Current Oil Price

[Andy Hunt]

So I take it you think it's coincidence RGR that the current financial crisis/people defaulting on mortgages/beginnings of recession was preceded by a big oil price spike? That companies currently going to the wall are citing energy costs as a major factor?

Do you believe that the current recession is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with rising energy prices?

And the recent reports of unconventionals projects being shelved due to low oil prices as a result of falling demand are fabricated? More peaknik propaganda, engineered by spies in the mainstream press?

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... php?t=9352

The plunge in oil prices toward $80 a barrel will curtail oil companies' spending on new projects, limit production growth and perpetuate the industry's tendency for boom and bust.

The surge in oil prices since 2004, to an all-time high above $147 a barrel in July, supported an explosion in spending on new oil and gas projects that is now at risk as recession fears prompt analysts to drop crude price forecasts sharply.

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... php?t=9147

CALGARY, Alberta (Reuters) - A double whammy of tumbling crude prices and shaky credit markets could force some companies to delay multibillion-dollar Canadian oil sands projects, cutting the country's overall output forecast.

I notice you had nothing at all to say on either of those threads RGR.

Of course the 'cheap unconventionals' will already have been exploited. But the 'unconventionals' the world will be relying on in the future are those which are not yet even classified as 'reserves' it seems - at least according to the Chairman of Shell UK, who said exactly this at an event I attended yesterday - and which require high oil prices for them to be reclassified from 'resources' to 'reserves'.

Should we believe the Chairman of Shell UK, or should we believe you RGR?

[SILVERHARP2]

Do you believe that the current recession is ABSOLUTELY NOTHING to do with rising energy prices?

You have to be careful of cause and effect here, all asset prices rose because of a credit bubble and all asset prices will fall in a credit contraction, a credit bubble at some point runs out of steam, but I dont think you can attribute high energy prices to it, the price of energy simply got caught in the same bubble, this is not to negate production issues, and to be honest I don't think we will see $10 oil again, but oil could get stuck in a new trading range of $40-$100, but at the same cheaper oil prices wont help the economy, a bankrupt building company now doesnt care what the price of energy is

[Andy Hunt]

http://www.thriftyscot.co.uk/092008/ene ... holds.html

September 10, 2008
An MP’s committee has recently stated that the rising cost of energy in the near future is set to have a profound impact on households as well as on thousands of jobs in the manufacturing sector.

Seems like common sense really, although doubtless RGR will dispute it.

[Vortex]

[RGR]

Would you say you called the speculation "peak" correctly?

I have two main approaches to trading crude flat price. I follow the tightness or otherwise of physical cargo markets, and combine that with a trend-following technical approach. The former signalled bearishness when we were at around $130 on the way up. The latter stayed bullish until we were at around 135 on the way down. I didnt call 148 as the top, and I didnt profit from the last $15 of the speculative frenzy, but then I didnt lose from the fall back either.

Interesting.

[RGR]

So I take it you think it's coincidence RGR that the current financial crisis/people defaulting on mortgages/beginnings of recession was preceded by a big oil price spike? That companies currently going to the wall are citing energy costs as a major factor?

If I recall correctly, more than a few recessions over the past half century have been kick started by a spike in energy or crude prices.

[RGR]

September 10, 2008
An MP’s committee has recently stated that the rising cost of energy in the near future is set to have a profound impact on households as well as on thousands of jobs in the manufacturing sector.

Seems like common sense really, although doubtless RGR will dispute it.

Why would I?

[Bandidoz]

I paid attention to the energy budget in my household, and will do so again if the economics of the situation demand it. I am surprised everyone else doesn't do the same...it strikes me as perfectly rational.

There's the nub; most people want to just carry on as normal and blame someone for the high prices. You can explain why petrol prices haven't fallen as quickly as some might expect, but they just don't want to listen.

I was watching the "Watchdog" programme on BBC1 the other night (a consumer affairs programme that exposes companies who rip people off) and their advice for combatting high energy prices was to "change supplier and ask them if they do discounts for students/disabled/unemployed", nothing on how to save energy....(though they did mention that some people are now spending less than 2 years ago by cutting back.

They had a feature on Ryanair's "Free" flights, where they went on about how some people were being charged a £4 credit card processing fee, and one of the presenters even travelled to the head office to challenge O'Leary, who practically told him to f**k off (and for once, I was on his side). FFS people complaining about a flight for £4! Oh the injustice!

[RGR]

I paid attention to the energy budget in my household, and will do so again if the economics of the situation demand it. I am surprised everyone else doesn't do the same...it strikes me as perfectly rational.

There's the nub; most people want to just carry on as normal and blame someone for the high prices.

I would agree.

[Vortex]

Nobody likes to admit that the solution to an economic problem, like say peak oil, involves changing established behavior for what will be viewed "you can't do it as much, or use as much, as you used to"

Not everyone can afford to get new homes or modify their existing homes to improve their energy efficiency.

Not everyone can afford hybrids. Or did you get yours from your workplace as a test vehicle?

RGR, you appear to speak from a level of certain privilege.

[RenewableCandy]

RGR, you appear to speak from a level of certain privilege.

Blimey that's putting it mildly...

[MacG]

RGR, you appear to speak from a level of certain privilege.

Hehehe! That particular feeling is the immediate precursor to a once popular teambuilding exercise involving torches, pitchforks and scythes...

[RGR]

Nobody likes to admit that the solution to an economic problem, like say peak oil, involves changing established behavior for what will be viewed "you can't do it as much, or use as much, as you used to"

Not everyone can afford to get new homes or modify their existing homes to improve their energy efficiency.

True. But what happens when the payout for more insulation, a more efficient furnace or car is a 2-4 year proposition?

[Ludwig]

I was watching the "Watchdog" programme on BBC1 the other night (a consumer affairs programme that exposes companies who rip people off) and their advice for combatting high energy prices was to "change supplier and ask them if they do discounts for students/disabled/unemployed", nothing on how to save energy....(though they did mention that some people are now spending less than 2 years ago by cutting back.

They had a feature on Ryanair's "Free" flights, where they went on about how some people were being charged a £4 credit card processing fee, and one of the presenters even travelled to the head office to challenge O'Leary, who practically told him to f**k off (and for once, I was on his side). FFS people complaining about a flight for £4! Oh the injustice!

This is why I fear for what's going to happen in Britain. The blame culture has become so entrenched over the past 30 years that it wouldn't even occur to most people now to consider what action they might take, what sacrifices they might make to improve things.

The Icelanders seem to be knuckling down and admitting they f***ed up. The only way the British will respond will be as the overgrown children they are, i.e. riots.

[RogerCO]

RGR, you appear to speak from a level of certain privilege.

Blimey that's putting it mildly...

I think we Brits tend to forget just how 'privileged' the yanks are with their 8 tonne personal carbon habits and all.
Science seems to be starting to tell us that we are on the brink of (less than 10 years from) a major climate tipping point so it might be that peak oil rapidly becomes irrelevant as the rest of the world starts to eye up the dirtiest resident and wonder how to get him to clean himself up or whether we need to actually force him to...
(which is not to say that our 4 tonne personal carbon habit is sustainable - so dont think that we are not in line for some serious scrubbing ourselves)