Ukraine Watch...

[kenneal - lagger]

Putin has pushed the west into a corner where we have to push Putin into a corner because if we back down he will see it as a weakness and will go for the next domino. We therefore have to destroy him now to stop him from carrying on into Europe when he has rebuilt his forces.

[Vortex2]

It was the second time they had run from war. In 2014 they had left their home in Horlivka after Russian forces occupied the town. Svitlana’s husband had been killed by shrapnel and she said the new authorities refused to compensate her, recording his death as a heart attack.

Svitlana has not received a salary since the corner shop where she worked closed because of the war. Their neighbour Natalia, who worked at the local psychiatric hospital, said her state salary was reduced from £180 to about £50 a month in March and was cut entirely in May.

“We all club together here and put what we can in for meals – one person has a carrot, another some rice,” said Svitlana. “What I don’t understand is there’s all this money coming in from the west but no one comes here, apart from the council workers who bring water.”

Yep, Ukraine is a true democracy where they care for their people.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... line-towns

Besides fighting Russia, Ukraine must also actively combat corruption in order to unleash a massive influx of reconstruction money, the head of the UN development agency told AFP.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... ment-chief

[PS_RalphW]

The mood music in the west is that the high tech weapons are finally getting onto the front line and impacting the logistics of the Russian artillery. So far, only tiny numbers of the rocket launchers are in the field. The last few days there does seem to be more reports of long range missile attacks onto cities across Ukraine, with little reported activity on the front lines. This suggests Russia wants to keep the Ukrainian people in a state of fear as much as targeting military logistics.

There has been hype about a million soldier counter attack by Ukraine in the South, but I wouldn't put much weight on those, it sounds just as likely to be a smokescreen to distract Russia

Russia does seem to have made some movement on negotiating safe passage for Ukrainian grain shipments, but Russia's usual diplomatic strategy is to slam the door on the final day and blame the other side.

Russia is recruiting more soldiers, although it will take months to get them beyond cannon fodder stage, Ukraine refuses to discuss Casualties. There is reporting of Russia preparing the next offensive.

This war is far from over and the flow of Russian gas westward may not restart after summer mainenance

[clv101]

It's worth remembering that wars tend to last years. It's a recent, western phenomenon to measure wars in weeks. This won't be 'over by Christmas'.

[adam2]

A Ukrainian cargo plane has crashed in Kavala, northern Greece, said to have been carrying weapons from Serbia.
No word on survivors, but images available on line suggest that survivors are unlikely.
(one report stated that weapons from Siberia were on board, but that can I suspect be written off as a typo or voice recognition software fail)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62195005

EDIT TO ADD that later reports state that the plane was taking weapons to Bangladesh and that the incident was unrelated to the war in Ukraine.

[PS_RalphW]

The Russian advance in the Donbas does seem to be stalling, leading to Russia showing more interest in diplomatic activity. Ukraine of course is not interested in ceding territory, and won't until the supply of high tech weapons dries up.

Russia could be facing a second Afghanistan, where just enough Western support kept bleeding the Russian military until they gave up.

The West could be facing another Afghanistan where a generation of battle hardened idealogical fighters are born, who my decide to start exporting their services to the highest bidder.

Europe is in a new cold war, with the emphasis on cold, especially in winter

[Vortex2]

This war will leave a grim legacy

I came across a Telegram channel which has a stack of Ukraine war combat videos.

It's like watching WW1 via drone camaeras.

Forget high tech missiles, tanks etc .. it's mostly trench warfare, using good old fashioned grenades and rifles within 100 metres .. often within 20 metres.

That's of course if you survive the snipers and the very precise artillery barrages.

Having seen the videos I can now see how some (most?) front line units lose 80% of their men.

Neither side is going to forgive or forget for a couple of lifetimes.

[PS_RalphW]

... very precise artillery barrages...

The Russian artillery (and Soviet era Ukrainian artillery) are very Imprecise relative to Western guided artillery. The Russians rely on area bombardment with huge collateral damage, hence the large civilian casualties.

The last time the US used large scale unguided bombing was in Iraq.

The reason a handful of long range rocket launchers is shifting the balance is range and precision.

[Vortex2]

The Russian artillery (and Soviet era Ukrainian artillery) are very Imprecise relative to Western guided artillery.

Well, they certainly seem able to drop shells smack into the centre of trenches.
Maybe they use feedback from their drone cameras to correct initial inaccurate shots?

[Mark]

Well, they certainly seem able to drop shells smack into the centre of trenches.
Maybe they use feedback from their drone cameras to correct initial inaccurate shots?

Yes, and schools, hospitals, railway stations, apartment blocks, theatres, shopping centres, houses.....

[Vortex2]

Well, they certainly seem able to drop shells smack into the centre of trenches.
Maybe they use feedback from their drone cameras to correct initial inaccurate shots?

Yes, and schools, hospitals, railway stations, apartment blocks, theatres, shopping centres, houses.....

Most of those places were hit by missiles not artillery.

[Mark]

Well, they certainly seem able to drop shells smack into the centre of trenches.
Maybe they use feedback from their drone cameras to correct initial inaccurate shots?

Yes, and schools, hospitals, railway stations, apartment blocks, theatres, shopping centres, houses.....

Most of those places were hit by missiles not artillery.

So that's OK then ?
Or are you saying that Russian artillery is more accurate than their missiles ?

[Vortex2]

Yes, and schools, hospitals, railway stations, apartment blocks, theatres, shopping centres, houses.....

Most of those places were hit by missiles not artillery.

So that's OK then ?
Or are you saying that Russian artillery is more accurate than their missiles ?

An artillery piece using a spotter or drone will be many times more accurate than an anti-shipping missile from the 1960s being fired from a plane 100+ miles away.

[kenneal - lagger]

It's a good job that the Ukrainians are using modern guided rockets, rather one modern guided rocket, to blow up Russian ammo dumps rather than the area bombing which the Russians have to use so that the collateral damage is much less.

Mind you I'm not sure what the Ukrainians can do as the Russians are apparently using the Zaporizhia nuclear power station as an ammunition and equipment store.

[BritDownUnder]

The West could be facing another Afghanistan where a generation of battle hardened idealogical fighters are born, who my decide to start exporting their services to the highest bidder.

Not really. The carnage of WW1 led to an increase in pacifism certainly in the West. It led to the famous Oxford Oath “This house will under no circumstances fight for its King and country”. And not many fighters in this one are Muslims except for the Chechens who the Ukrainians are doing a good job of whittling down.

Looks like the Russians are trying to buy drones from Iran. Let’s hope the Ukrainians get some more good ones from somewhere to even things up.

I am a bit disappointed there do not seem to be any good guided shells at the moment. I thought there were GPS guided shells but maybe since GPS can be jammed they are of little use.