Non-OPEC peak not expected until 2014

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 01 May 2007, 16:02

?This means that exploration success is critical to Asia Pacific?s long-term oil production outlook,? said Broughton, pointing out that ?yet-to-find? oil production is expected to account for 17 percent of the region?s output in 2020 rising sharply to 28 percent in 2025

I firmly believe that I am going to win the lottery in the next five years and hope that Wood Mackenzie can corroborate this.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 01 May 2007, 22:19

Haggis wrote:Kunstler says we'll only see the peak in the rear view mirror.

Assuming that there actually are rear view mirrors around at that time. And that there are people around who have the time to actually look in them. It might be that everyone is so fully occupied coping with a harsh reality that nobody have the time to ponder over "PeakOil" and other esoteric subjects.

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 02 May 2007, 00:56

There's absolutely no way anyone can forecast supply beyond 2012 because projects aren't planned that far in advance with anything more than 'wishful thinking'. Anything further than 5 years away is based on a simple assumption of continued discoveries at some arbitrary rate. They're guessing. Occasionally at the office we get these reports on "Outlook for Global Naphtha/NGLs/Propane/etc Markets 2007-2025" which are equally flights of fancy and only show where the market might end up if every current trend continues unchanged. If Woodmac want to forecast supply capacity at 110.2mb/d by 2025 they need to show me what projects are coming on each year for the next 18 years. I have subscription to WoodMac so I think I'll check.

I'm not one for jumping to 'peak oil!' conclusions but this sort of thing is the opposite extreme. Very bad use of data in my opinion.

Post by **clv101** » 02 May 2007, 01:03

Tess wrote:If Woodmac want to forecast supply capacity at 110.2mb/d by 2025 they need to show me what projects are coming on each year for the next 18 years.

And they need to talk about depletion, talk about Cantarell falling at 13%, Burgen falling at 9%, North Sea falling at 8%, Ghawar and Da Qing both falling etc. Any forecast like that that doesn't specifically address replacing the giants sounds more like propaganda than science to me.

In my mind, replacing the giants is the most significant issue of future forecasts. Most new oil is to replace depletion after all, not to grow absolute supply.

Post by **kenneal - lagger** » 02 May 2007, 02:25

Tess wrote
Occasionally at the office we get these reports on "Outlook for Global Naphtha/NGLs/Propane/etc Markets 2007-2025" which are equally flights of fancy and only show where the market might end up if every current trend continues unchanged.

The present discovery trend is down so what's going to change that?

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 02 May 2007, 07:40

kenneal wrote:
Tess wrote
Occasionally at the office we get these reports on "Outlook for Global Naphtha/NGLs/Propane/etc Markets 2007-2025" which are equally flights of fancy and only show where the market might end up if every current trend continues unchanged.
The present discovery trend is down so what's going to change that?

Well, when the discovery number reaches zero, the downward trend will stop

Whereas in the reports I mentioned, they postulate exponentially growing supply going on long after the bottom-up data can justify it.