5th Thanks for the full explanation. Appreciated and I now understand your viewpoint.
Cheers
Article on PO : Peak Oil – Supply data doesn’t lie
Moderator: Peak Moderation
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emordnilap
- Posts: 14823
- Joined: 05 Sep 2007, 16:36
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PowerSwitch is an amazing resource for those wanting to explore the possibilities of dealing with some level of self-sufficiency and less reliance on established, non-sustainable power sources, hence its name, I think. The sub-head introduces one reason why you might want to do that and so naturally brings along the infighting and semanticism elements.maudibe wrote:As an aside, as a newbie contributor to this forum... there seems to be a lot of infighting and much of it is semantics...
Use it as such and don't taken anyone's word for anything!
I experience pleasure and pains, and pursue goals in service of them, so I cannot reasonably deny the right of other sentient agents to do the same - Steven Pinker
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emordnilap
- Posts: 14823
- Joined: 05 Sep 2007, 16:36
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Pretty good article.
Good to see that such views are spreading amongst the hard headed financial investment community.
You can't argue with something like this:
'Ironically, Figure 2 also plots the optimistic (almost laughable) forecast made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its “World Energy Outlook 2008”. Interestingly, in last year’s “World Energy Outlook”, the IEA stated that in order to fulfil its optimistic projections, the world had to install 64 million barrels per day of new supply by 2030 or the equivalent of six times the Saudi Arabian output! Furthermore, the IEA declared that the energy industry had to invest hundreds of billions of dollars every year to achieve this favourable outcome. '
That chart, even just to date and ignoring projections, is very clear. It is most unlikely we will ever see another production peak. Its the downslope from now on, but a pretty rough downslope. Every time we get into a little recession, the oil price is likely to collapse and thus make investments much harder to justify. Once a recovery looks likely, the price will recover and overshoot, causing another, deeper recession. And so the cycle repeats, perhaps every 12 to 24 months.
Actually, why am I using past tense. Its happening already!
Good to see that such views are spreading amongst the hard headed financial investment community.
You can't argue with something like this:
'Ironically, Figure 2 also plots the optimistic (almost laughable) forecast made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its “World Energy Outlook 2008”. Interestingly, in last year’s “World Energy Outlook”, the IEA stated that in order to fulfil its optimistic projections, the world had to install 64 million barrels per day of new supply by 2030 or the equivalent of six times the Saudi Arabian output! Furthermore, the IEA declared that the energy industry had to invest hundreds of billions of dollars every year to achieve this favourable outcome. '
That chart, even just to date and ignoring projections, is very clear. It is most unlikely we will ever see another production peak. Its the downslope from now on, but a pretty rough downslope. Every time we get into a little recession, the oil price is likely to collapse and thus make investments much harder to justify. Once a recovery looks likely, the price will recover and overshoot, causing another, deeper recession. And so the cycle repeats, perhaps every 12 to 24 months.
Actually, why am I using past tense. Its happening already!
What a shame, seemed quite promising, this human species.
Check out www.TransitionNC.org & www.CottageFarmOrganics.co.uk
Check out www.TransitionNC.org & www.CottageFarmOrganics.co.uk