Current Oil Price

Keepz · Post by **Keepz** » 11 Jun 2009, 18:16

some interesting stats and information about trends in consumption in here

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... -good.html

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 11 Jun 2009, 18:42

There goes $73. We are near enough half way to the previous record.

That Telegraph piece is a bit thin on content. It failed to mention that India's consumption hasn't fallen at all, and a global fall of 0.6% is only about 0.5Mb/day. OPEC production cut has been less than 4.2Mbpd because quotas wern't followed.

Recent months have seen China consumption pick up, although I know they are filling their new strategic reserve as fast as they can build tanks.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 11 Jun 2009, 18:59

Or tankers are getting bigger.

Or small old tankers are being replaced by shiny big ones.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 15 Jun 2009, 10:43

I'm sure the information has been posted before but can anyone say roughly what it costs to produce a barrel of oil from the Canadian tar sands? Thanks.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 15 Jun 2009, 11:35

emordnilap wrote:I'm sure the information has been posted before but can anyone say roughly what it costs to produce a barrel of oil from the Canadian tar sands? Thanks.

I suspect the answer to this simple question is anything other than simple. Too much of a moving target.

Tar sands, using current technology, is basically mining of a chemical precursor to oil. It has relatively stable mining costs, and requires a lot of human operators which makes ramping up supply expensive, as the miners need their own support infrastructure in the form of housing, schools, etc.
The fact that the mines are in out of the way places makes this doubly expensive.

The second complicating factor is the energy, water and other resources needed to extract and process the sands. Mostly natural gas at present, although this could be to some extent replaced by other energy sources eg. nuclear. The available supply of NG in the area is uncertain, and expansion would require building long pipelines from remote sources of NG in hostile environments.

Finally, the mining process is more amenable to new technology to improve EROEI than other oil sources. The THAI process looks promising, and may increase the maximum supply (and reduce costs) by requiring less external heat energy and water to extract the 'oil'.

The available evidence is that $35 has caused a rapid roll-back on tar sands investment, which in turn has cut costs of the new developments as labour rates and other costs have fallen disproportionately with demand.

My guess is $50 will sustain modest growth of tar sands supply with existing technology. THAI may double the maximum production rate at similar costs. My guess is that local resource constraints will limit the growth of supply to a maximum of 5Mbpd maybe 15 years from now.

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 23 Jul 2009, 20:50

Another volatile day on the trading floor, $64 to $67.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 24 Jul 2009, 09:31

RalphW wrote:
emordnilap wrote:The available evidence is that $35 has caused a rapid roll-back on tar sands investment, which in turn has cut costs of the new developments as labour rates and other costs have fallen disproportionately with demand.

My guess is $50 will sustain modest growth of tar sands supply with existing technology. THAI may double the maximum production rate at similar costs. My guess is that local resource constraints will limit the growth of supply to a maximum of 5Mbpd maybe 15 years from now.

This graphic suggests that just over $80 is the magic number for Canadian oil sludge,

Oil Supply Cost

Peter.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 24 Jul 2009, 10:30

Thanks for the credit but it wasn't me!

That graph is very interesting.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 24 Jul 2009, 10:31

biffvernon wrote:Another volatile day on the trading floor, $64 to $67.

As roller-coasters go, it's fairly tame, innit?

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 24 Jul 2009, 10:33

emordnilap wrote:
biffvernon wrote:Another volatile day on the trading floor, $64 to $67.
As roller-coasters go, it's fairly tame, innit?

I'm looking forward to Gordon Brown's new ride, "The Black Hole".

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 13 Aug 2009, 13:17

WTI back over $72. Still nearly the cheapest oil around.

Spot price on Tapis over $80.

China's oil demand is back into rapid growth. France and Germany claim to have come out of recession, although I smell massage oil somewhere...

UK and US still sinking like stones.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 13 Aug 2009, 15:07

RalphW wrote:France and Germany claim to have come out of recession, although I smell massage oil somewhere...

One swallow...

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 16 Aug 2009, 22:35

emordnilap wrote:
RalphW wrote:France and Germany claim to have come out of recession, although I smell massage oil somewhere...
One swallow...

Laden or unladen? African or European??

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 21 Aug 2009, 12:47

WTI has just about made it to $74 - half the previous peak.

This smells of 'speculation', the future price is well ahead of the spot price and WTI has rallied noticeably relative to other (non-US) grades. One sharp fall in official US stocks seems to be the trigger, but demand (mostly jet fuel) is still down and stocks mostly above 5 averages.

I guess the speculators believe those rumours that the US and the world are pulling out of recession....

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 25 Aug 2009, 15:46

The price touched $75 for a second or two then programmed selling must have cut in - lost a dollar and a half in a few minutes.

I guess this is what is known as a price barrier...