There are some other older agreements, but I don't think there is one for Ireland. I made the point on a radio programme that you don't need an agreement for a plane to take off, but you do need an agreement for the plane to land.
The question, of course, is whether the older agreements have been displaced by "open skies".
Brexit process
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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UndercoverElephant
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State of play this morning, IMO:
Brexit is going badly wrong, and the tories are stuck in a deep hole, with a ticking bomb. The prospects for getting Brexit legislation through parliament are poor, because Labour will table endless amendments designed to split the tory party while keep Labour together. And the all three of the initial priorities for negotiation (status of EU/UK nationals within UK/EU after brexit, “divorce payment� and Irish border) are snagged, the first two quite seriously. There is no reason to believe any of these problems are going to get any smaller, and the clock is ticking. The “bomb� is crashing out of the EU with no deal at all, which according to a recent survey is unacceptable to 98% of british businesses, including nearly the entire City of London.
The problem is that the tories are trying to find a compromise position between three parties with fundamentally conflicting requirements: brexiteers and remainers in the UK, and the EU. The EU has no intention of giving the UK a decent deal (the UK must be seen to be punished if it leaves). But to strike a deal at all, the EU requires a stable negotiating partner, and the UK can't do this because to do so would require a compromise between brexiteers and remainers – a “soft brexit�, the details of which nobody can agree on and nobody is likely to want, and that is before we try to get the EU to agree to it.
So what happens next? If the tories do nothing except try to hang on, all that will happen is that the situation will continue to deteriorate, while it becomes ever more obvious they have no plan for a “no deal� situation, even though no deal is quite definitely better than the punishment deal we are likely to be offered. Should the bomb go off, the political consequences for the tory party are unimaginably bad. Knowing this to be the case, tory remainers would surely bring down their own government before allowing it to happen. Since even tory brexiteers must know this, then they will be desperately trying to avoid it. But how?
All routes to breaking the deadlock appear to me to involve Theresa May being removed as Tory leader. The one thing that all tories agree on is that May must not be leader when the next election happens, and given the deep problems faced by Brexit, they must also be aware that an election may not be avoidable for much longer. Plus they've got no time to spare – if she's got to go then surely the time to do it is during the summer recess, so a new leader can be in place before the party conferences and brexit negotiations get really real in the autumn.
The one ray of hope the tories have is that the Labour party's position on Europe is a fudge/bluff, and that bluff can be called. But calling that bluff requires calling another election. The result of that election can go one of three ways. The first is a slight tory recovery, and tory majority, leading to the new tory leaders taking over Brexit in a slightly stronger position. The second is a further tory collapse and Corbyn taking over as PM, at which point it is anybody's guess what might happen next. And the third is a result very close to the one we had in June, which I believe would lead to an impasse so enormous that the only way to deal with it would be to ask the EU for a suspension in the Brexit process to give the UK time to organise itself, followed by a second referendum on EU membership.
The bottom line is this: either the tories get rid of Theresa May before the end of the summer, or they, and possibly the UK as well, is heading towards a crisis so severe that the current situation looks like a tea party. We may be heading for that crisis even if May goes, but if she stays then it is guaranteed.
Brexit is going badly wrong, and the tories are stuck in a deep hole, with a ticking bomb. The prospects for getting Brexit legislation through parliament are poor, because Labour will table endless amendments designed to split the tory party while keep Labour together. And the all three of the initial priorities for negotiation (status of EU/UK nationals within UK/EU after brexit, “divorce payment� and Irish border) are snagged, the first two quite seriously. There is no reason to believe any of these problems are going to get any smaller, and the clock is ticking. The “bomb� is crashing out of the EU with no deal at all, which according to a recent survey is unacceptable to 98% of british businesses, including nearly the entire City of London.
The problem is that the tories are trying to find a compromise position between three parties with fundamentally conflicting requirements: brexiteers and remainers in the UK, and the EU. The EU has no intention of giving the UK a decent deal (the UK must be seen to be punished if it leaves). But to strike a deal at all, the EU requires a stable negotiating partner, and the UK can't do this because to do so would require a compromise between brexiteers and remainers – a “soft brexit�, the details of which nobody can agree on and nobody is likely to want, and that is before we try to get the EU to agree to it.
So what happens next? If the tories do nothing except try to hang on, all that will happen is that the situation will continue to deteriorate, while it becomes ever more obvious they have no plan for a “no deal� situation, even though no deal is quite definitely better than the punishment deal we are likely to be offered. Should the bomb go off, the political consequences for the tory party are unimaginably bad. Knowing this to be the case, tory remainers would surely bring down their own government before allowing it to happen. Since even tory brexiteers must know this, then they will be desperately trying to avoid it. But how?
All routes to breaking the deadlock appear to me to involve Theresa May being removed as Tory leader. The one thing that all tories agree on is that May must not be leader when the next election happens, and given the deep problems faced by Brexit, they must also be aware that an election may not be avoidable for much longer. Plus they've got no time to spare – if she's got to go then surely the time to do it is during the summer recess, so a new leader can be in place before the party conferences and brexit negotiations get really real in the autumn.
The one ray of hope the tories have is that the Labour party's position on Europe is a fudge/bluff, and that bluff can be called. But calling that bluff requires calling another election. The result of that election can go one of three ways. The first is a slight tory recovery, and tory majority, leading to the new tory leaders taking over Brexit in a slightly stronger position. The second is a further tory collapse and Corbyn taking over as PM, at which point it is anybody's guess what might happen next. And the third is a result very close to the one we had in June, which I believe would lead to an impasse so enormous that the only way to deal with it would be to ask the EU for a suspension in the Brexit process to give the UK time to organise itself, followed by a second referendum on EU membership.
The bottom line is this: either the tories get rid of Theresa May before the end of the summer, or they, and possibly the UK as well, is heading towards a crisis so severe that the current situation looks like a tea party. We may be heading for that crisis even if May goes, but if she stays then it is guaranteed.
Last edited by UndercoverElephant on 13 Jul 2017, 11:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Little John
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johnhemming2
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UndercoverElephant
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I am not suggesting Labour will frustrate the process by attempting to run it out of time. I am suggesting they will play politics with it, in order to cause as much trouble as possible.johnhemming2 wrote:A timetabling motion can stop votes on amendments.UndercoverElephant wrote:Labour will table endless amendments designed to split the tory party while keep Labour together.
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johnhemming2
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emordnilap
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Who'd be a post-Brexit bee?
Sourcethe hard Brexit, anti-red-tape brigade inside the Tory party are more keen on ridding us of what they see as interfering rules - those regulations that actually protect our wildlife, including essential pollinators like bees
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
Can't see it myself. But if the pro-brexit people want to give it a go then I have one thing to say to them - Challenge accepted, civil war it is.Little John wrote:If Brexit is thwarted either by the Tory Europhiles or by Labour, then there will be serious civil insurrection in this county. I believe I am neither exaggerating nor am I saying this as a neutral observer.
I know which side I would be on.
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Little John
You have no idea of the fire you are playing with.cubes wrote:Can't see it myself. But if the pro-brexit people want to give it a go then I have one thing to say to them - Challenge accepted, civil war it is.Little John wrote:If Brexit is thwarted either by the Tory Europhiles or by Labour, then there will be serious civil insurrection in this county. I believe I am neither exaggerating nor am I saying this as a neutral observer.
I know which side I would be on.
The majority of remainers making the most noise are bleating liberals. A large proportion of Leavers are the significantly less well mannered working class.
If they get brexit they'll riot within a few years anyway - many will lose their jobs, trade agreements not in the uk's favour (take what you can get) and immigration not significantly curtailed - after all the government could have seriously reduced immigration years ago legally but didn't, why would it do so now?
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kenneal - lagger
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All theses *ankers going off to Paris could have a significant effect on the London housing market, dropping prices. This could then carry through into a drop in numbers "investing" in property in London and, as a result, make it vaguely affordable to buy/rent in London again. This would gradually spread out into the surroundings helping us all, and the economy, eventually.
Wouldn't do the banks any good though!
Wouldn't do the banks any good though!
Action is the antidote to despair - Joan Baez
I agree with all your points, and I am a brexit supporter. Fun[?] whatever happens.cubes wrote:If they get brexit they'll riot within a few years anyway - many will lose their jobs, trade agreements not in the uk's favour (take what you can get) and immigration not significantly curtailed - after all the government could have seriously reduced immigration years ago legally but didn't, why would it do so now?
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Lord Beria3
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I work for a big global bank and they sent a internal message today saying that up to 400 UK staff may lose their jobs due to Brexit.
However, they are expanding in London and are keen to take advantage of any opportunities arising from a post-Brexit Britain, so a mixed bag.
There will be some job losses from Brexit but also job creation as London will remain an attractive place to do business for the global rich. All in all, a bit of a contraction, perhaps, but no bad thing in terms of rebalancing the economy, lowering housing prices and so on.
However, they are expanding in London and are keen to take advantage of any opportunities arising from a post-Brexit Britain, so a mixed bag.
There will be some job losses from Brexit but also job creation as London will remain an attractive place to do business for the global rich. All in all, a bit of a contraction, perhaps, but no bad thing in terms of rebalancing the economy, lowering housing prices and so on.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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Lord Beria3
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Regarding the latest Brexit headlines, Labour are committed under the brexiteer Corbyn to a hard Brexit and Labour MP's in the midlands and the north know that their voters want Brexit to happen.
For all the fury and partisan politics, Brexit will still happen in two years.
For all the fury and partisan politics, Brexit will still happen in two years.
Peace always has been and always will be an intermittent flash of light in a dark history of warfare, violence, and destruction
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johnhemming2
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As would any business. The problem is that we start by losing business (and therefore GDP and will potentially regain some of that over time, but not that quickly). It does depend on the nature of the brexit. The fewer the initial changes the less the initial damage.Lord Beria3 wrote:keen to take advantage of any opportunities arising from a post-Brexit Britain