Ukraine Watch...

[kenneal - lagger]

If the actual fighting ends I can see the EU, or at least the western EU nations wanting to end the sanctions on Russia as quickly as possible as well to ease the pressure on their economies. In five or so years Russia will be back for the rest of Ukraine and Moldova, if it doesn't take it with the south west of Ukraine. We will then have to go back in and show France and Germany what to do again.

God help us all if Trump or his followers get back in in the US! That could well see the end of NATO.

[RenewableCandy]

We might, otoh, get used to life without Russian oil/gas.
This site has a graph using IEA figures, of the progress of renewables which shows that even without any extra govt stimulus whatsoever, EU countries are on their way to building enough renewables to fill the gap (apols in advance if someone else here has already put it up):
https://www.statista.com/chart/27430/el ... on-growth/

[invalid]

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly profitable and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Fixed for you. The rest is conjecture.

You are living in a fantasy world.

There is, though, no immediate sign of Russia pulling out of Ukraine and that’s hardly surprising, because the sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort. In the first four months of 2022, Putin could boast a current account surplus of $96bn (£76bn) – more than treble the figure for the same period of 2021.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... imir-putin

[Mark]

Invalid, can you explain to us what Russia has to be proud of ?

[invalid]

Excellent article by John Simpson: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993

tl;dr Putin has lost this war, and now is just looking for a way out.

The war wasn't lost in the third week.

Many should have known better. Still, I think now it's the west looking to save face.

[PS_RalphW]

I for one have never claimed this war was going to end quickly, or that Russia was going to be totally defeated. Once the initial disasterous attack had ended and Russia regrouped to deploy to its previous strengths of massive rolling artillery barrages to utterly destroy the territory it is trying to capture, then a the war became a much more balanced war of attrition. Both sides will be taking heavy casualties at the moment, and Ukraine desperately needs long range heavy weapons to turn the tide, and these are arriving far more slowly and in smaller numbers than the politicians are promising.

Russia is a far larger and more populous country than Ukraine. It has massive reserves of artillery and conscripts and it will take massive investment by NATO to push them back. The question is how long the Ukrainian people are prepared to keep fighting to regain territory that has been utterly destroyed.

Putin does not want to invade or control Ukraine . He wants to wipe it off the face of the planet.

[Catweazle]

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly profitable and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Fixed for you. The rest is conjecture.

No, you didn't, because you assumed "costly" referred to money whereas I'm thinking of soldiers and equipment.

You make a good point though, I'm shocked at how easily the threats to Western economies have trumped all the rhetoric about freedom and democracy, I really didn't expect them to roll over so quickly.

[automaticearth2]

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly profitable and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Fixed for you. The rest is conjecture.

No, you didn't, because you assumed "costly" referred to money whereas I'm thinking of soldiers and equipment.

You make a good point though, I'm shocked at how easily the threats to Western economies have trumped all the rhetoric about freedom and democracy, I really didn't expect them to roll over so quickly.

[https://www.resilience.org/stories/2022 ... onisation/]

This is a good article. Anything that gets us off of Russian fossil fuels is a good thing. Anything we can do to keep the Russians stuck in the Donbas is a good thing. I think moving forward sanctions on Germany and France could also be a good thing.

[UndercoverElephant]

Excellent article by John Simpson: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60756993

tl;dr Putin has lost this war, and now is just looking for a way out.

The war wasn't lost in the third week

No, it was lost in the first week.

[clv101]

I'm not convinced he's lost yet, or even will eventually.

[invalid]

Putin wanted a lightning operation to replace the government with puppets and leave the Ukrainian infrastructure intact. What is happening now couldn't be any more different, it's painfully slow, incredibly profitable and has zero chance of Ukrainians accepting his puppet.

Fixed for you. The rest is conjecture.

No, you didn't, because you assumed "costly" referred to money whereas I'm thinking of soldiers and equipment.

You make a good point though, I'm shocked at how easily the threats to Western economies have trumped all the rhetoric about freedom and democracy, I really didn't expect them to roll over so quickly.

Fair enough. I believe Russian losses have been estimated down recently even, by our dear government. And the true scale of Ukrainian losses is starting to emerge. It's a war, though, not just a special operation, and yes they've taken losses.

[invalid]

No, it was lost in the first week.

I guess that depends how far you want to stretch the definition of loss, but as a practice that doesn't strike me as particularly useful.

Or, feel free to explain?

[UndercoverElephant]

No, it was lost in the first week.

I guess that depends how far you want to stretch the definition of loss, but as a practice that doesn't strike me as particularly useful.

Or, feel free to explain?

It has already been explained to you on numerous occasions, by several different people.

[Catweazle]

Fair enough. I believe Russian losses have been estimated down recently even, by our dear government. And the true scale of Ukrainian losses is starting to emerge. It's a war, though, not just a special operation, and yes they've taken losses.

The first casualty is truth, as the saying goes. We'll soon know whether the western portrayal of the Russian army as bumbling, un-disciplined, under-equipped conscripts driving vintage armour into a hail of high tech weapons was true. I suspect it was pretty accurate at first but, like lava from a volcano, low tech is difficult to stop if there is an overwhelming supply of it rolling over what has gone before.

I read that China and Russia have stated that they will work together to "redefine" democracy, accusing the west of "monopolising" the definition of it. That's an effective way to deal with your people when they call for democracy, simply redefine it to fit what you already have - it could be an attractive idea for other populous countries like India and maybe the Arabs would like to jump aboard.

I wonder if we will see a new "bloc" of the "New Democracy" countries appear, dividing the worlds power into fewer, larger chunks.

[Vortex2]

Putin has lost this war,

We have ALL lost this war .. even if peace is declared tomorrow.

It has caused vast physical and social damage in the Ukraine.
Thousands of lives have been lost.
The global economic structure has been torpedoed.
Energy and food markets have suffered major disruption.

All because everyone has insisted that Ukraine is a homogenous democracy whereas in reality it's two separate 'states' glued together by an undemocratic regime.

Czechoslovakia resolved its internal differences by forming two countries.
Ukraine could have done the same.

We have all been taken for mugs.