Brexit process

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fuzzy
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Post by fuzzy »

careful_eugene wrote:
fuzzy wrote:
careful_eugene wrote: Why do you think that leaving will hardly disadvantage many? If on March 29th we leave without an agreement there will be no transition and all current arrangements with the EU will, in theory, cease to exist (I suspect some things like use of airspace will just continue anyway). Any business that imports from or exports to the EU will be affected. Depending on the level and duration of disruption this could mean job losses for ordinary people.
The only thing I buy from the EU [indirectly - Aldi does it without asking me] is unconventional fruit from Spain. This is delivered in double tanked HGVs that do not buy any UK fuel. I may pay slightly more for tomatoes from who knows - big deal. If I was young, I might notice that 1/4 million people not arriving lowers my rent, or gives me or my children a job, or gives me a pay rise to persuade me not exercise my employment choice.

Explain to me what I am missing?
A no deal brexit may not affect you personally, but previously you stated that it would hardly disadvantage many. I believe it will affect lots of people who work for companies that import from or export to the EU if those companies experience difficulties after brexit. For what it's worth I agree with some of your points, fewer people coming in to the country could lower rent or mean more jobs for people already here but any future trade deals with non-EU countries are likely to include easier access anyway so I don't see immigration levels coming down soon. Immigration from non EU countries is currently at a high point https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statis ... statistics
Well your own URL says that immigration from the EU is 219000

The fact that 145000 emigrated to the EU, not out of desperation, but because almost everywhere else is better than the affordable parts of the uk, is not a good thing for the UK. It is a loss of taxes and spending wages and welfare in the UK. It is also money travelling overseas by emigrants and by them selling their cheap housing at top of the market. A lot of this is bought overseas by investors/landlords or by UK banks etc through shell management, all of which is pushing up the pound by deflating the UK money supply. This makes the UK ever less capable of exporting run of the mill production and employing people. So let's add the 219000 and 145000 together = 364000 That's how much we were [officially] in the crap in 2018 due to EU migration.
I have said this many times. We were not given a vote on immigration in the 80 years the gov has pursued this policy. So this is what happens.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

That is actually a really badly-written and overcomplicated article. I am not convinced of its conclusion either. There is still sufficient time for parliament to stop no deal and implement a long A50 extension. It is also possible that the EU will, after all, capitulate on the backstop. The Irish government is certainly coming to the conclusion that it may have overplayed its hand, and that agreeing to an exit mechanism to the backstop may be preferable to their current policy, which may well lead to no deal.

Many outcomes are still possible. These votes on the 12th/13th/14th are crucial.
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

Mark wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:One of the reasons I voted leave was to make it easier to ban glyphosate

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -of-cancer

A better chance when we only have 330 MP'S to persuade.
HSE to replace EU chemicals agency in a no-deal Brexit:
https://www.endsreport.com/article/6110 ... eal-brexit


NGO CHEM Trust is “very concerned� about the focus on the HSE, given that “they don’t have adequate environmental expertise & commitment. They are also not involved in public health,� said executive director Michael Warhurst. The guidance for pesticides states: “In a no-deal scenario the UK would not be legally committed to medium or long-term regulatory alignment with the EU. Divergence from developing EU legislation would be possible in due course.� Given time, this could see the EU ban pesticides that will remain in place in the UK, or the HSE approving new pesticides and formulations that will not be permitted in the EU. At the same time, it adds: “The technical requirements of the regime would remain the same as they are in current EU legislation, maintaining existing standards of environmental and health protections.� Among such pesticides could be glyphosate. Although Brussels has given the world’s most commonly used weedkiller the thumps up after it was linked to cancer, some member states favoured a ban when its authorisation was discussed last year. In contrast, the agricultural and horticultural lobby opposed the move, with environment minister Thérèse Coffey describing glyphosate as “amazing� in August.

The EU is split glyphosate....., UK politicians are also split on glyphosate.....
I don't see the outcome/debate being very different whether we're 'in' or 'out'.....
UK REACH database may not be ready for Brexit:
https://www.endsreport.com/article/6224 ... for-brexit

Environment minister Thérèse Coffey has told parliament that the IT system underpinning the UK’s post-Brexit regulation of chemicals may not be complete for 29 March. Speaking yesterday evening, ahead of a vote on the statutory instrument (SI) to establish a UK version of the EU’s REACH Regulation, she said that the database is still being tested and that fallback plans may need to be activated. “I will be candid with the House. We will make a call this week on whether the system is ready to go live or whether we will have to do our contingency plan of companies providing that information to us. I don’t have that information ready as that assessment has not been made,� Coffey said. The minister gave the first estimate of the running costs for the new system, to be operated by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). She claimed it would be £13m per year, in contrast to ECHA’s £80m per year. However, the figure appears to be a reference to the body’s €80.4m budgeted income from fees and charges for 2018, rather than its €116m (£100m) overall budget.

The HSE is currently recruiting 35 staff to administer UK-REACH. The Environment Agency is also recruiting an additional ten staff to work on chemicals regulation. The two form the EU REACH competent authority in England. Despite being heavily criticised during a sparsely-attended debate yesterday evening, the draft REACH etc (Amendment etc) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 passed the commons by 297 votes to 240. Under parliament’s affirmative procedure for secondary legislation, it must also be passed by the Lords in order to become law. The vote was held just after news broke of Labour’s commitment to support a second referendum on Brexit and the growing likelihood that the Commons will prevent a no-deal Brexit. Opening the debate, Coffey said that the legislation was “not about changing policy� but about having something that works in case the UK does crash out of the EU without a deal. Although the law is long, at 64 pages, she insisted that the law makes no changes to policy. She said that the aim of becoming an ‘associate member’ of ECHA was still being pursued and that, whatever happens, the UK will still continue to learn from the EU regulator in the future. But Coffey gave no update on whether this aim was any closer to being achieved, after EU negotiators ruled it out last year. The minister offered no confirmation that the HSE would replicate EU regulatory decisions in the future. However, she stated that Brexit presents “an opportunity to move more quickly� than the EU as some member states had prevented restrictions being imposed that the UK supported. Doing so would be a judgment call for the HSE, the Commons heard.

Shadow environment secretary Sue Hayman said the draft law was “unworkable�. “Labour believes that continued participation in REACH is the surest way to avoid extra costs and burden on business, to save jobs and protect animal welfare, health and safety and the environment,� she told the house. “The prudent thing would be to take this SI back to the drawing board�. Hayman took particular issue with the resources available to the HSE to administer the new system, considering that its budget fell by 40% over 2010-2017, noting that there is no confirmation of funding in the SI. The draft law also “removes layers of supporting committees� – namely the member state, socio-economic analysis and risk assessment committees, she observed. These “important democratic oversight mechanisms are being lost� said her colleague Mary Creagh, chair of the Environmental Audit Committee. This will lead to “rule by fiat rather than by discussion� and downgraded environmental protections, she said. In addition, the law would not stop ministers from disregarding HSE advice when deciding on restrictions and authorisations. “We know that the secretary of state is notoriously no fan of experts but he may have gone too far in asking us to grant him powers to override recommendations from the HSE,� said Hayman.

The issue of access to the data needed to populate the database arose, too. Full registrations will need to be completed within two years of exit but many companies do not have the required data, often as ownership lies with another party under a substance information exchange forum deal. With a quarter of registrants in this boat and no guarantee that they will be able to negotiate access in good time, meeting the deadline “is an almost impossible and extremely costly task� said Hayman. The House of Lords, campaigners, trade unions and the chemical industry have also criticised the REACH SI.
stumuz1
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Post by stumuz1 »

Spent the day at the HSE EU Exit Event for chemicals, held at Chester racecourse, yesterday.

We spent the day discussing;

No deal or deal.

90% of the discussions was about no-deal.

To precis, most legislation in place. HSE giving a grace period of 180 days from any leave date to get basic information to them, with two years for full data sets.

From around the room, most EU facing companies have OR's in place and some have caused a bit of a stir (always knew they would! by appointing the importer/frieght-forwarder in the EU country as an OR.Simples)

UK facing companies- No change, fee free grandfather rights on registrations.

Safety data sheets- no change

Speaking off the record to the Downing street policy head for chemicals.

Me. " We're going to set up a parallel system with ECHA diverting when it suits us, aren't we.

Policy wonk. " Cannot comment.

Me. " It makes sense, we let ECHA do all the structure planning, monitoring, and organisation development with all the costs, and we simply mirror and diverge in exceptional cases"

Policy wonk. "I cannot confirm or deny" he said with a smile.

So there we have it in a nutshell.

Deal = Nothing changes.

No deal= Nothing changes except OR's appointed in an EU country, which is mostly done.
stumuz1
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Post by stumuz1 »

Also, had a lovely and lively debate over our tax payer funded lunch with a French regulatory manager of a Manchester chemical plant. Who pinned Brexit firmly on racism.

Huguenots, French Jews, velodrome round up was unleashed which quickly brought any discussion on racism to an end.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vel%27_d%27Hiv_Roundup
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

stumuz1 wrote:Spent the day at the HSE EU Exit Event for chemicals, held at Chester racecourse, yesterday.

We spent the day discussing;

No deal or deal.

90% of the discussions was about no-deal.

To precis, most legislation in place. HSE giving a grace period of 180 days from any leave date to get basic information to them, with two years for full data sets.

From around the room, most EU facing companies have OR's in place and some have caused a bit of a stir (always knew they would! by appointing the importer/frieght-forwarder in the EU country as an OR.Simples)

UK facing companies- No change, fee free grandfather rights on registrations.

Safety data sheets- no change

Speaking off the record to the Downing street policy head for chemicals.

Me. " We're going to set up a parallel system with ECHA diverting when it suits us, aren't we.

Policy wonk. " Cannot comment.

Me. " It makes sense, we let ECHA do all the structure planning, monitoring, and organisation development with all the costs, and we simply mirror and diverge in exceptional cases"

Policy wonk. "I cannot confirm or deny" he said with a smile.

So there we have it in a nutshell.

Deal = Nothing changes.

No deal= Nothing changes except OR's appointed in an EU country, which is mostly done.
10 things you need to know about DEFRA’s post-Brexit REACH chemical regulations:
https://www.endsreport.com/article/6226 ... egulations
The government claims that its replacement for the EU’s REACH system entails no change in policy. Others beg to differ.
ENDS has put together a list of everything you need to know about the government’s plans for chemicals regulations after the UK leaves the EU.

1 The new registration database may not be ready in time
During the contentious debate last week that saw the draft REACH etc (Amendment etc) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019 approved by the Commons, environment minister Thérèse Coffey said that the database of REACH registration data may not be ready to accept uploads from users in the event of a no-deal Brexit on 29 March. If so, contingency arrangements will be put in place, she said. “A functioning REACH IT system will be critical given the extremely short time-frames introduced to submit information on chemicals to the Health and Safety Executive� said the Chemical Industry Association (CIA).

2 Deadlines will be tough to meet
Parties wishing to place chemicals on the UK market after Brexit will need to provide all the data they have given to ECHA within two years of exit. Around a quarter of REACH registrants cannot do so immediately as their ownership lies with others, with access arranged via a substance information exchange forum. Negotiating access and amending contracts over this period will both a challenging and expensive task, according to both the association and shadow environment minister Sue Hayman. It is conceivable that animal tests may need to be conducted again, despite being a last resort.

3 Coffey’s ‘copy and paste’ approach has been abandoned
Last summer, Coffey proposed that the government could simply download the database maintained by the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). This would avoid the burden of having to replicate its content manually. But legal concerns about the ownership of intellectual property and the agency’s own insistence that such a move would be unlawful have led it to be quietly ditched. Hopes that the UK could obtain a form of associate membership of ECHA, which has no basis in law, have also faded.

4 Grandfathering will apply to some registrants
Around 12,000 REACH registrations for 5,700 chemicals registered by UK firms will be registered automatically. A third of them are in the lowest tonnage band, which entered regulation under REACH last May. Between 50 and 100 new registrations expected to be made each year.

5 There may be import problems
Foreign exporters will have to register with the HSE manually. The draft REACH statutory instrument (SI) does not make transitional arrangements for chemicals currently imported into the UK via non-UK suppliers registered via an only representative firm. This could constrain manufacturers’ access to vital substances, says the CIA.

6 Advice and oversight could be degraded
The statutory instrument strips away layers of oversight and advisory mechanisms. A reference to ECHA’s management board has been removed, with the HSE’s exiting board presumably taking on the same role. Its last meeting in December did not even mention chemical regulation, as the HSE has far broader duties. There is no equivalent to the Committee for Risk Assessment, which prepares regulatory opinions on risks relating to human health or the environment. References to the Committee for Socio-economic Analysis, which weighs up social pros and cons, have been removed from the bill, as has the Member State Committee which resolves differences of opinion on new measures. In their place, the regulation states that “When forming opinions the [HSE] must take relevant scientific knowledge and advice into account (including any relevant knowledge and advice relating to socioeconomic matters).� The HSE will determine what this means in practice. CHEM Trust Brexit campaigner Kate Young described the amendment as offering “completely insufficient stakeholder participation.� Environmental Audit Committee chair Mary Creagh said there would be “no committees of experts, or other committees, to take these registrations into account and help the agency to form its opinions�. This may not be entirely the case in practice, however. Though unnamed in the SI, DEFRA’s Hazardous Substances Advisory Committee would be expected to provide informal oversight.

7 A ministerial power grab could be on the cards
The current REACH Regulation requires the European Commission to take account of the Member State Committee’s view when making decisions on authorisations – that is, permission to use an otherwise banned substance. The SI offers no such duty on government to have regard to the HSE’s view. Instead, the final decision will be taken by the secretary of state. Michael Gove “may have gone too far in asking us to grant him powers to override recommendations from the HSE,� said Hayman.

8 How the UK system will be funded is unclear
UK-REACH will cost around £13m to operate each year, to be spent largely on staffing at DEFRA, the HSE and the Environment Agency. The estimate, agreed between the three, is much smaller than ECHA’s average budget of £80m or so since 2011. DEFRA said that the difference can partly be attributed to one covering the UK and the other the entire EU. But the SI makes no reference to this budget or guarantee of appropriate funding, earning criticism from Green MP Caroline Lucas. She highlighted that the HSE had seen a 40% budget cut over 2010-17.

9 Separate systems may lead to regulatory divergence
The SI does not commit to ensuring that UK-REACH follows decisions made under EU-REACH, so rules on chemicals may deviate over time and complicate cross-border compliance. Dave Bench, the HSE director responsible for chemicals regulation, said that EU decisions would have to be considered in terms of their appropriateness for the UK. “Having the same framework doesn’t mean that there won’t be different decisions,� he explained. “Some of these dossiers are enormously complex, it’s almost unimaginable that two sets of very competent experts would come to the same conclusion, it’s just not likely. So there will be divergence if we are in a no-deal scenario and that divergence will happen almost straight away,� he said.

10 Rolls-Royce is worried about downstream authorisations
Last week’s debate revealed that Rolls-Royce has concerns about the SI. “What is of particular interest is the continued downstream use in the UK of substances where an upstream applicant in the EU is awaiting an authorization decision,� said a spokesman. “We believe that improvements to the 2019 statutory instrument are needed to ensure that an appropriate use of chemicals can continue,� he told ENDS. These have not been forthcoming. The company’s concerns relate to the use of certain paints containing chromium (VI), a carcinogen. Since 22 January, dichromium tris(chromate), pentazinc chromate octahydroxide, potassium hydroxyoctaoxodizincatedichromate and strontium chromate have all required authorisation from the commission. A week before the deadline, the commission’s REACH Committee agreed to grant 36 authorisations to firms in the automotive, aerospace and other sectors, giving them up to seven years to find alternatives. The committee also took the unprecedented decision to reject a proposed authorisation for sodium dichromate for the treatment of surgical instruments. However, another 36 remain to be resolved – including one for Rolls Royce. If it is not resolved before Brexit, the firm will have to repeat the application process with the HSE, a lengthy and disruptive prospect. The SI has not yet become law. It will need to be passed by the House of Lords before it enters the statute book.

Make your own minds up folks....
Last edited by Mark on 08 Mar 2019, 15:29, edited 1 time in total.
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Mark
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Post by Mark »

stumuz1 wrote:Also, had a lovely and lively debate over our tax payer funded lunch with a French regulatory manager of a Manchester chemical plant. Who pinned Brexit firmly on racism.

Huguenots, French Jews, velodrome round up was unleashed which quickly brought any discussion on racism to an end.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vel%27_d%27Hiv_Roundup
I don't think any country has 'clean hands' on that front.....
You need to be very sure of your ground before professing to be 'Holier than Thou'....
stumuz1
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Post by stumuz1 »

Mark wrote:
1 The new registration database may not be ready in time
120/180 day grace period, then two years. No bigee
Mark wrote: 2 Deadlines will be tough to meet
See above


Mark wrote: 3 Coffey’s ‘copy and paste’ approach has been abandoned
We are creating a parallel system. Nothing has changed. Sief's still own the data.

Mark wrote: 4 Grandfathering will apply to some registrants
Granfathering will apply to all UK registrants. No fee included.

EU companies will need to pay to re-register. No registration= no market. Simple
Mark wrote: 5 There may be import problems
See 1 above. Most EU importers to the UK are appointing UK OR's!!!!
What is sauce for the goose!

Mark wrote: 6 Advice and oversight could be degraded
What, only the EU can do oversight? Really?
Mark wrote: 7 A ministerial power grab could be on the cards
Temporary, 'till the dust settles
Mark wrote: 8 How the UK system will be funded is unclear
The system will be paid for by the registrants. As per ECHA now. The last registration I did (not part of a sief) £67K. Did you think ECHA was a charity, or did you think the taxpayer picked up the tab for registering dodgy chemicals?
Mark wrote: 9 Separate systems may lead to regulatory divergence
The SI does not commit to ensuring that UK-REACH follows decisions made under EU-REACH, so rules on chemicals may deviate over time
Duh.
Mark wrote: 10 Rolls-Royce is worried about downstream authorisations
If the commission has granted exemptions, then those exemptions are now and on leaving day part of UK law.

Mark, you are still posting half the internet of what other people have said. It is quite clear this is going over your head. No offence. 99.9% of the UK/EU public have not got a clue about chemical regulation.

How are you getting on with the UN book on toxicity ? Still think toxicity is determined by the EU?
stumuz1
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Post by stumuz1 »

Mark wrote:
stumuz1 wrote:Also, had a lovely and lively debate over our tax payer funded lunch with a French regulatory manager of a Manchester chemical plant. Who pinned Brexit firmly on racism.

Huguenots, French Jews, velodrome round up was unleashed which quickly brought any discussion on racism to an end.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vel%27_d%27Hiv_Roundup
I don't think any country has 'clean hands' on that front.....
You need to be very sure of your ground before professing to be 'Holier than Thou'....
I think our moral standing on racism is as good as it gets.
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Lord Beria3
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Post by Lord Beria3 »

This will cheer you up Little John...

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html
A hard-Brexit scenario

The big difficulty we and all other analysts have with Brexit is that none of us really knows what is going on inside Theresa May's head. The few accounts we have read that claim to have special cerebral insights contradict each other. A second-best strategy is to rely on her revealed preferences. She has changed her views many times, but has been doggedly persistently in her strategy of running down the clock.

So, how about this version of a hard Brexit? Next week's votes go as expected. The meaningful vote is another No - with a smaller margin. It will be followed by two meaningless votes the following day on whether to take no-deal off the table and whether to ask for an extension. Of course, MPs will take no-deal off the imaginary table, and of course they will want to extend. By the end of next week, Brexit will be 14 days away.

14 is an important number. It takes 14 days for parliament to replace a prime minister through a vote of no-confidence. Come Friday evening next week, May can do pretty much whatever she likes. After she won the Tory leadership contest in December, neither the Tory Party nor the House of Commons have any tools to stop a no-deal Brexit. 14 days is also not enough time to pass legislation without government support.

Now assume the following sequence of events. May will announce a final attempt to rescue the deal. She will make another proposal to discuss Brexit at or around the summit - which starts eight days before Brexit. The goal is to confront everybody with a choice between a revised deal or a crash.

We admit that this sounds cold-blooded. The Cooper amendment would have prevented that course of action. But May would still be acting, at least formally, in accordance with the outcome of next week's vote. She does not have to ask for an extension until 10.59pm UK time on March 29. And, by tabling a third meaningful vote, she would have given parliament a final chance to comply with its own wish to take no-deal off the table.

It is possible that she may confront the European Council with an ultimatum on the backstop. In this context we noted a small story about industrial action by French customs officials, who are warning of huge queues in case of a no-deal Brexit, and who are saying that the French government has made inadequate preparations. As ever the protests also have a lot to do with working conditions, but we would agree with the overall assertion that the EU is just as unprepared for no-deal as the UK. The Federation of German Industry, one of the cheerleaders of the European Commission's approach to the Brexit negotiations, noted with horror that a quarter of German companies responded in a survey that they are planning job cuts as a result of a hard Brexit.

Again, we don't know what is going on in May's head. But if she wanted to she could deliver a hard Brexit on March 29, or blackmail the European Council, the House of Commons or both to back her deal, followed by a very short technical extension.

This is not a prediction. But we consider this scenario more plausible than a long extension, let alone a second referendum. In short any option that relies on non-existing political majorities. And it is consistent with what we know.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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Vortex2
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Post by Vortex2 »

OK, I'll admit that I haven't ploughed through the hundreds of pages of BREXIT comments here.

However the following may be of slight interest:

* A food importer has told me that all warehouse storage in the UK is FULL .. no more to be had.

* The stock in warehouses is damaging firms' cash-flow. Also, if these stocks turn out to be not needed then we will see massive 'fire sales' to clear these warehouses. That won't help the firms or the economy.

* A fresh food importer told me that they are worried : maybe 80% of their imports are on the back of lorries with NO en route warehouse storage involved. What will happen on the 29th March?

* Apparently some firms have 6-week delivery times for imports / exports. They have switched to 'holiday mode' with no shipments, at great expense because they don't know what tariffs will apply when the goods arrive.

* Several Eastern Europeans I know are very peeved and have postponed plans to buy houses etc.

* Other Eastern Europeans I know have rapidly converted to becoming "British"

* Practically everyone I know voted Leave and is now VERY angry. Civil unrest could be a possibility in the event of a BREXIT fudge. Certainly all respect for politicians and the State has been lost. Britain will pay for that long term. The current political 2-party first-past-the-post system is also under threat.

* It seems that firms are setting up 'parallel' import / export routes. This may protect them against BREXIT. However this process will also have taught many firms that they can work around State restrictions. This will damage Britain long term.

* The current mayhem is fertile ground for the arrival of an extremist party.

* Consumers are holding back on non-critical purchases, as they wait to see what 29th March brings. This means that many firms have seen almost no customers since around 1st Jan and maybe several weeks earlier.

* A BREXIT delay would severely damage all those firms who are waiting for tariff and tax data ... you can't maintain businesses in 'idle mode' indefinitely.

* The London / Rest Of The UK divide is severe and will take years to heal.

Overall, we are so stuffed ... and the soft handed, lily livered, well off, privileged elite in Westminster are the ones to blame.

Life is about to get very difficult.
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UndercoverElephant
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Post by UndercoverElephant »

Lord Beria3 wrote:This will cheer you up Little John...

https://www.eurointelligence.com/public.html
A hard-Brexit scenario

The big difficulty we and all other analysts have with Brexit is that none of us really knows what is going on inside Theresa May's head. The few accounts we have read that claim to have special cerebral insights contradict each other. A second-best strategy is to rely on her revealed preferences. She has changed her views many times, but has been doggedly persistently in her strategy of running down the clock.

So, how about this version of a hard Brexit? Next week's votes go as expected. The meaningful vote is another No - with a smaller margin. It will be followed by two meaningless votes the following day on whether to take no-deal off the table and whether to ask for an extension. Of course, MPs will take no-deal off the imaginary table, and of course they will want to extend. By the end of next week, Brexit will be 14 days away.

14 is an important number. It takes 14 days for parliament to replace a prime minister through a vote of no-confidence. Come Friday evening next week, May can do pretty much whatever she likes. After she won the Tory leadership contest in December, neither the Tory Party nor the House of Commons have any tools to stop a no-deal Brexit. 14 days is also not enough time to pass legislation without government support.

Now assume the following sequence of events. May will announce a final attempt to rescue the deal. She will make another proposal to discuss Brexit at or around the summit - which starts eight days before Brexit. The goal is to confront everybody with a choice between a revised deal or a crash.

We admit that this sounds cold-blooded. The Cooper amendment would have prevented that course of action. But May would still be acting, at least formally, in accordance with the outcome of next week's vote. She does not have to ask for an extension until 10.59pm UK time on March 29. And, by tabling a third meaningful vote, she would have given parliament a final chance to comply with its own wish to take no-deal off the table.

It is possible that she may confront the European Council with an ultimatum on the backstop. In this context we noted a small story about industrial action by French customs officials, who are warning of huge queues in case of a no-deal Brexit, and who are saying that the French government has made inadequate preparations. As ever the protests also have a lot to do with working conditions, but we would agree with the overall assertion that the EU is just as unprepared for no-deal as the UK. The Federation of German Industry, one of the cheerleaders of the European Commission's approach to the Brexit negotiations, noted with horror that a quarter of German companies responded in a survey that they are planning job cuts as a result of a hard Brexit.

Again, we don't know what is going on in May's head. But if she wanted to she could deliver a hard Brexit on March 29, or blackmail the European Council, the House of Commons or both to back her deal, followed by a very short technical extension.

This is not a prediction. But we consider this scenario more plausible than a long extension, let alone a second referendum. In short any option that relies on non-existing political majorities. And it is consistent with what we know.
While I agree that it is impossible to know what is going on in May's head, and that predictions are difficult, I think the above is not quite right. The 2nd and 3rd votes next week aren't meaningless.

It is pretty much certain that her deal will be kicked out by a large margin, the no deal vote will also fail and the vote to extend will succeed. This will be closely followed by the EU making clear that the only extension on offer is 21 or 24 months, and will be conditional on the UK agreeing to hold an election. Or possibly a second referendum with remain on the ballot paper, but that may not be in May's gift, because it might not get through parliament, whereas she can definitely hold an election.

She then has a simple choice.

Option One is to run roughshod over the will of parliament, refuse to ask for the extension, table a third vote on her deal and try to run the clock down even further. This leads us deep into constitutional crisis territory, and potentially an extremely chaotic and messy no deal. Its insane, no normal British PM would try it, but May is not a normal PM.

Option Two is to go for the long extension and either resign as tory leader or call a general election.
Little John

Post by Little John »

So, to implement the democratic result of the referendum is a constitutional crisis.

But, to hold a GE on the back of a foreign power's demands is not a constitutional crisis

Yeah... right
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UndercoverElephant
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Joined: 10 Mar 2008, 00:00
Location: UK

Post by UndercoverElephant »

Little John wrote:So, to implement the democratic result of the referendum is a constitutional crisis.

But, to hold a GE on the back of a foreign power's demands is not a constitutional crisis

Yeah... right
Well, they are both deep crises, but the first one is deeper because it could lead to no deal happening not because the government is "implementing the result of the referendum" but because the government has imploded at a critical moment. We are talking about a situation where parliament has voted to stop no deal and extend article 50, and the Prime Minister has opted for political chaos instead of doing what parliament has instructed. The possibilities if this happens are mind-boggling. They include the EU refusing to accept the legitimacy of the no deal and The Queen intervening. Between them Cameron, Clegg and May would have completely broken British politics.

The EU has the right to impose whatever conditions it sees fit on an article 50 extension. It would not be just demanding the UK hold an election -- it would be demanding the UK commits to doing something to break the deadlock as the price of an extension, on the grounds that if it doesn't do so then the extension is pointless. I don't think this is unreasonable, and I don't think it counts as a constitutional crisis, but if we go down this path and there is a general election in May or June then it will undoubtedly be the most important and hardest to call of any in our lifetimes. Especially if it is held on the same day as EU parliamentary elections that weren't supposed to happen at all (presumably May 23rd).
fuzzy
Posts: 1388
Joined: 29 Nov 2013, 15:08
Location: The Marches, UK

Post by fuzzy »

Funny how they aren't interested in referenda on options that most people would accept, like UK immigration control, uniting Ireland, or making London city a national border.
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