Greece Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

Yes, the crisis in Greece and elswhere is only indirectly related to peak oil.

I wonder whether it - the whole debt-fuelled mess - is really a sympton of peak oil, specifically, the EROEI aspect of it. As we ran out of net energy, we ran out of the motor to growth. Not accepting this, people turned to debt (which only makes sense if you expect growth in the future to repay the debt) to give them the growth which was "natural".

The "whole debt-fuelled mess" would have happened anyway. It was the inevitable consequence of two decisions - the decoupling of the US dollar from gold in 1971 and the deregulation of the banking/finance industry.

They are related, not least because it was rising fuel/food prices which caused sub-prime borrowers in the US to start defaulting in large numbers. But I think peak oil/everything is much more important because of the way it blocks off all the normal escape routes from the mess: even if all the bad debts were written off, we still cannot go back to business as usual. That discussion isn't even happening yet (in public mainstream sources at least.) Everyone still talks about economic growth as the solution to all the problems, but it is not going to work this time.

[Ludwig]

Nationalise the banks and seize all the gold.

Leave the Euro and default on all their debts.

Yes... Let's hope they can stop the EMF taking control of their country.

Oh... Hang on:

http://thenewamerican.com/world-mainmen ... eu-control

[Lord Beria3]

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/feb20 ... -f13.shtml

While the actions of the ECB have provided a boost to financial markets, more perceptive observers have pointed to earlier historical experiences. In a comment published in the Financial Times last week, former chief executive of Barclays Bank Martin Taylor noted: “Similarities with the interwar period—a time of persistent false dawns—are multiplying ominously. As in the early 1930s, the shockwaves of the crash, at first confined to those directly involved in financial markets, are painfully touching the lives of increasing numbers of people.”



The economic breakdown of the 1930s saw the sweeping away of all forms of democratic government on the European continent and the imposition of military and fascist dictatorships. This process is now underway again. Greece and Italy are ruled by unelected governments and across Europe the dictatorship of the financial oligarchy is becoming more open. While the shell of the parliamentary system remains, behind it preparations are being for dictatorial forms of rule to implement the social counter-revolution demanded by finance capital. The events in Greece are just the beginning.

Grim warning from the WSWS which you would be wise to take heed of.

[UndercoverElephant]

across Europe the dictatorship of the financial oligarchy is becoming more open

Indeed.

I'd go so far as to say that was is currently happening in (to) Greece is unique - nothing quite like this has ever happened before. Plenty of countries have gone bust, but never before has it happened when that country was part of a monetary union even though it retains its own democratic, sovereign government (supposedly.) If Greece wasn't part of the eurozone, it would have been allowed to default by now. So we have a situation where Greece has to leave the eurozone, but the financial oligarchy don't want this to happen because the precedent being set will determine what happens to the much bigger PIIGS.

We are watching history being made, and it is going to get much more interesting in the coming weeks and months.

[biffvernon]

Peak oil and the biggest crisis of capitalism ever occurring at exactly the same time.

High oil prices contributed to the timing - but the crisis of capitalism would have happened anyway. The peak oil crowd shouldn't try and claim this as our own crisis.

1. Global economic activity is, at least for now, closely linked to oil production.
2. The global financial system is highly dependant on economic growth.
3. Oil production has not grown much for about six years.

Ok so Lehmans, Icelandic banks, Greece and other such landmark economic events cannot by directly attributed to peak oil.

That would be like saying a particular hot day is the result of anthropogenic global warming. No, it's just weather, not climate.

If the global economic system is under stress because growth in energy supply has been difficult to achieve then that stress will be relieved by strain at the weak points: Lehmans, Icelandic banks, Greece etc.

These events are the weather. They become less unlikely as the climate changes.

[UndercoverElephant]

Peak oil and the biggest crisis of capitalism ever occurring at exactly the same time.

High oil prices contributed to the timing - but the crisis of capitalism would have happened anyway. The peak oil crowd shouldn't try and claim this as our own crisis.

1. Global economic activity is, at least for now, closely linked to oil production.
2. The global financial system is highly dependant on economic growth.
3. Oil production has not grown much for about six years.

Ok so Lehmans, Icelandic banks, Greece and other such landmark economic events cannot by directly attributed to peak oil.

That would be like saying a particular hot day is the result of anthropogenic global warming. No, it's just weather, not climate.

If the global economic system is under stress because growth in energy supply has been difficult to achieve then that stress will be relieved by strain at the weak points: Lehmans, Icelandic banks, Greece etc.

These events are the weather. They become less unlikely as the climate changes.

Sort of...

I think we also have to recognise the astonishing levels of irresponsibility and greed that were required to make the financial problems as bad as the are. To blame it entirely on peak oil is to allow certain groups of people (bankers, politicians, regulators and some of the borrowers) off the hook. The fox was left in charge of the chicken coop.

[biffvernon]

Yes that's right. To continue the analogy you can't say Hurricane Katrina's devastation was because of AGW. It was because of a depression that started in East Africa, a lot of warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, building a city in a very silly place, incompetent civil engineering, poor local governance and rubbish federal emergency response.

However, as the frequency of extreme weather events increases....

Patching the weak links in the global financial system will not cure the problem - it will just shift the headline events from one sector to another. The only cure will come from an understanding of the underlying problem. Uncoupling economic activity from hydrocarbon burning has to be central to the prescription.

[jonny2mad]

Uncoupling economic activity from hydrocarbon burning has to be central to the prescription.

cant see that happening by choice or at all in the timeframe

[emordnilap]

That doesn't mean it's not true though.

In Ireland, we're fighting being fracked. On the one hand, we have to present the facts and show where the companies are lying; on the other hand, I keep telling colleagues that the bigger picture is that of getting free of fossil fuels. We have a duty to the future to do away with the whole industry.

[biffvernon]

Uncoupling economic activity from hydrocarbon burning has to be central to the prescription.

cant see that happening by choice or at all in the timeframe

That's why we're doomed!

[UndercoverElephant]

http://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb12/Gre ... atrick.net

The First Dominoes: Greece, Reality, and Cascading Default
(Guest Essay) (February 13, 2012)


I asked frequent contributor Zeus Yiamouyiannis to comment on the coming Greek default. Here is his insightful response.

Greece is the epicenter of a drama that threatens to unwind with all the intrigue and subterfuge of ancient Greek myths and tragedies. As with the legend of Icarus, big, and now bigger, transnational banks provoked the gods with their wax-and-feather financial fabrications to create the appearance of soaring wealth. Now that they have flown too close to the sun and their wings have melted, these banks are being brought to earth by the obligations and consequences imposed by their fabrications.

Rather than take responsibility, these banks seek to appease the gods by sacrificing taxpayers. In fact, if one looks closely, these banks aspire to be gods themselves. They clothe themselves in their indispensability and shield themselves from accountability with tales about how many innocent citizens will be hurt if they don’t get their next bailout. It is as if they say, “We are above the law… We are the law.” Mathematics, legal enforcement, restraint, humility all must fall under the sword of their hubris.

In the end, just as with a Greek tragedy or a Yeats poem, this center cannot hold and things fall apart. When one abuses the laws and principles of mathematics and capitalism, claiming to be a faithful servant, consequence and accountability eventually catch up. The breaking point inexorably nears. Citizens are beginning to think, voice, and act: “We can do without the false idols that call themselves banks. In fact, we need them to be dissolved for us to survive and thrive.”

Reality is the revenge of the gods.

[continues...]

[ujoni08]

Biff, when YOU say that we're all doomed, I get really worried

[frank_begbie]

People are only too willing to believe the Medicine Man, that promises untold riches just around the corner.


To believe otherwise is like telling a child there's no such thing as Father Christmas.



Just vote for me, and I promise, things will better.

Of course things will be tough for a while, but eventually the green shoots will appear once more

"Things can only get better" lol

[adam2]

More here
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-17034677

Greek people loosing patience with idea of a bailout, because the money would have to be returned and so doing will cause real hardship.

German people loosing patience with idea of a bailout because they increasingly feel that it would be throwing good money after bad

[woodburner]

But they are only people, and people don't matter.