Brexit process

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Jan 2019, 20:10

Good.

The 'deal' betrays Brexit voters and provides a sub-standard EU to Remainers.

Post by **adam2** » 15 Jan 2019, 20:15

Very few people expected that the deal would pass the vote, but I was expecting a defeat by a relatively small margin, not by over 200.

Further division and uncertainty now seems unavoidable.
Some of those who voted against the deal are now hopeful that we will remain in the EU.
Others voted against the deal because they wish to leave "fully and completely" and felt that deal retained too many links with EU.

With the compromise deal that arguably represented staying "partly in" now dead the choice now seems to be to remain in, or to leave completely.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Jan 2019, 20:18

My MP in the Brexit Midlands heartland is a Remainer.

He voted for this crappy deal.

I hope that he now wil be a target for deselection, having shown such poor judgement.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Jan 2019, 20:34

all intensive purposes,

That leapt out of the page at me. Not worth reading if they are writing eggcorns like this.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Jan 2019, 20:37

Little John wrote:So, May's shitty "deal" has been wiped out by a majority against it of 230

Yep. And she's acknowledged it is dead, which means things are going to move very quickly. EU has already ruled out reopening the WA, which means there is no way that the deal can be fixed to get it through parliament.

It's no deal or revoke article 50, and I suspect parliament will now choose either a general election or maybe just a no deal vs remain referendum.

Vortex2 · Post by **Vortex2** » 15 Jan 2019, 20:53

It's only the largest defeat in history ... she's going nowhere.

Little John · Post by **Little John** » 15 Jan 2019, 21:26

UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:So, May's shitty "deal" has been wiped out by a majority against it of 230
Yep. And she's acknowledged it is dead, which means things are going to move very quickly. EU has already ruled out reopening the WA, which means there is no way that the deal can be fixed to get it through parliament.

It's no deal or revoke article 50, and I suspect parliament will now choose either a general election or maybe just a no deal vs remain referendum.

Parliament do not get to choose that. If May's government wins the vote of no confidence and no other deal is tabled or passed, the legislation defaults to no deal.

Post by **clv101** » 15 Jan 2019, 22:24

UndercoverElephant wrote:It's no deal or revoke article 50, and I suspect parliament will now choose either a general election or maybe just a no deal vs remain referendum.

May will win the vote of no confidence, but there's no way she's going to preside over 'no deal' in a couple of months time - or allow any sniff of a GE. Has she any alternative to A50 extension and another public vote?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 15 Jan 2019, 22:34

clv101 wrote:May will win the vote of no confidence, but there's no way she's going to preside over 'no deal' in a couple of months time - or allow any sniff of a GE. Has she any alternative to A50 extension and another public vote?

Assuming the EU doesn't capitulate to the need to remove the backstop, her only other alternative is surely to move sufficiently towards what Corbyn wants so that Labour come onside. Since this would be a softer Brexit, the EU might be willing to consider it.

I find it hard to imagine May accepting a 2nd referendum after everything she's said, but as you say it does seem like the only way to lay the issue to rest. If it's Remain vs No Deal you can't get clearer than that. Even I'd shut up if No Deal won that one.

UndercoverElephant · Post by **UndercoverElephant** » 15 Jan 2019, 22:57

Little John wrote:
UndercoverElephant wrote:
Little John wrote:So, May's shitty "deal" has been wiped out by a majority against it of 230
Yep. And she's acknowledged it is dead, which means things are going to move very quickly. EU has already ruled out reopening the WA, which means there is no way that the deal can be fixed to get it through parliament.

It's no deal or revoke article 50, and I suspect parliament will now choose either a general election or maybe just a no deal vs remain referendum.
Parliament do not get to choose that. If May's government wins the vote of no confidence and no other deal is tabled or passed, the legislation defaults to no deal.

Yes, but there is now no chance that Bercow will allow the situation to drift towards no deal with parliament paralysed.

IMO...

There is going to be a general election where the tories offer a no deal vs may's deal referendum, and labour offers whatever-Corbyn-can-get vs no brexit.

Who will you vote for?

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 16 Jan 2019, 08:19

Unlikely UE.

We are heading towards a softer Brexit more in line with the official Labour Brexit position of a permanent customs union but outside the single market.

At the same time May will try and get further concessions on the backstop to try and get the DUP and backbenchers on board.

Neither Corbyn or May want a 2nd referendum and I've posted links referencing that in this forum in regard to Corbyn and his team.

stumuz1 · Post by **stumuz1** » 16 Jan 2019, 09:15

clv101 wrote: Has she any alternative to A50 extension and another public vote?

That's not the question.

The question is, could she cobble together 330 MPs of all parties to vote to revoke the EU withdrawal act 2018 and replace it with a new act called ' uh um you know thingy act 2019'

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 16 Jan 2019, 09:45

Corbyn mat not want a second referendum, but the polls are indicating that if he does not offer one, Labour will lose a huge amount of support from remainer voters at the next election, whenever that is. One analysis described it as a catastrophic policy by Corbyn, because Labour would suffer far worse than Tories in marginal seats.

Lord Beria3 · Post by **Lord Beria3** » 16 Jan 2019, 11:45

Those People Vote funded polls have been criticised by independent pollsters.

Again Corbyn is right to want to avoid a second referendum.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 16 Jan 2019, 11:58

I don't know how so many people have convinced themselves of the logic of a 2nd vote - you don't watch TV or something?

You can't have a 2nd vote. Either it agrees with the first or differs, which means a tie. You could restrict it to the people who voted in the first, and mandatory - for statistical purity, but it is still faulty maths.

The only logic is 2 more votes with more truthful public evidence between, with a majority verdict of 2/1. There has been no change of EU direction or events other than kabuki theatre and media brainwashing, since the 1st.