Ukrainian gains make them less likely to agree anything except complete Russian withdrawal at the moment?

How does each side view the likelihood of support for Ukraine from the EU, UK and most importantly the US declining over the next year? Would a Republican-led congress (or the threat of a Republican president) mean Ukraine will need to get out of the war sooner rather than later?

I've no idea how all this plays out. I doubt Ukraine is going to have the time or backing to get all its territory back, but I also doubt Russia will be able to demilitarise Ukraine or prevent peace being guaranteed by other nations. Still can't see Ukraine being able to join NATO even if it gives up Donbas and Crimea forever, but it could get into the EU.

[UndercoverElephant]

So many moving parts in any peace deal.

How does each side value Donbas, Crimea, Ukrainian Neutrality, Russian Regime change, just being at peace, 3rd party treaties to prevent a recurrence? How much war exhaustion and loss of manpower is each side experiencing? To what extent do Ukrainian gains make them less likely to agree anything except complete Russian withdrawal at the moment?

How does each side view the likelihood of support for Ukraine from the EU, UK and most importantly the US declining over the next year? Would a Republican-led congress (or the threat of a Republican president) mean Ukraine will need to get out of the war sooner rather than later?

I've no idea how all this plays out. I doubt Ukraine is going to have the time or backing to get all its territory back, but I also doubt Russia will be able to demilitarise Ukraine or prevent peace being guaranteed by other nations. Still can't see Ukraine being able to join NATO even if it gives up Donbas and Crimea forever, but it could get into the EU.

I don't see how a peace deal is possible. Crimea just too strategically important for either side to be willing to give it up as part of a deal. I guess it might be possible if Ukraine has taken back Crimea by force and Russia still occupies some territory in the Donbas, that Ukraine might settle for a loss of territory there.

[kenneal - lagger]

The only way that I can see a peace deal acceptable to Ukraine working long term is for there to be a UN or NATO presence on the Russia/Ukraine border so that Russia would have to be willing to start a war with the whole world if it invaded. Otherwise the Russians will just come back for more in five or ten years.

[PS_RalphW]

I suspect Ukraine did agree to hold back in Kherson and not attack the retreating troops in order to save the city from further destruction. The news blackout on the Ukrainian side was to cover their inaction.

[kenneal - lagger]

Lets just hope that the Russians don't just blow the place apart in a fit of revenge which has been their way so far in this war. The Russian artillery on the left bank of the river would be very exposed to the very accurate counter battery fire of the Ukrainians though as a lot of that bank is just sand dunes. according to Denis on YouTube.

The other danger is the Russians using a tactical nuke on the area now that their troops are out of the way.

[PS_RalphW]

The bbc is showing video of a large explosion at the Nova Khakovka dam, presumably by the Russians as they left. It is not clear if the intention was to breach the dam and flood Kherson, or just sever the road over it. Also, it is unknown how much damage the dam has suffered. As it is now the front line, it will be difficult to inspect and impossible to repair. It is not clear if the hydroelectric plant survived.

[RenewableCandy]

Hello everyone I'm back. I got C19-ed for a couple of weeks.
I'd like to interest you in this piece by a Russian commentator and adviser to Putin.
Basically they want to wipe Ukraine off the map, to the point of (remember Mr Orlov?) 'cultural collapse'. No language, no history, no trajectory of culture.
This is his 'recipe' for carrying that out.

So anyone trying to compare this with Iraq/Afghanistan (where we were in the wrong), or who is worried about Ukraine's treatment of Russian speakers in the Donbas (many people, there & elsewhere in Ukraine, speak Russian but have always been happier being part of Ukraine), please read on - it puts the whole thing in perspective. This is not Ukrainian propaganda: this is (via a slightly clunky translation) Russia's own words.

https://uacrisis.org/en/justification-o ... s-a-nation

Denazification can only be carried out by the winner, which implies (1) his absolute control over the denazification process and (2) the power to ensure such control. In this respect, a de-nazified country cannot be sovereign. The denazifying state – Russia – cannot proceed from a liberal approach with regard to denazification. The ideology of the denazifier cannot be disputed by the guilty party subjected to denazification.

The sad irony is that Ukraine is the origin of a lot of what we in the West know as 'Russian' culture: everything from the Kyivan Rus to Tchaikovsky.

Before all this started I was inclined to think Ukraine joining NATO would be a bit much. Now... well let's just say I *do* occasionally change my mind about things. Marvellous Other Half, btw, has known about this strand of thought in Russia for ages.

[kenneal - lagger]

Do they actually believe all that crap!! I got about half way through before stopping as its just so much rubbish.

It's Ministry of Truth type stuff where if you turn the arguments around 180 degrees you get somewhere near the truth. I have said before that if you replace Russia with Ukraine in most of these diatribes you get some where near what is required and this one is no different. The Nazis are in Russia and Putin is the new Hitler and the author of that diatribe is the new Goebbels.

The only way that there can be lasting peace for Ukraine is to have a third party, UN or probably NATO, trip wire on the border as Russia can't be trusted for several generation s not to invade on some jumped up pretence again. As the diatribe author said about Ukraine, Russia needs to be thoroughly re-educated after the Hitlerian scale of propaganda that the population, and especially the children, have been subjected to in recent years.

The worry is that in countries such a Latvia there are populations of ethnic Russians who listen to Russian TV and believe all the bs that Putin puts out. The other worry is that there are people in the US who believe the bs that Trump spews out as well. I suppose that if Trump gets in there will be no chance of a nuclear war because he will withdraw support and let Putin get his way in Ukraine. The problem then comes onto the shoulders of Europe because after a few years to recuperate he will be back for Eastern Europe and then probably Western Europe as well. I am seriously considering contributing to election funds for the Democrats in the US!

[RenewableCandy]

Marvellous Other Half still has family in Russia. I can assure you that there are people (not them afaIk) who genuinely believe this bilge.
At least, there are people in the government who are acting on it.
And as for ordinary people, any even oblique mention of the obvious fact of its being bilge gets you thrown in the slammer for years.
People are just getting on with their daily lives I'm afraid, because there's bog-all else anyone, as an individual or family, can do about it.

However, many top pro-war commentators have not hesitated to comment upon how badly it's going and what Putin is doing wrong. One has even, albeit in a very oblique turn of phrase, suggested they'd be better off wothout him.

There is a bitter Russian-type joke about how you can't comment either in favour or against the withdrawal from Kherson. Comment in favour and you're proposing violating Russia's territorial integrity (penal code 230 pt 1) - because they've declared the district a part of Russia. Comment against, and you're slagging-off the Armed Forces (I forget the technical term but it's in Penal code 230, part 3).

His cousin (Ukrainian, staying with us - MOH's actually 1/2-Ukrainian) has just come back from a flying visit to Kyiv - urgent family business. I'll ask her a bit about it at some suitable time.

[UndercoverElephant]

The bbc is showing video of a large explosion at the Nova Khakovka dam, presumably by the Russians as they left. It is not clear if the intention was to breach the dam and flood Kherson, or just sever the road over it. Also, it is unknown how much damage the dam has suffered. As it is now the front line, it will be difficult to inspect and impossible to repair. It is not clear if the hydroelectric plant survived.

Looks like it is to sever the road and rail link. Explosions are all at the top of the dam. The power plant is obviously out of action until the front line is somewhere else.

[Vortex2]

People are just getting on with their daily lives I'm afraid, because there's bog-all else anyone, as an individual or family, can do about it.

Welcome to Britain in 2022.

What can any of us REALLY do when fighting the rich and powerful?