Strike on at Grangemouth

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 24 Apr 2008, 18:27

The Guardian - 24/04/08

The oil and gas industry has warned that a strike by workers at the Grangemouth refinery in Scotland could force the shutdown of half of Britain's North Sea output at a cost of ?50m a day.

Article continues ...

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 24 Apr 2008, 23:06

There's an awful lot of tinfoil hat posts in this thread...

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 25 Apr 2008, 08:02

So has anything happened? Has the refinery been shut down? Any reports of Anarchy in the UK yet?

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Apr 2008, 08:23

Not yet, but we are waiting with anticipation/trepidation!

Mitch · Post by **Mitch** » 25 Apr 2008, 09:07

Ooooh, I love this guessing game! Let's guess next weeks headlines - here's a starter.

Explosion delays re-opening of refinery.

A massive explosion has seriously delayed the re-opening of the Grangemouth oil refinery in Scotland. The blast occured during strike action. Fortunately the plant was closed and no injuries or fatilities have been reported. "This has caused extensive problems and may even result in the permanent closure of the plant", commented a spokesman for Ineos, the company which owns the refinery. The only eye witness, a security gaurd, who was on duty at the time of the explosion, blamed the company, saying that staff training programs were dismal. "Nobody never told me I couldn't put me eggs in the microwave", he said yesterday. "The bang was so loud I heard it from halfway across the kitchen - completely ruined me tea". The public are urged not too panic as supplies of eggs were stable at this time, although there may be some problems with gas and fuel supplies, but this would only affect minor things like electricity generation and cooking/heating in a few million house-holds. "Don't put eggs in your microwave, especially while the electricity is off" warned an opposition party leader.

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 25 Apr 2008, 09:32

Mitch wrote:Explosion delays re-opening of refinery.

In that case, surely The Sun wouldn't miss the headline opportunity:

Eggsplosion delays re-opening of refinery.

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Apr 2008, 10:08

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... Q&refer=uk

BP Plc said it will start shutting down the Forties Pipeline System, which carries about 40 percent of the U.K.'s oil production, tomorrow because of the closure of Ineos Group Holdings Plc's Grangemouth refinery in Scotland.

"Preparations have begun for the shutdown of the Forties Pipeline System this weekend,'' BP spokeswoman Joanne McDonald said in a telephone interview today. "There won't be any throughput through Forties from Saturday night.''
...
"Once full utilities are available from Ineos we would expect FPS to accept throughput in 24 hours.''
...
The "majority of production'' at the 200,000 barrel-a-day refinery at Grangemouth is already shut, Ineos spokesman Richard Longden said today.

I'm guessing when the pipeline shuts down we'll see the effect on gas here:
http://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Gas/Data/EFD/

Erik · Post by **Erik** » 25 Apr 2008, 10:31

The NBP spot price is already surging apparently. Sorry, no link - but just spoke to a woried looking trader.

I still don't think there will be any physical gas shortages in the UK, unless the shutdown lasts longer than a week.

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Apr 2008, 11:01

Panic buying is moving south...
http://www.lep.co.uk/news/No-need-to-pa ... 4020580.jp

Lancashire Motorists were on Friday told there is no need to panic-buy petrol ahead of strikes at a fuel plant this weekend.
...
Some petrol stations in Lancashire have noticed increases in the number of motorists buying fuel but have not seen cars queueing up on forecourts as they did during fuel blockades three years ago.

Well they soon will be queueing up now they've been told not to!

Meanwhile, out in the North Sea:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessN ... 8820080425

BP has begun preparations for shutting the Forties pipeline system, which supplies nearly half of the UK's crude oil, a spokesman for the company said on Friday.

I guess if the shutdown takes 24 hours, they have to start a few hours earlier just in case it takes longer.

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Apr 2008, 11:10

http://uk.reuters.com/article/businessN ... 3920080424

A UK oil refinery strike this weekend has caused huge volatility in the North Sea physical oil market, where traders are trying to work out the impact on supplies of a possible shutdown of the Forties Pipeline System.
...
"It seems that right now the market's view is that there will be disturbances in the Forties flow based on the strengthening of Forties this week," said another trader. "Buying interest increased for North Sea grades on Tuesday."
...
U.S. crude oil futures for June were nearly $2 above Brent crude futures on Wednesday, now the premium of U.S. crude over Brent has narrowed to around $1.50.
...
Traders said the Forties May loading schedule appeared to be tight and cargoes due to load during a potential pipeline shutdown could be cancelled, rather than simply delayed. "With the crowded loading schedules at Hound Point, it will be difficult to fit in additional Forties cargoes later in the month," said Thomas Stenvoll, UBS oil strategist. Refiners who lose cargoes may be forced to pay up for crude on the spot market.

my emphasis

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Apr 2008, 12:30

Map the disruption here:
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/0 ... _gr_1.html

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 25 Apr 2008, 12:32

mikepepler wrote:Map the disruption here:
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/news/2008/0 ... _gr_1.html

Well the Grauniad is expecting a story, then.

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 25 Apr 2008, 13:27

Tess wrote:There's an awful lot of tinfoil hat posts in this thread...

"Just because you're paranoid it does not mean they are NOT out to get you..."

My mother-in-law operate according to the principle: "If you warn about EVERYTHING, you will be right once in a while. And what a sweet day it is when I can say 'if you had listened to me you had not been in this mess now'".

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 25 Apr 2008, 13:30

MacG wrote:And what a sweet day it is when I can say 'if you had listened to me you had not been in this mess now'".

True . . . but it could be a bit of a Pyrrhic victory in this case.

Post by **mikepepler** » 25 Apr 2008, 13:36

And all of a sudden the media picks up on the story, a week after it started. It's all over the place now. I guess they feel they have permission now the govt has said they "can't guarantee petrol supplies".
http://news.google.com/news?q=grangemou ... &scoring=n