Gas alert as demand and prices rise

Post by **adam2** » 19 Sep 2017, 21:28

Yes, though with the recent significant decline in stocks we need an LNG tanker every few days for some time to both fill storage and keep up with consumption.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 20 Sep 2017, 16:34

Carbon intensity of electricity is rising as solar bows out for the equinox, and wind has been light the last few days. Coal has been brought back on line. Yesterday evening coal was generating 5GW at the 5pm peak, and carbon intensity hit over 400 g CO2/KWh.

None of this is good for our NG stocks.

Post by **adam2** » 22 Sep 2017, 13:25

Gas stocks still only about 15,000GWH despite a recent tanker arrival.
Prices remain high.

Post by **adam2** » 27 Sep 2017, 16:37

According to the prevailing view website, long range gas storage has increased to 10,715 GWH. A mistake I presume ! firstly the storage is broken and secondly even if has been unexpectedly mended It cant be filled that quickly.
I think that they meant 1075 GWH, the same as yesterday.

Looks like an LNG tanker has arrived but despite this stocks remain low and prices high.

Post by **adam2** » 07 Oct 2017, 10:14

For some time, long range storage has been at about 1075. As has been reported the storage facility is broken so I would not expect any significant change in this figure. Perhaps a slow decline as the dregs are extracted and used up.

However a few days ago, the long range storage jumped up to 10715, a figure that I presumed to be a typo or other mistake.
Firstly with the storage being broken, any refilling seemed unlikely.

Secondly, even if it had been mended, the indicated rate of refiling was far in excess of that possible.

Finally the figure "looked like" a typo, note the addition of a single digit between the seven and the five of the original figure.

Then for some days the data was not published. Yesterday publication resumed, and a figure of over 10,000 is still shown for LRS.

My theory is that the LRS has been found to be not completely broken and has been slowly and partially refilled over some weeks, but that this refilling was not recorded until someone noticed, and updated the website thereby giving the impression that about 10,000 had been filled all in one day.
This however is speculation on my part, does anyone KNOW THE FACTS ?

Post by **adam2** » 10 Dec 2017, 12:37

Gas storage remains reasonably well filled, but before any undue optimism breaks out, remember that storage capacity is much reduced if compared to that available a few years ago.

Long range storage is down from about 10,000 to about 4,000. I remain surprised at the sudden increase to 10,000 in LRS a couple of months ago.
At the present withdrawal rate it will all be gone by mid January.

Medium range storage is nearly full at about 13,000. It fluctuates daily but only within a small range.

LNG storage remains fairly well filled at about 9,000, with a generally downward trend.

Prices are high, at near record levels, and may well go higher.
I suspect the gas demand in mainland Europe is higher than normal due to both cold weather and the ongoing French nuke outages increasing gas used for power generation.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 10 Dec 2017, 14:00

The big issue is where the LNG tankers are and whether any are being redirected. I don't think that is on the prevailing view website.

Thanks, however, for the useful information that you continue to provide.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 10 Dec 2017, 14:44

Yes, thanks Adam2. Does the liquid gas in cryo tanks count as short or medium storage? It would be fairly easy to increase the liquid storage, although it is a dangerous explosion risk, unless they run a slick security operation.

Post by **adam2** » 10 Dec 2017, 15:32

The liquefied natural gas is not counted as either long range or medium range storage, it is listed separately as "LNG" and at present contains about 10,000 GWH.

johnhemming2 · Post by **johnhemming2** » 10 Dec 2017, 16:28

I remember daily consumption tending around the 300 mcm mark which I think is about 3000 GWh (or is it?).

What is current daily consumption?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 11 Dec 2017, 19:28

Fortes pipeline shut down for leak. Spot NG prices at near record levels. Cold weather expected to continue.

Interesting times

63p Therm Dowm fron 74p. 35mcm off line out of 120mcm daily production.

fuzzy · Post by **fuzzy** » 11 Dec 2017, 20:01

Not to worry, they only said -15C where I live..

RenewableCandy · Post by **RenewableCandy** » 11 Dec 2017, 23:57

Everyone else is away so I can indulge myself in intensive training. This means eating all the time-expired food in our cupboards (latest discovery is pate, bbe 2010!) and running the heating at 14 degC, thus easing the country's gas supply situation.

I'm probably going to save us about Â£50 doing just these 2 things.

Fille says I'm mad.

In other news, NatGrid says the carbon intensity of electricity is about 380 atm, target is to get it down to < 100 g/kWh.

emordnilap · Post by **emordnilap** » 12 Dec 2017, 11:15

RenewableCandy wrote:This means eating all the time-expired food in our cupboards (latest discovery is pate, bbe 2010!)

RenewableCandy wrote:In other news, NatGrid says the carbon intensity of electricity is about 380 atm, target is to get it down to < 100 g/kWh.

No chance without a collapse or something similar (?).

There's quite a few wind farms gone up in the west of Ireland lately, some in clear view of Donald's Trump's golf club. You'd think he'd be well up for wind power - he could make serious money from it. Just like oil, gas, coal, water, once your infrastructure's in place you're selling stuff that costs you nothing.

Post by **adam2** » 12 Dec 2017, 11:30

johnhemming2 wrote:I remember daily consumption tending around the 300 mcm mark which I think is about 3000 GWh (or is it?).

What is current daily consumption?

Consumption varies of course, but a reasonable average for the UK in winter is about 350 mcm.
That is about 3850 GWH (multiply by 11 for an approximate conversion.)

Total UK gas stocks vary but are about 25,000 GWH today.

Therefore stocks are about a weeks consumption. It would however be most improbable that the ENTIRE national demand would be supplied from storage.
A more realistic scenario might a reduction in imports such that national demand is met partly from stock, partly from UK production, and partly from the reduced imports.
Meeting about a quarter of demand from storage would give about a months supply.

No great accuracy can be claimed in this, but it gives an idea.

Any significant reduction in imports for more than a week or two would be most serious and would probably require that a state of emergency be declared.