Unlikely as it is that Chavez would embargo the US, if it did happen, it would certainly have an impact on the market as everyone would be wondering a) how the US might respond (though probably some action by the US would have triggered the embargo in the first place), and b) where else the US would get its crude from. Essentially they'd have to eat into the large supply of Middle East crude that currently heads to Asia, and of course employ their SPR. Using the SPR would calm things a little, but.... and so on and so on. The sheer uncertainty would cause quite an impact on US crude prices.
But really I do find it hard to believe Chavez would dare do such a thing, even if he could immediately sell his surplus oil elsewhere (China).
Venezuela
Moderator: Peak Moderation
Tess is of course correct.
If Venezuela directed its US oil exports elsewhere in the short term the herd would be spooked. Then market fundamentals would take over and things would settle down.
Perhaps my post should have read "there would in the longer term be little or no effect. - other than somewhat increased shipping costs to the US. The reason Veneuelan oil ends up in the US is because it is handily close by.
If Venezuela was situated in the South China Sea its major clients would no doubt be China and Japan.
Lets see what a well known expert has to say on the fungiblity of Oil
If Venezuela directed its US oil exports elsewhere in the short term the herd would be spooked. Then market fundamentals would take over and things would settle down.
Perhaps my post should have read "there would in the longer term be little or no effect. - other than somewhat increased shipping costs to the US. The reason Veneuelan oil ends up in the US is because it is handily close by.
If Venezuela was situated in the South China Sea its major clients would no doubt be China and Japan.
Lets see what a well known expert has to say on the fungiblity of Oil
and Dogbert clearly knows what he's talking about.People seem to be trying to put think about these scenarios within the status quo. Economic hardship, personal hardship, propaganda, market fears, shortages etc can make people and states do the unbeliveble/irrational/take the only option they seem fit. We've done it in the past and for those who think we have mentally evolved since then I'd say you should revist evolutionary theory.
The end result does not inhibit the action occuring. Was WWII for the best? Did it happen? Was selling rockets to the Iranians to fund terrorists in Nicaragua sensible? Did it happen? Was the third gulf war a good idea?
If we did those things when the stakes probably weren't as high as they are now, when our thought control mechanisms less effective, and when people are more dissociated from their fellow humans than ever before, the chances are we have the capacity and capability to go even further.
The end result does not inhibit the action occuring. Was WWII for the best? Did it happen? Was selling rockets to the Iranians to fund terrorists in Nicaragua sensible? Did it happen? Was the third gulf war a good idea?
If we did those things when the stakes probably weren't as high as they are now, when our thought control mechanisms less effective, and when people are more dissociated from their fellow humans than ever before, the chances are we have the capacity and capability to go even further.
"You can't be stationary on a moving train" - Howard Zinn
If I follow you correctly (and I'm not sure I do), you seem to be suggesting that some sort of outside-the-box reaction is going to occur. Could you expand on that? What sort of thing are you envisaging, when and why?newmac wrote:People seem to be trying to put think about these scenarios within the status quo. Economic hardship, personal hardship, propaganda, market fears, shortages etc can make people and states do the unbeliveble/irrational/take the only option they seem fit. We've done it in the past and for those who think we have mentally evolved since then I'd say you should revist evolutionary theory.
The end result does not inhibit the action occuring. Was WWII for the best? Did it happen? Was selling rockets to the Iranians to fund terrorists in Nicaragua sensible? Did it happen? Was the third gulf war a good idea?
If we did those things when the stakes probably weren't as high as they are now, when our thought control mechanisms less effective, and when people are more dissociated from their fellow humans than ever before, the chances are we have the capacity and capability to go even further.
I don't particularly think my analysis is limited to the 'status quo' - more that I have a certain view on how far the current status quo can be pushed before it snaps into a new one. Do you think we're on the cusp of one of those shifts to a new equilibrium right now?
Yep, I think I should engage my brain whilst trying to write something.
What I was trying to say (I'll try a different angle) is that international actions never seem to be totally irrational at the time of them occuring, primarily for the nation involved - partly due to economic reasons, propaganda, nationalism etc. Whilst they do seen irrational they do not occur. When the situation changes to make then seem not such a stupid course of action then they can occur and then it is only in hindsight that we seen them as being fundamentally flawed and stupid. The actual action is the same whether society sees it as a sensible course or a stupid course, its just the lens through which we see the action that changes.
This lens has the potential to become more distorted than ever before with PO and so we should not underestimate the potential for totally stupid acts to appear like the rational course of action in the future, even near future.
Any better?
What I was trying to say (I'll try a different angle) is that international actions never seem to be totally irrational at the time of them occuring, primarily for the nation involved - partly due to economic reasons, propaganda, nationalism etc. Whilst they do seen irrational they do not occur. When the situation changes to make then seem not such a stupid course of action then they can occur and then it is only in hindsight that we seen them as being fundamentally flawed and stupid. The actual action is the same whether society sees it as a sensible course or a stupid course, its just the lens through which we see the action that changes.
This lens has the potential to become more distorted than ever before with PO and so we should not underestimate the potential for totally stupid acts to appear like the rational course of action in the future, even near future.
Any better?
"You can't be stationary on a moving train" - Howard Zinn
The lens through which Chavez and the people of Venezuela see things is different to the lens with which I see things which is different to how the Bush adminstration sees things.
I guess that through the Chavez lens it still seems pretty irrational and current talk from him is in the main postulating. But under continued threats of assasination, coups, inflamatory rhetoric despite numerous democratic referendums and elections there is a chancce that the lens might change to "what do we have to lose".
In the main I would not like to predict how people can act and how circumstances can change - looking historically everyone is pretty much always wrong.
I guess that through the Chavez lens it still seems pretty irrational and current talk from him is in the main postulating. But under continued threats of assasination, coups, inflamatory rhetoric despite numerous democratic referendums and elections there is a chancce that the lens might change to "what do we have to lose".
In the main I would not like to predict how people can act and how circumstances can change - looking historically everyone is pretty much always wrong.
"You can't be stationary on a moving train" - Howard Zinn
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biffvernon
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Venezuela aims for biggest military reserve in Americas:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international ... 11,00.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/international ... 11,00.html
