I get Bob's newsletter and he does interviews on Howestreet, but this is some technical analysis he put out publicly. Otherwise from March he called a dollar low and just views oil as another commodity caught in a bubble, he expects the credit contraction to be the leading force in causing dollar strength and commodity weakness.
Tess wrote:OPEC are panicking and bringing forward their planned November meeting to next week!
I'm sure OPEC will lower the oil production quota, but will they lower oil production?
If your economy is dominated by the oil and gas sector and the price of oil is collapsing that's going to hurt. To then voluntarily reduce production that's going to hurt some more.
(Assuming any production drop is not met by a commensurate rise in oil price).
Tess wrote:OPEC are panicking and bringing forward their planned November meeting to next week!
Panicking because they can't provide enough crude for ever increasing consumption in an exponential manner?
Panicking because their plans to supply the world market from unconventional resources are not going to be financed at $70 oil?
I don't think the economic nature of peak oil has ever been in doubt, has it?
Sustainable economic growth is only possible with low oil prices. Development of unconventionals is only possible with high oil prices. What's wrong with this picture?
Tess wrote:OPEC are panicking and bringing forward their planned November meeting to next week!
So now peakers are getting around to discovering the economic nature of peak oil....which isn't as important as ...lets hear it people, what increases when consumption falls faster than supply declines? Surplus capacity.
I think you're mocking the wrong people again. I trade crude oil for a living. If I didn't understand the economics of peak oil I think I would have made some big losses in the last few months.
The problem is not with the peakniks but with the credit-mongers who believe in endless exponential economic growth with no plan B.
RGR wrote:
Would you say you called the speculation "peak" correctly?
I have two main approaches to trading crude flat price. I follow the tightness or otherwise of physical cargo markets, and combine that with a trend-following technical approach. The former signalled bearishness when we were at around $130 on the way up. The latter stayed bullish until we were at around 135 on the way down. I didnt call 148 as the top, and I didnt profit from the last $15 of the speculative frenzy, but then I didnt lose from the fall back either.
I've heard some talking head analysts saying that everything up to $125 was supported by fundamentals and the rally above that was pure speculative froth. From my analysis I tend to agree. We now wait to see how low we can go before the supply spigots get turned off.
